Jeff, how about having coffee with the Democrats running for Governor and getting them to drop out of the race. Rock, paper, scissors is a better method than their current stubborn insistence on staying in. I have my preference, but seriously would be happy if there was just one D on the ballot. As to the 40th--let's see whether Republicans actually come out for the primary; the mood is not good right now and likely to get worse. OTOH, there is a good D candidate running against incumbent Sanchez in the newly configured 41st. Hector de la Torre who might pull some votes from Downey and Brea to compete.
Your assertion that the 3 Democratic candidates will collectively receive only 20-24% of the primary vote doesn’t make any sense. Accordingly, your entire theory about outcome is subject to question. I don’t know if Democrats can win the 40th. There are numerous factors involved including voter intensity and other significant factors. There is a chance that two Republicans will be in the general election but who knows. It is certainly too soon to be this defeatist. I spent almost 50 years running political campaigns, including my 18 years living and working in Orange County and running successful campaigns at every level of government in the County. That doesn’t make me qualified to guess outcomes but it does provide some experience based opinions to be noted.
I had lots of NPP and a few Republicans who said they would vote for Joe after I knocked on their doors. With a little money and support from grassroots orgs, I think there's a chance to flip CA40
Democrats have been significantly overperforming in these off-year and special elections. I don't believe for one minute we will end up with Kim AND Calvert. Shawn Harris just got 40% of the vote in MTG's district in Georgia (it's going to a runoff) in yesterday's special election. That is a significant overperformance of Kamala in 2024. He probably won't win the runoff, but that is a spectacular performance in that district.
CD-40 is not MTG's district. Republicans will rely on the Latino vote that moved over to Trump in 2024 staying with Republicans. That is a BIG assumption that I don't think will hold. I think it will end up being Trump and Varet (although I like Ramirez more).
Jeff, let's not go all full doom and gloom just yet. We know there is going to be vote splitting on both sides. But I think the current environment is so hostile to the GOP, that their turnout is going to be suppressed or even vote blue as an anti-maga vote. The only real solution is to get behind one candidate now (yes, Esther Kim Varet), and stay super focused.
I cannot get behind someone who told me I was "spewing lies" on her social media ads and never responded when I asked what lies I was spewing. She keeps her designer jeans in a glass case. I call her the spoiled spoiler. She posted something about Joe and Lisa not being patriotic because they won't drop out. She's a social media influencer, not a serious public servant.
Kerr could have won last time with the right backing. And if Dems had turned out. He lost by ~20K votes. With ~47K Dems not voting.
Kerr pulled 5% of the GOP vote without trying.
He was outspent almost 11-1 by YK.
With the blue tsunami coming. Any GOP with less than a 10 point registration advantage is vulnerable. Dems have been overperforming by an average of 15 points nationwide.
Couple that with a newly drawn district with close to 100K union households. With significant union support. Including CTA, IBEW, NUHW, UFCW, and many others.
Heck, YK published a poll that showed Kerr in a three way tie with YK and Calvert.
Check out bluevoterguide.org Joe has been busy getting endorsements because no one wants to donate to this safe red new district except people on social media around the country. I wonder what the return on investment is for Esther's ad budget? And how many donors are voters in CA40?
We know Esther didn’t vote for him last election, because she’s a carpetbagger from LA, and we know you didn’t vote for him, since you don’t live in the old or new CA-40, but I’m pretty sure Lisa voted for him last time, and if every registered Dem had, we wouldn’t have Young Kim filling up our seat in Congress right now.
Yes! I didn't realize he only needed 17,843 more votes. I think there were more than 25K registered Democrats who didn't vote. If the other candidates truly wanted to flip this district, they would support Joe with his name recognition and union support. I feel the same way about Katie Porter running for Senate and now Governor. She should have stayed in Congress and not risked losing that seat and taking resources away from other candidates.
Support for Mass Deportations: A June 2024 poll found that 53% of Hispanics favored a "new national program to deport all undocumented immigrants,", while a separate July 2025 survey reported that 50% of Hispanic voters supported mass deportations.
Varet should bail as she is too thin skinned and annoying to win.
