I blocked all the Varets and their burner accounts, so I am blissfully unaware of whatever vitriol they are currently spewing on this post. I am sure I am better off not reading whatever hot garbage they are doling out.
Lisa Ramirez is the best candidate in this race. Her campaign is concentrated in Riverside and on building a ground game, which is why a south OC-based journalist might think she lacks name recognition. He isn't seeing the big Lisa Ramirez billboard off the 15 every day or the cross-canvassing with candidates in that area.
As the daughter of an immigrant, I want someone with real experience in this area. We desperately need someone like Lisa on our Homeland Security Committee to fight for immigration reform.
I have seen Esther speak three times and have been less and less impressed each time. At Canyon Dems last month, when asked about war, she said, "I am not sure if we should come to South Korea's aid if North Korea invaded," which is absolutely absurd and makes no sense. US foreign policy in Asia is built around protecting Taiwan and South Korea. This is in addition to her tone deaf stance on Gaza. It just shows she had the policy depth of a teaspoon.
This cycle, I have knocked on hundreds of doors for Canyon Dems and Lisa. And yes, I agree with Jeff that the vast majority of people are not this involved. However, if Esther makes it to the general, she'll need people like me. I won't lift one finger to help. Many others won't either. I can focus my time on races for candidates I actually believe in who don't go out of their way to troll me, my friends, or my family. Maybe then she'll realize that alienating the base of involved Democrats you need is not a winning strategy. It’s like she wants to “own the libs” herself. She’s blue MAGA.
Hi Nina. While we obviously disagree on who’s the best choice to represent us, we do agree on the worst one. I honestly don’t understand why any true Dems are riding so hard for Esther. Just a few weeks ago on our Coto FB page she said she was a “Common Sense Democrat” but then she also called herself a “Centrist Republican” in the same sentence. Bizarre. So maybe your “Blue MAGA” reference is on point.
This article wasn't up for an hour before Esther's husband chimed in. Again. Like always with the same spiel.
Give us a reason to vote FOR Esther instead of threats about how bad we are if we don't. If the Dems lose, the lesson is "Put forward better candidates" not that voters are idiots. The tone from this campaign is so elitist and condescending.
And citing a betting site?! Goddammit why are the biggest fundraisers just the worst.
Sorry, but that "Put forward better candidates" is not reality. Most candidates randomly come out of the woodwork and have never been involved in politics or the party before. There is no mythical basket of great candidates hiding somewhere where we can just pull one out for whatever office we need. I know this because I've seen this happen for a couple of decades now. We get what we get and have to work with it.
Grooming good candidates might work, if the political environment stayed the same from election to election. But it doesn't. And agreeing which people should be groomed to be the next candidate doesn't work either. We're Democrats. We don't agree on anything. Heck, our One Job at the CADEM convention was to get candidates endorsed. And we failed.
One way that We the People can help put forward better candidates is by not supporting hopelessly flawed ones. Candidates like EKV need to lose 1) so she herself never thinks of running again and 2) weak-sauce candidates like EKV don’t wade into races and elbow out more compelling/more promising candidates.
This is because of a lack of Dem leadership and organization. The party should be identifying potential Congressional candidates months (years?) in advance of the election and prepping them. Whether it's current local electeds or via training programs.
The basic question that always comes up is: where do we look for them? Yes, Dems and Reps play the game of moving currently elected officials up the ladder. But some are just not qualified, some don't want to move up, etc. And OC is not a hotbed of Dem elected officials. The county is still purple. Within the CD40 area, we have very, very few elected Dems. One that I can think of out of all the city council members. None for AD or SD. None for county (Foley lives outside of CD40, I believe). We have a hard enough time getting people onto city councils.
And that leads into the next problem: who feeds the bottom of this ladder? Where do *they* come from? Who do we put on city councils and school boards? The Canyon Dems have tried many times to get people into those seats. It's a really hard problem to solve, but we keep trying.
Identifying someone for Congress years in advance is virtually impossible. Sometimes getting a "nobody" into Congress on the first try works, but very, very rarely. You can point to Porter, Min and Levin as examples, but I have 10x that in candidates that didn't make it.
Building the bench isn't easy, but it's fruitful work. The fact that there are county wide offices that are going unchallenged by the democratic party in this year of all years is kinda wild to me. I know candidate recruitment isn't easy, but lacking even a warm body is nuts.
Democrats should really start getting involved on the ground with teachers and small business owners who are already strong Democrats and get the to run for bottom of the ballot races. Not even city council, I'm talking water board, school board, etc.
We need known people to run for council, assembly and Congress. People who come from nowhere are unreliable and have no track record.
Getting business owners is very difficult. Most want to remain non-partisan from the view of their business because they obviously don't want to discourage buyers. "Money has no color."
Teachers, maybe. PTA is more likely. I have an article here that goes into this whole thing deeper and more complete. I'm going to update it for this lower level and include HOA boards, etc.
I think you are wildly optimistic to think we will know what happens in CD40 next week. Nowadays California tends to count only 1/3 of the ballots on Election Day, and maybe a total of 60% to 65% of the ballots in the first four days after Election Day. So if it at all close for that 2nd spot, it could easily take 2-4 weeks after Election Day to know the result.
