The 40th is pretty much lost for Democrats

This sucks. But let's not lie to ourselves.

I hate being this guy.

I really do.

I like being optimistic, I like helping Democrats, I like the idea of good people rising and saving America.

I do, I do, I do, I do …

That said, approaching an insanely important slate of votes, we also have to be politically honest about shit. And as we sit here, three months before state primaries, there is a reality to the CA-40 election. One you won’t like. One you’ll, perhaps, criticize me for stating. One that doesn’t bode well. One that multiple local political experts agree upon.

In short—a Democrat will not be on the final ballot.

As we speak, two popular Republicans—the 40th incumbent, Young Kim, and the 41st-moved-to-40th incumbent, Ken Calvert—have more money, more name recognition and more support than Esther Kim Varet, Lisa Ramirez and Joe Kerr, the three Democrats slugging it out. Thanks to the aftermath of Prop 50, they also happen to be competing in a district that now leans Republican by about a nine-point margin (it’s 40 percent GOP, 31 percent Dem and 27 percent independent).

So …

While Esther Kim Varet has (by far) the most money on hand of the three Dems …

… she is waaaaaaay behind Young Kim and waaaaaaay behind Ken Calvert. And maybe you’re thinking, “Well, that’s OK—because Young Kim and Ken Calvert will cancel each other out in the primary, thereby leading to Esther’s rise toward the general!”

Alas, no.

Because politics suck and politicians suck and no one is ever willing to take one for the team, Esther, Lisa and Joe will all have their names listed on the primary ballot (along with the two Republicans and a bunch of lessers). So let’s say Kerr gets (at the minimum) four percent of the vote. And let’s say either Varet or Ramirez snag, oh, eight-to-10 percent. Well, that makes it a near statistical impossibility for the leading Democrat to surpass the inevitable totals of Young Kim and Ken Calvert, who (I repeat) are both quite (politically) famous, savvy veterans of the game and extremely well-funded—in a firm Republican district. Even if, oh, Kerr and Ramirez decide tomorrow to drop out, it’s too late. Their names will be listed, and folks will vote for them. It’s a certainty.

Again, I friggin’ hate being the messenger of death. But had the three Democrats been legitimately serious about winning this for (above all else) the good of democracy, they would have secretly met at the Orange Inn for breakfast burritos and coffee, played rock, paper, scissors and come up with a singular candidate to at least offer a puncher’s chance.

Then they would have held a joint press conference, pretend smiling and holding hands and saying, “WE’RE DOING THIS FOR DEMOCRACY!” as some meh Bieber song blares in the background.

And (cough) even then it would have been a major longshot.

•••

Who do I blame?

No one. And everyone.

I blame Esther for going scorched earth on her fellow Democrats—beginning with young, earnest Perry Meade, then turning her wrath toward Lisa (thereby branding herself an asshole to a huge number of Democrats). I blame her for presenting herself as an entitled art dealer (which, cough, she sorta is) who blessed us with her Christ-like visage. I blame her for funneling through 654,221 campaign managers and spending way too much of her dough on gimmicks. I blame her for weird-ass stuff like this.

I blame Lisa for mid-level fundraising efforts (you cannot win a campaign like this with this level of dough. It’s impossible); for a late entrance into the race; for offering enough mixed messages on her pro-choice bonafides that I keep getting asked, “So … is she against abortion or what?” I also blame her for poor social media output and low visibility. It takes work to be a candidate for fairly high-profile office and have 601 Instagram followers.

I blame Joe for having no realistic shot, but running nonetheless. I blame him for being the evergreen candidate who has enough name recognition to siphon votes from other Democrats, but lacking the mojo and zest to possibly win. Joe is Jerry Quarry fighting Ron Cranmer in 1992. And since that reference will go over the heads of 98 percent of my readers, here’s a study guide.

Hell, here’s Joe Kerr’s financial status (literally, this website has generated more money than Kerr—and I’m not running for shit) …

I blame ego. I blame dough. I blame Prop 50 (which, obviously, I supported). I blame a broken system. I blame the DCCC. I blame In-N-Out’s disgusting milkshakes. I blame Hall and Oates for splitting up. I blame laundry lint.

Mostly, I blame Gary Coleman for his 2003 recall run.

Just because I need to redirect my frustration. And Arnold Jackson was adorable.

•••

And here’s the worst part.

As we speak, Young Kim and Ken Calvert are two lions, desperately trying to rip one another’s eyes out. They are spending tons of dough to gain the conservative edge; to go full MAGA; to establish themselves as the kings of right-wing Southern California. They are thrashing each other, battering each other, killing each other. They are affixing themselves to an increasingly unpopular president who is drowning in the polls and who (if we’re being honest) likely had sexual relations with girls.

That means, had the Democrats thought this through and planned appropriately, there could have been an opening. In particular, I believe (in an ideal world) Ramirez had the best shot. She’s an anti-ICE immigration attorney in a district that’s about 25 percent Latino. She has a story to tell; a saga to share; a got-her-hands-dirty-in-the-fight rep that could have possibly played well. I believe she’s a genuinely good person and a brawler.

But.

She.

Barely.

Has.

Any.

Money.

And as much as it sucks, you’re not capturing this seat on $300,000. Not when your opponents can outspend you 10-to-1. It’s beyond unlikely. It’s impossible.

So, yeah. Maybe, at one point, it paid to dream the dream and hope the hope and think, deep down, a Democrat could win the 40th.

But sitting here—glum but realistic—I don’t believe it’s attainable.

I just don’t.