In my personal experience canvassing extensively for the last 2 congressional races - Asif Mahmood and Joe Kerr, voter turnout is what is hurting our chances to flip CA40. Maybe with the increase in union households, we can get the first union firefighter on the ballot in November. The risk of 2 MAGAs on the ballot is incredibly frustrating, but I don't think money is the answer. Joe Kerr managed to beat the school board democrat in the primary and narrow the gap significantly in the general election. He had ZERO support financially or with grassroots organizations last time. Maybe the trend of outperformance by Dems will push him over the edge and we can get rid of 2 MAGAs for the price of one! It would be great if the safe democrat districts would share their resources with CA40. I'm not confident an immigration attorney can win, especially after learning 30% of ICE agents are Latino. And the art dealer has money, but there aren't enough social media users who vote in CA40 to get her elected. She is the spoiled spoiler and it will be her fault if we have 2 MAGAs to choose from in Nov.
I believe Jeff has written several times about that race, and also included his interviews he's gotten with some of the candidates (it might only be 1 interview at this point because he's featured interviews with others in other races, too)
I think this is wayyyyyy too much gloom and doom. Did you see yesterday's special election for MTG's old seat, which is not only one of the safest Republican seats in Georgia, but in the country? Shawn Harris massively overperformed what anyone thought. Granted, there were like 10 Republicans in that race, but he still got nearly 40% of the vote (the Democrats in CD-40 will get more than that collectively), and now goes to a runoff with the top Republican candidate.
I have been following all of these off-year and special elections, and democrats are massively overperforming everywhere, and flipping many seats in reliably red congressional and state house districts.
Even the red areas of California are not like the red areas of other states. Our large Latino population votes more independently than populations in other states. Much of the Republican advantage in CD-40 is going to rely on the idea that Latinos who swung for Trump in 2024 based on economic issues will stay with Republicans. I think that is unlikely. I am calling that the top two vote getters in this primary are going to be Varet and Kim.
Jeff, how about having coffee with the Democrats running for Governor and getting them to drop out of the race. Rock, paper, scissors is a better method than their current stubborn insistence on staying in. I have my preference, but seriously would be happy if there was just one D on the ballot. As to the 40th--let's see whether Republicans actually come out for the primary; the mood is not good right now and likely to get worse. OTOH, there is a good D candidate running against incumbent Sanchez in the newly configured 41st. Hector de la Torre who might pull some votes from Downey and Brea to compete.
Your assertion that the 3 Democratic candidates will collectively receive only 20-24% of the primary vote doesn’t make any sense. Accordingly, your entire theory about outcome is subject to question. I don’t know if Democrats can win the 40th. There are numerous factors involved including voter intensity and other significant factors. There is a chance that two Republicans will be in the general election but who knows. It is certainly too soon to be this defeatist. I spent almost 50 years running political campaigns, including my 18 years living and working in Orange County and running successful campaigns at every level of government in the County. That doesn’t make me qualified to guess outcomes but it does provide some experience based opinions to be noted.
I had lots of NPP and a few Republicans who said they would vote for Joe after I knocked on their doors. With a little money and support from grassroots orgs, I think there's a chance to flip CA40
Democrats have been significantly overperforming in these off-year and special elections. I don't believe for one minute we will end up with Kim AND Calvert. Shawn Harris just got 40% of the vote in MTG's district in Georgia (it's going to a runoff) in yesterday's special election. That is a significant overperformance of Kamala in 2024. He probably won't win the runoff, but that is a spectacular performance in that district.
CD-40 is not MTG's district. Republicans will rely on the Latino vote that moved over to Trump in 2024 staying with Republicans. That is a BIG assumption that I don't think will hold. I think it will end up being Trump and Varet (although I like Ramirez more).
Wow. Harvey Englander in the house! We are in good company.
You are very kind
Jeff, let's not go all full doom and gloom just yet. We know there is going to be vote splitting on both sides. But I think the current environment is so hostile to the GOP, that their turnout is going to be suppressed or even vote blue as an anti-maga vote. The only real solution is to get behind one candidate now (yes, Esther Kim Varet), and stay super focused.
I cannot get behind someone who told me I was "spewing lies" on her social media ads and never responded when I asked what lies I was spewing. She keeps her designer jeans in a glass case. I call her the spoiled spoiler. She posted something about Joe and Lisa not being patriotic because they won't drop out. She's a social media influencer, not a serious public servant.