I cannot find forensics to back up the claim of only 33% of ballots counted on election day as a general rule (implied by the "tends to" comment). A spot check shows approximately 2/3 of the ballots counted on election day (CA40 2024, some other races). Also, as noted elsewhere in this thread, the AP called that 2024 election early the next morning after the election day. What may influence a late count is the delay some Democrat voters have invoked to see who to vote for governor. The Canyon Dems spokesperson recommended late voting, as an example, in the intro to their candidate forum. There are a handful of close races where determination could not be made within a few days, but that has been more of an exception, not the general rule. Also, in case anyone is not aware, certified results are always later. CA EC 15372 specifies within 30 days of the election. Most results (winners) are known within a few days, however.
In the 2024 election, AP called the race two days after Election Day. Of course, more ballots were to be counted and the official certification comes later.
Jeff - describing a Nazi supporting piece of shit like Young Kim as affable and nice is beyond the pale. Both Young Kim and Calvert are fascists - full stop.
Not sure why Pearlman thinks the way he does about Young Kim. Maybe he had some interviews with her or other interaction, not sure. I've never seen her and she has zero interaction with the general public, no townhalls, zero interaction on socials (all broadcast messages via her handlers), no public events on her calendar when I've checked. She does show up for city events unannounced to the general public (not on her calendar) such as July 4th. She does have photo ops with various law enforcement officers. She does meet privately with Chambers of Commerce.
On the political side, she herself claims to be an ardent Trump supporter which is consistent with her voting record.
Of course, now the choice is either Young Kim or Ken Calvert, very likely unless there is an unusual change in the totals as the outstanding ballots arrive and are counted. Nevertheless, painting Young Kim in a favorable light personally like Pearlman does is somewhat curious.
I will be voting for Lisa Ramirez. I like her immigration attorney resume. Esther has a very lame poster slogan. If Young Kim faces a Dem for the general, her poster touting her as a Trump Republican will disappear overnight.
Simple truth is -- when a candidate (or anyone for that matter) shows you who they are, believe them. An impetuous millennial who impulsively responds to social media posts instead of creating content that resonates with voters. A constant stream of "look at me, I have money so you have to vote for me." instead of real plans and objectives. We have that right now in the current administration, why would we add yet another unqualified influencer?
Jeff, I dig your posts, truly. I just hope anyone who hasn't yet voted really SEES your message. I've seen Joe and Lisa in action, they make connections that people can relate to. I really think Lisa has the stamina and temperament to be successful and fight for all CA 40 constituents.
And if anyone really wants to have some fun -- go deep into FEC and see WHERE the majority of Esther's donations have come from -- not CA 40. I'd question the 'true' support when most of your funding comes from people who will not be impacted at all by the outcome.
I’m 100% Esther because I know her, her honesty, and she has a genuine desire to flip this seat and make change. We need truth and genuine people to fight against this regime.
Number of (not dollar amounts) is an indication of how widespread support is, and it's valid to look at both in-district and out-of-district numbers. I haven't validated those personally although I could. One can argue that 5k donating persons in the district is not large, but then I would say compare to the opponents and it is a favorable comparison. Outside the district, the number of donations indicates support for common issues affecting not only CA40 but the country overall. This is consistent with being in alignment with policy points as documented on Esther's web site.
This is exactly why I just can't seem to "take one for the team" and vote for Esther. Between the two of them they don't have enough smarts or humility to just tell is why Esther would be a great choice. There is enough bad-mouthing and shit-talking already in our current administration to add any more. Just show one ounce of respect for the other candidates, and tell me what Esther will do to improve CA40 and I will lock in my vote for her today.
Esther's web site policy page has detailed information including in many cases lists of legislation she will advocate for or against. This is something not seen in the opponent's sites in general, where they have more general paragraphs of policy positions. For a deeper dive, Esther has longer postings in threads app, organized by topic.
Did you even bother to read her website? It's all there in detail.
Fuck humility, this election is about getting Calvert and Kim the hell out of our district and out of our Congress! end of story! if I thought you had the best path to do that I would vote for you!
She is reactive. Perhaps she is perfectly calm and clear-headed when she sits down (or whomever she hired) to write her website or some of her more thoughtful Instagram posts (haven't seen anything fitting that description yet) but she has been nothing but reactive on this and other threads. Is this how you want your CA40 rep to behave? Not for me, thanks.
First off, if this race is supposedly already “settled” and Kerr has no viable path, it raises an obvious question: why are Joseph and Esther Varet still feverishly trying to settle it?
People who genuinely believe a candidate is irrelevant don’t obsess over them daily, use multiple fake profiles to flood their comment sections, push opposition narratives, or spend months trying to disqualify them in the eyes of voters.
And maybe the funniest/most ironic part of their “facts over vibes” posturing is that they haven’t seemed to notice that Pearlman’s entire political analysis of Esther from the beginning has basically BEEN vibes.
This is the same guy who met her for coffee and came away writing some version of: “She drinks black coffee and says ‘fuck’ a lot, therefore she’s cool and politically compelling.”
That’s not hard-nosed political analysis. That’s freshman-year podcast bro logic.
