Jeff, how about having coffee with the Democrats running for Governor and getting them to drop out of the race. Rock, paper, scissors is a better method than their current stubborn insistence on staying in. I have my preference, but seriously would be happy if there was just one D on the ballot. As to the 40th--let's see whether Republicans actually come out for the primary; the mood is not good right now and likely to get worse. OTOH, there is a good D candidate running against incumbent Sanchez in the newly configured 41st. Hector de la Torre who might pull some votes from Downey and Brea to compete.
Your assertion that the 3 Democratic candidates will collectively receive only 20-24% of the primary vote doesn’t make any sense. Accordingly, your entire theory about outcome is subject to question. I don’t know if Democrats can win the 40th. There are numerous factors involved including voter intensity and other significant factors. There is a chance that two Republicans will be in the general election but who knows. It is certainly too soon to be this defeatist. I spent almost 50 years running political campaigns, including my 18 years living and working in Orange County and running successful campaigns at every level of government in the County. That doesn’t make me qualified to guess outcomes but it does provide some experience based opinions to be noted.
Kerr could have won last time with the right backing. And if Dems had turned out. He lost by ~20K votes. With ~47K Dems not voting.
Kerr pulled 5% of the GOP vote without trying.
He was outspent almost 11-1 by YK.
With the blue tsunami coming. Any GOP with less than a 10 point registration advantage is vulnerable. Dems have been overperforming by an average of 15 points nationwide.
Couple that with a newly drawn district with close to 100K union households. With significant union support. Including CTA, IBEW, NUHW, UFCW, and many others.
Heck, YK published a poll that showed Kerr in a three way tie with YK and Calvert.
We know Esther didn’t vote for him last election, because she’s a carpetbagger from LA, and we know you didn’t vote for him, since you don’t live in the old or new CA-40, but I’m pretty sure Lisa voted for him last time, and if every registered Dem had, we wouldn’t have Young Kim filling up our seat in Congress right now.
Jeff, let's not go all full doom and gloom just yet. We know there is going to be vote splitting on both sides. But I think the current environment is so hostile to the GOP, that their turnout is going to be suppressed or even vote blue as an anti-maga vote. The only real solution is to get behind one candidate now (yes, Esther Kim Varet), and stay super focused.
I believe Jeff has written several times about that race, and also included his interviews he's gotten with some of the candidates (it might only be 1 interview at this point because he's featured interviews with others in other races, too)
Jeff, how about having coffee with the Democrats running for Governor and getting them to drop out of the race. Rock, paper, scissors is a better method than their current stubborn insistence on staying in. I have my preference, but seriously would be happy if there was just one D on the ballot. As to the 40th--let's see whether Republicans actually come out for the primary; the mood is not good right now and likely to get worse. OTOH, there is a good D candidate running against incumbent Sanchez in the newly configured 41st. Hector de la Torre who might pull some votes from Downey and Brea to compete.
Your assertion that the 3 Democratic candidates will collectively receive only 20-24% of the primary vote doesn’t make any sense. Accordingly, your entire theory about outcome is subject to question. I don’t know if Democrats can win the 40th. There are numerous factors involved including voter intensity and other significant factors. There is a chance that two Republicans will be in the general election but who knows. It is certainly too soon to be this defeatist. I spent almost 50 years running political campaigns, including my 18 years living and working in Orange County and running successful campaigns at every level of government in the County. That doesn’t make me qualified to guess outcomes but it does provide some experience based opinions to be noted.
Wow. Harvey Englander in the house! We are in good company.
You are very kind
Kerr could have won last time with the right backing. And if Dems had turned out. He lost by ~20K votes. With ~47K Dems not voting.
Kerr pulled 5% of the GOP vote without trying.
He was outspent almost 11-1 by YK.
With the blue tsunami coming. Any GOP with less than a 10 point registration advantage is vulnerable. Dems have been overperforming by an average of 15 points nationwide.
Couple that with a newly drawn district with close to 100K union households. With significant union support. Including CTA, IBEW, NUHW, UFCW, and many others.
Heck, YK published a poll that showed Kerr in a three way tie with YK and Calvert.
IMO, this district is very much in play.
You don’t think Joe Kerr should be in this race?
Maybe you don’t know Joe Kerr.
We know Esther didn’t vote for him last election, because she’s a carpetbagger from LA, and we know you didn’t vote for him, since you don’t live in the old or new CA-40, but I’m pretty sure Lisa voted for him last time, and if every registered Dem had, we wouldn’t have Young Kim filling up our seat in Congress right now.
Some data from the OC RoV’s website:
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE
40th District
(VOTE FOR 1)
*YOUNG KIM (REP)
194,398
55.05%
JOE KERR (DEM)
158,714
44.95%
Jeff, let's not go all full doom and gloom just yet. We know there is going to be vote splitting on both sides. But I think the current environment is so hostile to the GOP, that their turnout is going to be suppressed or even vote blue as an anti-maga vote. The only real solution is to get behind one candidate now (yes, Esther Kim Varet), and stay super focused.
Don’t bring in-n-out milkshakes into this
Thanks for being brutally honest. Now how about the gubernatorial race?
I believe Jeff has written several times about that race, and also included his interviews he's gotten with some of the candidates (it might only be 1 interview at this point because he's featured interviews with others in other races, too)