The great, terrifying, exhausting, exciting CA-40 experiment
In less than a week, we should know a lot. Glub.
So, in California politics, few things fascinate me more than the CA-40 congressional race. Not Spencer Pratt—who sucks. Not Steve Hilton, who also sucks. Not the ensuing Chris Kluwe-Gracey Van Der Mark royal rumble.
Nope, I’m all CA-40.
Why? Because there are so many riveting possible outcomes, and each one tells us something funky, unique, revealing, (possibly) dispiriting.
Now, as you surely know, CA-40 is a rejiggered post-Prop 50 district, and what was once something of a political tossup is now, oh, +9 Republican. Meaning: A. It’ll be very tough for a Democrat to take; B. The DCCC won’t be funneling money this way.
As we speak, there are five primary candidates. You have the incumbent, the socially likeable-yet-politically-soulless Republican Young Kim, who has incumbency in her favor. You have Ken Calvert, Kim’s fellow Republican who was the 41st congressman until his district was fed to the llamas. You have Democrat Esther Kim Varet, the straight-outta-LA art guru. You have Democrat Lisa Ramirez, an immigration attorney who performs very well in public events. And you have Joe Kerr, who lost to Young Kim in the last election and spent much of his career as a firefighter.
And, again, there are soooooo many different potential outcomes. So I’m gonna use my experience and knowledge and Brad Pitt looks to offer the most likely scenarios, in order …
Calvert and Esther wind up in the general: So I’m certainly not particularly confident with this stab, but hear a brother out: Calvert and Young Kim have devoted the past several months to gouging one another’s eyes out. It’s turned into a MAGA Battle Royale of I WILL PEE ON THE PRESIDENT’S LEG TO SHOW I LOVE HIM v. I WILL POOP ON THE PRESIDENT’S BED TO SHOW I LOVE HIM. I mean, it’s sooooooo embarrassing—especially for Young Kim, a not-long-ago somewhat moderate politician who has stooped to Calvert’s low level.
But the thing is, Donald Trump is not popular right now. Like, yes, the MAGA assholes love him. But no one else does. And I do believe both Calvert and Young Kim have overplayed their hands on this one—and one of them potentially won’t last. Calvert has more money than Young Kim, and he’s been around since the Tyler Administration. So that gets him the edge.
As for Esther—fuck, I don’t even know how to explain this one. Early in my career, a media critic in Nashville wrote of me, “If there is one cow pie in a field, The Tennessean’s Jeff Pearlman will step in it.” I feel the same way about Esther, a boastful political novice with more swagger than experience. But … she has money. And a recent (reliable) pollster had her in the mix. And what displeases political insiders doesn’t necessarily reach the general public.
Calvert and Young Kim wind up in the general: I mean, it’s not an unlikely outcome. And if you enjoy videos like this, Calvert-Young Kim should be your jam.
Here’s the truth, and I know I’ll catch some shit for it: Young Kim’s strength is her warmth. Like, nobody hates her personally. But Calvert, by all accounts, is just a dickhead. So, if this comes down, I’ll pull for Young Kim. With my nose held.
Young Kim or Calvert wind up facing Joe Kerr: Bluntly, I don’t see it. Kerr is a good dude. Seriously, I have nary a bad word for him. I respect him, admire him, would love him as my rep. But it’s kinda like the time Hall & Oates reunited to release the “Marigold Sky” album in 1997. The general take from the critics: Not awful, but the period has kind of passed. I’m pretty sure the general Kerr consensus is: The period has kind of passed.
Also, Joe just doesn’t have the money. And as much as it sucks, these things cost lots of money.
Young Kim or Calvert wind up facing Lisa Ramirez: As I’ve stated, Lisa would be my preferred candidate. I dig her message, dig her experience, dig her flow.
She’s the Nas of this race.
However, she’s the 1992 Nas—two years before “Illmatic” dropped and changed music. Again, I know I’ll get plastered for this, but her campaign just hasn’t taken off. You can see it financially, you can see it name-recognition wise. She entered a bit late, missed the early debates, hasn’t landed the Tyson-esque body blows an upstart needs.
How to explain it best? In politics, there are two universes. Universe 1 is people (like me) who pay attention from jump, and know the highs, the lows, the lefts, the rights. We know who Perry Meade is, who Nina Linh is. We can tell you about Esther’s missteps, about Joe’s history. On and on. But Universe 1 is occupied by, oh, 6 percent of the population. Universe 2, on the other hand, is the dude who skips the local candidate forum (even though it’s 50 feet away at his nearby church) to watch Jets-Packers on a Thursday night. It’s the people who know TRUMP, VANCE, NEWSOM, and maybe PRATT (from old reality TV). Those folks fill out a ballot either based on gut, party ID or a friend’s suggestion. They’re the vast majority.
And while it’s dispiriting, very few of those folks know Lisa Ramirez exists.
They just don’t. Sigh.
•••
In conclusion: Who the hell knows? If Esther somehow makes the general, she’d be wise to stop responding to every negative Instagram post. If Calvert and Young Kim make the general, we can all take a nap and watch this lovely scene from the “Happy Days” finale. And if Joe or Lisa make the general, they can drive by my house, blasting a track off of “Marigold Sky” while flashing the middle finger toward my bedroom window.
It’d be appropriate.
I blocked all the Varets and their burner accounts, so I am blissfully unaware of whatever vitriol they are currently spewing on this post. I am sure I am better off not reading whatever hot garbage they are doling out.
Lisa Ramirez is the best candidate in this race. Her campaign is concentrated in Riverside and on building a ground game, which is why a south OC-based journalist might think she lacks name recognition. He isn't seeing the big Lisa Ramirez billboard off the 15 every day or the cross-canvassing with candidates in that area.
As the daughter of an immigrant, I want someone with real experience in this area. We desperately need someone like Lisa on our Homeland Security Committee to fight for immigration reform.
I have seen Esther speak three times and have been less and less impressed each time. At Canyon Dems last month, when asked about war, she said, "I am not sure if we should come to South Korea's aid if North Korea invaded," which is absolutely absurd and makes no sense. US foreign policy in Asia is built around protecting Taiwan and South Korea. This is in addition to her tone deaf stance on Gaza. It just shows she had the policy depth of a teaspoon.
This cycle, I have knocked on hundreds of doors for Canyon Dems and Lisa. And yes, I agree with Jeff that the vast majority of people are not this involved. However, if Esther makes it to the general, she'll need people like me. I won't lift one finger to help. Many others won't either. I can focus my time on races for candidates I actually believe in who don't go out of their way to troll me, my friends, or my family. Maybe then she'll realize that alienating the base of involved Democrats you need is not a winning strategy. It’s like she wants to “own the libs” herself. She’s blue MAGA.
This article wasn't up for an hour before Esther's husband chimed in. Again. Like always with the same spiel.
Give us a reason to vote FOR Esther instead of threats about how bad we are if we don't. If the Dems lose, the lesson is "Put forward better candidates" not that voters are idiots. The tone from this campaign is so elitist and condescending.
And citing a betting site?! Goddammit why are the biggest fundraisers just the worst.