Frankly, the Varets should be grateful Pearlman operates this way, because if he had approached this race with genuine political rigor from the beginning instead of personality-based infatuation, he might have concluded much earlier that CA-40 voters care about coalition-building, district fit, labor relationships, public service credibility, and electoral math more than whether someone curses over an Americano.
I wasn't able to find so far a comment about the race being "settled". I may have missed that as I don't follow all threads, but I searched in this one and only found one occurrence of that word. The arguments I've seen so far are not in support of that. The concern being mentioned is that since the Democrat vote won't be consolidated, two Republicans may clear the Primary.
It must be fucking exhausting to think in circles like that all the time?
Maybe you don't understand percentages but the explanation is rather fucking simple: Joe and Lisa have no fucking chance to make it past the primary, but if enough votes are siphoned to them and away from Esther Kim Varet that could cause her to fall short of Young Kim and Ken Calvers's vote count in which case CA40 would be lost to the motherfucking Republicans by sundown on June 2nd. That's the fucking relevancy you fucking twit.
So far, I haven't seen any evidence of this being a push-poll. This would be contrary to Ben Tulchin's statements on his polling philosophy. He's an adamant critic of push-polling.
You say voters don’t know who Lisa Ramirez is. Honestly, they probably don’t know who any of them are. It was surreal when I canvassed for Joe Kerr in 2024. I would ask, “Have you heard of Joe?” They mostly had not. I got curious and if they answered no, I started following up with, “Have you heard of Young Kim?” They had not. The voters seemed to either know both candidates, or neither.
That's what I've found from knocking on hundreds of doors in the last few CA40 election cycles. Most people don't know anything about down ballot races. Almost everyone I talked to in this election did not know who Esther was or that our new district was 30% OC and 70% Riverside County. Low voter turnout is our biggest challenge!
I have to admit I didn’t pay attention to congressional elections until I started advocating for common sense gun laws. I learned quickly that the Republican Party, specifically Mitch McConnell, was preventing bi/partisan lifesaving legislation from being voted on. When 90% of voters want background checks on all gun purchases and 1 man can prevent that from happening, it’s not democracy. That’s when I started paying attention!
I’m with Esther. We don’t need another polished Congressman that lies to your face, manipulates the media and tells people what they want to hear. Esther is genuine about her intentions to save our democracy, has creative solutions and doesn’t put up with anyone’s BS!
For more information on Esther’s policy statements, she has a detailed list on her website. For those who have expressed wanting more, she has been doing a deep dive on the threads app.
From reading this and following, first, I’m grateful to Jeff and his entertaining writing about our local drama. Second, if Esther wins, sure that’s a count for the D’s but then we’re stuck with her. I’m honestly not sure it’s worth it, and I despise KC and YK from way way back.
I just got shifted over to IG from another site, and there I saw reactions to Jeff's comments on the current campaign in CA-40.
What I saw there was disturbing for a couple of reasons, one of which was that there were some comments presenting as fact some obviously ill-conceived and unsupported opinions regarding the candidacy of Lisa Ramirez.
:Catphamtastic" declared, with no supporting facts, that Ramirez has the most experience. I have to ask just how he reached that conclusion? Experience? How? Where? When? How much? In what area of governance and legislation?
If you're going to make assertions, you must back them up, or they're just idle speculation, and therefore worthless - or, if we are to assume the worst - attempts to use lies to convert public opinion. Excuse me, but we already have a president for that, thank you very much.
There is a candidate in this race with an extensively demonstrated record of a wealth of exactly the experience necessary to hit the ground running and produce results, and it's not either Lisa or Esther.
Esther has done a fine job of pretty much flushing herself down the tubes through her childish behavior and attacks on other candidates and her utter failure to produce any sort of useful experience or qualifications for the job of advocate for all the people.
Lisa, has a career as an immigration lawyer, and while it is laudable in its intent, simply is not in any way applicable to the kind of knowledge and established relationships necessary for the job at hand. No, there has simply been no applicable experience demonstrated there.
"Ninavmk12" asserted that Lisa has the experience, expertise and proven track record necessary - but again, anything to support her opinion was sadly lacking.
What was truly ironic there was that, instead, those are all qualifications Joe Kerr so frequently and accurately points to in his own extensive record of proven experience and accomplishments in his decades of true public service.
"jscergi" also claimed Lisa Ramirez to be "highly qualified," but with nothing behind the assertion.
In the face of all this, I hope you are by now asking yourself why, when it is so obviously not the case, do these people continue to ignore the obvious truths personally, and then to present a string of hollow assertions as fact to the rest of us?
It's pretty laughable to say that an immigration attorney has "no applicable knowledge" to be in Congress. With this administration? Wouldn't we want an IMMIGRATION ATTORNEY? Who understands DHS and ICE? Who has beaten them in court multiple times?
Lisa would be an enormous asset to the Democratic caucus and the Homeland Security Committee, where we need accountability for ICE and DHS. I think many people would say, "I want an immigration attorney to hold the most xenophobic and anti-immigrant administration in the last century accountable."
You may prefer another candidate to Lisa, but it's totally disingenuous to say an immigration attorney isn't the right fit for Congress in 2026.