Kerr could have won last time with the right backing. And if Dems had turned out. He lost by ~20K votes. With ~47K Dems not voting.
Kerr pulled 5% of the GOP vote without trying.
He was outspent almost 11-1 by YK.
With the blue tsunami coming. Any GOP with less than a 10 point registration advantage is vulnerable. Dems have been overperforming by an average of 15 points nationwide.
Couple that with a newly drawn district with close to 100K union households. With significant union support. Including CTA, IBEW, NUHW, UFCW, and many others.
Heck, YK published a poll that showed Kerr in a three way tie with YK and Calvert.
IMO, this district is very much in play.
Check out bluevoterguide.org Joe has been busy getting endorsements because no one wants to donate to this safe red new district except people on social media around the country. I wonder what the return on investment is for Esther's ad budget? And how many donors are voters in CA40?
You don’t think Joe Kerr should be in this race?
Maybe you don’t know Joe Kerr.
We know Esther didn’t vote for him last election, because she’s a carpetbagger from LA, and we know you didn’t vote for him, since you don’t live in the old or new CA-40, but I’m pretty sure Lisa voted for him last time, and if every registered Dem had, we wouldn’t have Young Kim filling up our seat in Congress right now.
Some data from the OC RoV’s website:
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE
40th District
(VOTE FOR 1)
*YOUNG KIM (REP)
194,398
55.05%
JOE KERR (DEM)
158,714
44.95%
Yes! I didn't realize he only needed 17,843 more votes. I think there were more than 25K registered Democrats who didn't vote. If the other candidates truly wanted to flip this district, they would support Joe with his name recognition and union support. I feel the same way about Katie Porter running for Senate and now Governor. She should have stayed in Congress and not risked losing that seat and taking resources away from other candidates.
Ramirez should drop out..
Support for Mass Deportations: A June 2024 poll found that 53% of Hispanics favored a "new national program to deport all undocumented immigrants,", while a separate July 2025 survey reported that 50% of Hispanic voters supported mass deportations.
Varet should bail as she is too thin skinned and annoying to win.
Joe Kerr is the best candidate by far.
In my personal experience canvassing extensively for the last 2 congressional races - Asif Mahmood and Joe Kerr, voter turnout is what is hurting our chances to flip CA40. Maybe with the increase in union households, we can get the first union firefighter on the ballot in November. The risk of 2 MAGAs on the ballot is incredibly frustrating, but I don't think money is the answer. Joe Kerr managed to beat the school board democrat in the primary and narrow the gap significantly in the general election. He had ZERO support financially or with grassroots organizations last time. Maybe the trend of outperformance by Dems will push him over the edge and we can get rid of 2 MAGAs for the price of one! It would be great if the safe democrat districts would share their resources with CA40. I'm not confident an immigration attorney can win, especially after learning 30% of ICE agents are Latino. And the art dealer has money, but there aren't enough social media users who vote in CA40 to get her elected. She is the spoiled spoiler and it will be her fault if we have 2 MAGAs to choose from in Nov.
Don’t bring in-n-out milkshakes into this
Thanks for being brutally honest. Now how about the gubernatorial race?
I believe Jeff has written several times about that race, and also included his interviews he's gotten with some of the candidates (it might only be 1 interview at this point because he's featured interviews with others in other races, too)
Leave my late cousin out of this!
The LAST thing Californians need is more Democrats. Haven’t they done enough damage already.
I think this is wayyyyyy too much gloom and doom. Did you see yesterday's special election for MTG's old seat, which is not only one of the safest Republican seats in Georgia, but in the country? Shawn Harris massively overperformed what anyone thought. Granted, there were like 10 Republicans in that race, but he still got nearly 40% of the vote (the Democrats in CD-40 will get more than that collectively), and now goes to a runoff with the top Republican candidate.
I have been following all of these off-year and special elections, and democrats are massively overperforming everywhere, and flipping many seats in reliably red congressional and state house districts.
Even the red areas of California are not like the red areas of other states. Our large Latino population votes more independently than populations in other states. Much of the Republican advantage in CD-40 is going to rely on the idea that Latinos who swung for Trump in 2024 based on economic issues will stay with Republicans. I think that is unlikely. I am calling that the top two vote getters in this primary are going to be Varet and Kim.