Nina, first of all, thank you for having the courage and courtesy to stand up to post and respond as yourself, making your opinions and statements your own for all to see. I truly respect that, and I believe that should be why we’re all here - to speak to each other plainly and with the courage of our convictions - unlike Mr. Ferret, who assumes the silly pseudonym in hopes it will actually gain him some credibility after making such a fool of himself so often under his real name.
But to our point(s) then, I first of all did not say that Ms Ramirez has no applicable knowledge. If you check my post, you’ll see that I stated that what she lacks is the experience. There’s a difference, and of course it’s not a small one, nor is it simply semantics.
We desperately need someone with Joe Kerr’s proven record in Washington and Sacramento, getting important and life-changing legislation passed for the people who sent him there, and blocking the constant attempts to diminish those gains by others working for powerful and often subversive forces; just the kind who are holding so much power right now.
As I said, I do appreciate Ms Ramirez’s particular calling, but having a measure of expertise in one specialized area is just not going to get it done for us at this critical point in our lives. We simply can’t afford to enter this contest with a one-trick pony.
And I say this as someone with skin in the game. I have to remind my wife time and again not to leave the house without her documents on her person, and as a vet, believe me when I tell you how that really pisses me off, because this is not the country I signed up to put my ass on the line for.
I think a winning combination for all of us would be to have an advocate like Ms. Ramirez here where the people need her the most, working with Joe Kerr in Washington for a country where no one has to worry about some geared-up, half-wit fugitive from Meal Team-6 screaming “Do you haf yoah pepahs?” at them, either on the street or in their home.
You're so right, Joe's experience as a serial failed candidate in five local races and counting should be excellent learning experience. Unfortunately he seems never to learn from his mistakes. And his Trumper MAGA campaign managers i77 abandoned him last month because he already emptied his pension and has nothing left for them to grift from. btw jscergi is Lisa's sister ...
As far as I am aware, there are only three sets of factual objective public data on the CA40 race, and all three point to Esther Kim Varet being the only candidate with any path whatsoever to make it past June 2nd: FEC reports, voter polls, and betting markets. Everything else is just hot air. So have at it but know that you are spinning nonsense.
number of social media followers: At a minimum, it's an indication of name recognition. Many follow as they are supportive. Number of followers also includes some who troll, of course.
endorsements: Quantitative is easy with a simple count. Qualitative is more subjective of course.
"If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the problem." ~ Eldridge Cleaver
Reading the comments attached to Joe Kerr's statement here yesterday, I found Cleaver's famous observation popping into my head, I suppose, because it fits the statements by some people who were whining about the fact that, while Kerr is obviously the best candidate of the three, they had to vote for others with little or no qualifications for the job because those candidates were certain to throw far more money into their campaigns, therefore buying themselves a win.
These are the kind of folks who appear to believe that critical thinking means Siskel and Ebert.
At a time when voices nationwide are shouting from the rooftops about the horrible and distorting effects of money on our politics at every level, they say, "Oh well, what can we do but vote as we're told by the money? They're the ones who always win, aren't they?"
Well, no, dear heart, if you actually pay attention to real news, you see that they don't always win. Trump and the truckloads of corrupt cash are being beaten from coast to coast, and they're taking their losses from ordinary people who are mad as hell and aren't going to take it any more; people with the spine to get up on their hind legs and say "Watch this!" as they go into the voting booth and make their choice for the underfunded underdog who will actually fight to change their lives for the better. Allowing yourself to be bulldozed under all the cash just leaves you at the bottom the heap - again.
As I said in my own comments yesterday, it's undeniably obvious that Joe Kerr is the only one in this race with the experience, history and established relationships to get back in there and put his punches where they need to go in the fight for you and your family.
Really now, you and I both know that some shaky business acumen (where did those local galleries disappear to, along with the jobs that disappeared with them?) along with some philanthropy, or a law practice specializing in a single area (and no, that's not actually public service) simply don't in any way prepare you for the job.
You have the powerful resource you need to fight back, but you, yes you, have to give him the chance. Now, stop whining, and as Garrison Keillor used to say, "...get up and do what needs to be done!"
I blocked all the Varets and their burner accounts, so I am blissfully unaware of whatever vitriol they are currently spewing on this post. I am sure I am better off not reading whatever hot garbage they are doling out.
Lisa Ramirez is the best candidate in this race. Her campaign is concentrated in Riverside and on building a ground game, which is why a south OC-based journalist might think she lacks name recognition. He isn't seeing the big Lisa Ramirez billboard off the 15 every day or the cross-canvassing with candidates in that area.
As the daughter of an immigrant, I want someone with real experience in this area. We desperately need someone like Lisa on our Homeland Security Committee to fight for immigration reform.
I have seen Esther speak three times and have been less and less impressed each time. At Canyon Dems last month, when asked about war, she said, "I am not sure if we should come to South Korea's aid if North Korea invaded," which is absolutely absurd and makes no sense. US foreign policy in Asia is built around protecting Taiwan and South Korea. This is in addition to her tone deaf stance on Gaza. It just shows she had the policy depth of a teaspoon.
This cycle, I have knocked on hundreds of doors for Canyon Dems and Lisa. And yes, I agree with Jeff that the vast majority of people are not this involved. However, if Esther makes it to the general, she'll need people like me. I won't lift one finger to help. Many others won't either. I can focus my time on races for candidates I actually believe in who don't go out of their way to troll me, my friends, or my family. Maybe then she'll realize that alienating the base of involved Democrats you need is not a winning strategy. It’s like she wants to “own the libs” herself. She’s blue MAGA.
Hi Nina. While we obviously disagree on who’s the best choice to represent us, we do agree on the worst one. I honestly don’t understand why any true Dems are riding so hard for Esther. Just a few weeks ago on our Coto FB page she said she was a “Common Sense Democrat” but then she also called herself a “Centrist Republican” in the same sentence. Bizarre. So maybe your “Blue MAGA” reference is on point.
She doesn't know what she is even talking about most of the time. She seems to spend most of her time fighting with people online.
While I am a Lisa supporter, Lisa OR Joe would make a far superior representative!
This article wasn't up for an hour before Esther's husband chimed in. Again. Like always with the same spiel.
Give us a reason to vote FOR Esther instead of threats about how bad we are if we don't. If the Dems lose, the lesson is "Put forward better candidates" not that voters are idiots. The tone from this campaign is so elitist and condescending.
And citing a betting site?! Goddammit why are the biggest fundraisers just the worst.
Sorry, but that "Put forward better candidates" is not reality. Most candidates randomly come out of the woodwork and have never been involved in politics or the party before. There is no mythical basket of great candidates hiding somewhere where we can just pull one out for whatever office we need. I know this because I've seen this happen for a couple of decades now. We get what we get and have to work with it.
Grooming good candidates might work, if the political environment stayed the same from election to election. But it doesn't. And agreeing which people should be groomed to be the next candidate doesn't work either. We're Democrats. We don't agree on anything. Heck, our One Job at the CADEM convention was to get candidates endorsed. And we failed.
One way that We the People can help put forward better candidates is by not supporting hopelessly flawed ones. Candidates like EKV need to lose 1) so she herself never thinks of running again and 2) weak-sauce candidates like EKV don’t wade into races and elbow out more compelling/more promising candidates.
This is because of a lack of Dem leadership and organization. The party should be identifying potential Congressional candidates months (years?) in advance of the election and prepping them. Whether it's current local electeds or via training programs.
The basic question that always comes up is: where do we look for them? Yes, Dems and Reps play the game of moving currently elected officials up the ladder. But some are just not qualified, some don't want to move up, etc. And OC is not a hotbed of Dem elected officials. The county is still purple. Within the CD40 area, we have very, very few elected Dems. One that I can think of out of all the city council members. None for AD or SD. None for county (Foley lives outside of CD40, I believe). We have a hard enough time getting people onto city councils.
And that leads into the next problem: who feeds the bottom of this ladder? Where do *they* come from? Who do we put on city councils and school boards? The Canyon Dems have tried many times to get people into those seats. It's a really hard problem to solve, but we keep trying.
Identifying someone for Congress years in advance is virtually impossible. Sometimes getting a "nobody" into Congress on the first try works, but very, very rarely. You can point to Porter, Min and Levin as examples, but I have 10x that in candidates that didn't make it.
Building the bench isn't easy, but it's fruitful work. The fact that there are county wide offices that are going unchallenged by the democratic party in this year of all years is kinda wild to me. I know candidate recruitment isn't easy, but lacking even a warm body is nuts.
Democrats should really start getting involved on the ground with teachers and small business owners who are already strong Democrats and get the to run for bottom of the ballot races. Not even city council, I'm talking water board, school board, etc.
We need known people to run for council, assembly and Congress. People who come from nowhere are unreliable and have no track record.
Getting business owners is very difficult. Most want to remain non-partisan from the view of their business because they obviously don't want to discourage buyers. "Money has no color."
Teachers, maybe. PTA is more likely. I have an article here that goes into this whole thing deeper and more complete. I'm going to update it for this lower level and include HOA boards, etc.
https://substack.com/@garykephart/note/p-199641748?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=fa2a6
I think you are wildly optimistic to think we will know what happens in CD40 next week. Nowadays California tends to count only 1/3 of the ballots on Election Day, and maybe a total of 60% to 65% of the ballots in the first four days after Election Day. So if it at all close for that 2nd spot, it could easily take 2-4 weeks after Election Day to know the result.
Very good point
I cannot find forensics to back up the claim of only 33% of ballots counted on election day as a general rule (implied by the "tends to" comment). A spot check shows approximately 2/3 of the ballots counted on election day (CA40 2024, some other races). Also, as noted elsewhere in this thread, the AP called that 2024 election early the next morning after the election day. What may influence a late count is the delay some Democrat voters have invoked to see who to vote for governor. The Canyon Dems spokesperson recommended late voting, as an example, in the intro to their candidate forum. There are a handful of close races where determination could not be made within a few days, but that has been more of an exception, not the general rule. Also, in case anyone is not aware, certified results are always later. CA EC 15372 specifies within 30 days of the election. Most results (winners) are known within a few days, however.
In the 2024 election, AP called the race two days after Election Day. Of course, more ballots were to be counted and the official certification comes later.
Yes, it would take about 3 weeks.
Well, this got a bit crazy. Let's all take deep breaths and watch some Happy Days.
Jeff - describing a Nazi supporting piece of shit like Young Kim as affable and nice is beyond the pale. Both Young Kim and Calvert are fascists - full stop.
Not sure why Pearlman thinks the way he does about Young Kim. Maybe he had some interviews with her or other interaction, not sure. I've never seen her and she has zero interaction with the general public, no townhalls, zero interaction on socials (all broadcast messages via her handlers), no public events on her calendar when I've checked. She does show up for city events unannounced to the general public (not on her calendar) such as July 4th. She does have photo ops with various law enforcement officers. She does meet privately with Chambers of Commerce.
On the political side, she herself claims to be an ardent Trump supporter which is consistent with her voting record.
Of course, now the choice is either Young Kim or Ken Calvert, very likely unless there is an unusual change in the totals as the outstanding ballots arrive and are counted. Nevertheless, painting Young Kim in a favorable light personally like Pearlman does is somewhat curious.
I will be voting for Lisa Ramirez. I like her immigration attorney resume. Esther has a very lame poster slogan. If Young Kim faces a Dem for the general, her poster touting her as a Trump Republican will disappear overnight.
And throw our democracy down the drain. Ewww a Jill stein voter. No better than MAGA. Prove me wrong.
Judging by the way you communicate, I sometimes wonder if you’re a middle school student cosplaying as an adult.
I’ll prove you wrong. This trolling post makes you look like an idiot. Stop doing that. Free advice.
Simple truth is -- when a candidate (or anyone for that matter) shows you who they are, believe them. An impetuous millennial who impulsively responds to social media posts instead of creating content that resonates with voters. A constant stream of "look at me, I have money so you have to vote for me." instead of real plans and objectives. We have that right now in the current administration, why would we add yet another unqualified influencer?
Jeff, I dig your posts, truly. I just hope anyone who hasn't yet voted really SEES your message. I've seen Joe and Lisa in action, they make connections that people can relate to. I really think Lisa has the stamina and temperament to be successful and fight for all CA 40 constituents.
And if anyone really wants to have some fun -- go deep into FEC and see WHERE the majority of Esther's donations have come from -- not CA 40. I'd question the 'true' support when most of your funding comes from people who will not be impacted at all by the outcome.
I’m 100% Esther because I know her, her honesty, and she has a genuine desire to flip this seat and make change. We need truth and genuine people to fight against this regime.
Their campaign regularly brags about how much support they're getting from outside the district! That isn't a flex...
Haters gonna hate - with no facts just vibes. Vibes don’t win races. Hard work does.
Number of (not dollar amounts) is an indication of how widespread support is, and it's valid to look at both in-district and out-of-district numbers. I haven't validated those personally although I could. One can argue that 5k donating persons in the district is not large, but then I would say compare to the opponents and it is a favorable comparison. Outside the district, the number of donations indicates support for common issues affecting not only CA40 but the country overall. This is consistent with being in alignment with policy points as documented on Esther's web site.
This is exactly why I just can't seem to "take one for the team" and vote for Esther. Between the two of them they don't have enough smarts or humility to just tell is why Esther would be a great choice. There is enough bad-mouthing and shit-talking already in our current administration to add any more. Just show one ounce of respect for the other candidates, and tell me what Esther will do to improve CA40 and I will lock in my vote for her today.
Esther's web site policy page has detailed information including in many cases lists of legislation she will advocate for or against. This is something not seen in the opponent's sites in general, where they have more general paragraphs of policy positions. For a deeper dive, Esther has longer postings in threads app, organized by topic.
Did you even bother to read her website? It's all there in detail.
Fuck humility, this election is about getting Calvert and Kim the hell out of our district and out of our Congress! end of story! if I thought you had the best path to do that I would vote for you!
She is reactive. Perhaps she is perfectly calm and clear-headed when she sits down (or whomever she hired) to write her website or some of her more thoughtful Instagram posts (haven't seen anything fitting that description yet) but she has been nothing but reactive on this and other threads. Is this how you want your CA40 rep to behave? Not for me, thanks.
WRT "(or whomever she hired) to write her website", Esther's site states "This is written by me, not some Washington consultant..."
source: https://www.estherkimvaret.com/priorities
Can we all agree that Joanie loves Chachi?
Go Esther!!! Truth and power to fight this regime!
LOL. Can you ask your friend to stop trolling and insulting voters?
First off, if this race is supposedly already “settled” and Kerr has no viable path, it raises an obvious question: why are Joseph and Esther Varet still feverishly trying to settle it?
People who genuinely believe a candidate is irrelevant don’t obsess over them daily, use multiple fake profiles to flood their comment sections, push opposition narratives, or spend months trying to disqualify them in the eyes of voters.
And maybe the funniest/most ironic part of their “facts over vibes” posturing is that they haven’t seemed to notice that Pearlman’s entire political analysis of Esther from the beginning has basically BEEN vibes.
This is the same guy who met her for coffee and came away writing some version of: “She drinks black coffee and says ‘fuck’ a lot, therefore she’s cool and politically compelling.”
That’s not hard-nosed political analysis. That’s freshman-year podcast bro logic.
Frankly, the Varets should be grateful Pearlman operates this way, because if he had approached this race with genuine political rigor from the beginning instead of personality-based infatuation, he might have concluded much earlier that CA-40 voters care about coalition-building, district fit, labor relationships, public service credibility, and electoral math more than whether someone curses over an Americano.
I wasn't able to find so far a comment about the race being "settled". I may have missed that as I don't follow all threads, but I searched in this one and only found one occurrence of that word. The arguments I've seen so far are not in support of that. The concern being mentioned is that since the Democrat vote won't be consolidated, two Republicans may clear the Primary.
It must be fucking exhausting to think in circles like that all the time?
Maybe you don't understand percentages but the explanation is rather fucking simple: Joe and Lisa have no fucking chance to make it past the primary, but if enough votes are siphoned to them and away from Esther Kim Varet that could cause her to fall short of Young Kim and Ken Calvers's vote count in which case CA40 would be lost to the motherfucking Republicans by sundown on June 2nd. That's the fucking relevancy you fucking twit.
Oh look. It's one of the fake Joe Varet accounts.
I could easily say the same thing.
EVK has no chance of winning the general. Her only effect is to siphon voters away from the Dem candidate who has lived in that district for 30 years.
EVK has been there all day by comparison.
Thank you for the softball.
I do.
I also recognize a bogus push poll when I see one.
Hope you didn't pay a lot for that.
So far, I haven't seen any evidence of this being a push-poll. This would be contrary to Ben Tulchin's statements on his polling philosophy. He's an adamant critic of push-polling.
You say voters don’t know who Lisa Ramirez is. Honestly, they probably don’t know who any of them are. It was surreal when I canvassed for Joe Kerr in 2024. I would ask, “Have you heard of Joe?” They mostly had not. I got curious and if they answered no, I started following up with, “Have you heard of Young Kim?” They had not. The voters seemed to either know both candidates, or neither.
That's what I've found from knocking on hundreds of doors in the last few CA40 election cycles. Most people don't know anything about down ballot races. Almost everyone I talked to in this election did not know who Esther was or that our new district was 30% OC and 70% Riverside County. Low voter turnout is our biggest challenge!
I think it is wild that people consider their US Congressional Representative to be “down-ballot” but that is exactly what they think.
I have to admit I didn’t pay attention to congressional elections until I started advocating for common sense gun laws. I learned quickly that the Republican Party, specifically Mitch McConnell, was preventing bi/partisan lifesaving legislation from being voted on. When 90% of voters want background checks on all gun purchases and 1 man can prevent that from happening, it’s not democracy. That’s when I started paying attention!
I’m with Esther. We don’t need another polished Congressman that lies to your face, manipulates the media and tells people what they want to hear. Esther is genuine about her intentions to save our democracy, has creative solutions and doesn’t put up with anyone’s BS!
For more information on Esther’s policy statements, she has a detailed list on her website. For those who have expressed wanting more, she has been doing a deep dive on the threads app.
From reading this and following, first, I’m grateful to Jeff and his entertaining writing about our local drama. Second, if Esther wins, sure that’s a count for the D’s but then we’re stuck with her. I’m honestly not sure it’s worth it, and I despise KC and YK from way way back.
I just got shifted over to IG from another site, and there I saw reactions to Jeff's comments on the current campaign in CA-40.
What I saw there was disturbing for a couple of reasons, one of which was that there were some comments presenting as fact some obviously ill-conceived and unsupported opinions regarding the candidacy of Lisa Ramirez.
:Catphamtastic" declared, with no supporting facts, that Ramirez has the most experience. I have to ask just how he reached that conclusion? Experience? How? Where? When? How much? In what area of governance and legislation?
If you're going to make assertions, you must back them up, or they're just idle speculation, and therefore worthless - or, if we are to assume the worst - attempts to use lies to convert public opinion. Excuse me, but we already have a president for that, thank you very much.
There is a candidate in this race with an extensively demonstrated record of a wealth of exactly the experience necessary to hit the ground running and produce results, and it's not either Lisa or Esther.
Esther has done a fine job of pretty much flushing herself down the tubes through her childish behavior and attacks on other candidates and her utter failure to produce any sort of useful experience or qualifications for the job of advocate for all the people.
Lisa, has a career as an immigration lawyer, and while it is laudable in its intent, simply is not in any way applicable to the kind of knowledge and established relationships necessary for the job at hand. No, there has simply been no applicable experience demonstrated there.
"Ninavmk12" asserted that Lisa has the experience, expertise and proven track record necessary - but again, anything to support her opinion was sadly lacking.
What was truly ironic there was that, instead, those are all qualifications Joe Kerr so frequently and accurately points to in his own extensive record of proven experience and accomplishments in his decades of true public service.
"jscergi" also claimed Lisa Ramirez to be "highly qualified," but with nothing behind the assertion.
In the face of all this, I hope you are by now asking yourself why, when it is so obviously not the case, do these people continue to ignore the obvious truths personally, and then to present a string of hollow assertions as fact to the rest of us?
It's pretty laughable to say that an immigration attorney has "no applicable knowledge" to be in Congress. With this administration? Wouldn't we want an IMMIGRATION ATTORNEY? Who understands DHS and ICE? Who has beaten them in court multiple times?
Lisa would be an enormous asset to the Democratic caucus and the Homeland Security Committee, where we need accountability for ICE and DHS. I think many people would say, "I want an immigration attorney to hold the most xenophobic and anti-immigrant administration in the last century accountable."
You may prefer another candidate to Lisa, but it's totally disingenuous to say an immigration attorney isn't the right fit for Congress in 2026.
Nina, first of all, thank you for having the courage and courtesy to stand up to post and respond as yourself, making your opinions and statements your own for all to see. I truly respect that, and I believe that should be why we’re all here - to speak to each other plainly and with the courage of our convictions - unlike Mr. Ferret, who assumes the silly pseudonym in hopes it will actually gain him some credibility after making such a fool of himself so often under his real name.
But to our point(s) then, I first of all did not say that Ms Ramirez has no applicable knowledge. If you check my post, you’ll see that I stated that what she lacks is the experience. There’s a difference, and of course it’s not a small one, nor is it simply semantics.
We desperately need someone with Joe Kerr’s proven record in Washington and Sacramento, getting important and life-changing legislation passed for the people who sent him there, and blocking the constant attempts to diminish those gains by others working for powerful and often subversive forces; just the kind who are holding so much power right now.
As I said, I do appreciate Ms Ramirez’s particular calling, but having a measure of expertise in one specialized area is just not going to get it done for us at this critical point in our lives. We simply can’t afford to enter this contest with a one-trick pony.
And I say this as someone with skin in the game. I have to remind my wife time and again not to leave the house without her documents on her person, and as a vet, believe me when I tell you how that really pisses me off, because this is not the country I signed up to put my ass on the line for.
I think a winning combination for all of us would be to have an advocate like Ms. Ramirez here where the people need her the most, working with Joe Kerr in Washington for a country where no one has to worry about some geared-up, half-wit fugitive from Meal Team-6 screaming “Do you haf yoah pepahs?” at them, either on the street or in their home.
We will have to agree to disagree, sir. I like Joe Kerr, but I think Lisa is what this district needs.
We'll see how everything pans out on Tuesday!
Don't you know that immigration court isn't real court? It's like being a traffic court attorney ffs!
Another Esther/Joseph burner account.
Sure. I'm sure targeted immigrants like Narciso Barranco feel that way.
Bye, Joseph.
You're so right, Joe's experience as a serial failed candidate in five local races and counting should be excellent learning experience. Unfortunately he seems never to learn from his mistakes. And his Trumper MAGA campaign managers i77 abandoned him last month because he already emptied his pension and has nothing left for them to grift from. btw jscergi is Lisa's sister ...
As far as I am aware, there are only three sets of factual objective public data on the CA40 race, and all three point to Esther Kim Varet being the only candidate with any path whatsoever to make it past June 2nd: FEC reports, voter polls, and betting markets. Everything else is just hot air. So have at it but know that you are spinning nonsense.
Other factual data to consider:
number of social media followers: At a minimum, it's an indication of name recognition. Many follow as they are supportive. Number of followers also includes some who troll, of course.
endorsements: Quantitative is easy with a simple count. Qualitative is more subjective of course.
"If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the problem." ~ Eldridge Cleaver
Reading the comments attached to Joe Kerr's statement here yesterday, I found Cleaver's famous observation popping into my head, I suppose, because it fits the statements by some people who were whining about the fact that, while Kerr is obviously the best candidate of the three, they had to vote for others with little or no qualifications for the job because those candidates were certain to throw far more money into their campaigns, therefore buying themselves a win.
These are the kind of folks who appear to believe that critical thinking means Siskel and Ebert.
At a time when voices nationwide are shouting from the rooftops about the horrible and distorting effects of money on our politics at every level, they say, "Oh well, what can we do but vote as we're told by the money? They're the ones who always win, aren't they?"
Well, no, dear heart, if you actually pay attention to real news, you see that they don't always win. Trump and the truckloads of corrupt cash are being beaten from coast to coast, and they're taking their losses from ordinary people who are mad as hell and aren't going to take it any more; people with the spine to get up on their hind legs and say "Watch this!" as they go into the voting booth and make their choice for the underfunded underdog who will actually fight to change their lives for the better. Allowing yourself to be bulldozed under all the cash just leaves you at the bottom the heap - again.
As I said in my own comments yesterday, it's undeniably obvious that Joe Kerr is the only one in this race with the experience, history and established relationships to get back in there and put his punches where they need to go in the fight for you and your family.
Really now, you and I both know that some shaky business acumen (where did those local galleries disappear to, along with the jobs that disappeared with them?) along with some philanthropy, or a law practice specializing in a single area (and no, that's not actually public service) simply don't in any way prepare you for the job.
You have the powerful resource you need to fight back, but you, yes you, have to give him the chance. Now, stop whining, and as Garrison Keillor used to say, "...get up and do what needs to be done!"
in the immortal words of an anonymous shitposter
i ain't reading all that
i'm happy for u tho
or sorry that happened