This isn't it, Jeff. You know that the poll adds up to 66%, right?
She's leaving out support for other candidates and the 25% of UNDECIDEDS.
A couple of points on Tulchin and other political polling. It relies on phone and internet surveys. I am researcher and take the samw approach with customer work. Phone and internet polls favor the more affluent these days because most of the sample ends up being internet. Most people do not universally answer their phones anymore. This is why polling was so off in 2024. It's hard to fix.
Even when doing research for businesses, it can be difficult. I did a project for Wal-Mart once, and it is harder to get a representative sample of less affluent, less connected people. You end up having to weight samples to approximate the population, etc. You end up losing accuracy. There are too many undecideds in this race to call it.
I am willing to believe Esther is ahead, but that doesn't mean she is somehow unbeatable. The leading candidate for governor today was polling 3% for weeks ago. Esther's current numbers aren't destiny.
Also, I am just not going to vote for someone who insults me, my friends, and other community members personally. This is a person who I would have to go to for constituent services, who has already called people in our community names, said they are Hamas supporters, etc. Her husband attacks people too.
We don't HAVE to vote for this person. If we all don't vote for her and vote for Lisa instead, we won't have to endure her taunting, mocking and total lack of policy knowledge.
There’s no way I’m voting for someone who has disrespected so many people. Maybe Jeff would feel the same if her campaign manager pushed him or his wife
After going back and forth on who to vote for in this race (because of the reasons you state), I have decided to vote for who I want to, and it is not Ester Kim Veret.
Wow!! Not a morning read I wanted! I usually enjoy your commentary, but this leaves me hollow, sad & furious! And your description of Varet only reinforces my feelings & thoughts about her! She is so trump-like in her approach to running for office that she’d only be an extension of that energy of ego & incompetence if she were to be Dem candidate! Not my choice!
I’ve seen & heard Esther speak at events several times ~ WHOA!!
She lacked substance, critical thinking , lack of REALISTIC solutions, & seemed to have no idea how government was run & how she was going to help the 40th!!
Obviously, she’s flashy (her face wrapped around a mobile van) & has lots of money but honestly Jeff ~ if she’s the best you want us to support…
To paraphrase a friend, commenting on a different race, “a ham sandwich is better than <the MAGA candidate>.” Any Dem will be better than Kim or Calvert. The ham sandwich is on the ballot, and she has a chance.
Is it immoral to make the best of a horrible situation?
Absolutely not. I have knocked on hundreds of doors over several election cycles and people who don’t vote in midterms or primaries don’t follow politics. If they’re not on social media, they’re not donating to Esther. I’ve had Republicans who have never voted for a Democrat say they’ll vote for a firefighter. I don’t trust polls. I don’t think the candidate with the most money wins. We just need voter turnout to flip this seat. If the nationwide trend continues and if we didn’t have spoilers running we would definitely have a chance.
Look I have no issue voting for a gubernatorial candidate that I don’t like (Porter) to keep both toxic GOP candidates out of the governor’s chair but I just can’t support a Congressional candidate that has such unbridled animosity towards constituents that she will have to represent. It’s not normal. No doubt Young Kim has set the bar astonishingly low by ignoring her constituents and failing to hold town halls. Do we need another Congresswoman to do the same just because she is of the same party as us? I have had multiple interactions with EKV online and they unfailingly spiral downwards. EKV is so righteous that she DOESN’T WANT TO HEAR FROM THE VOTERS. She won’t want to hear from her constituents if she is elected. Lisa Ramirez is the right choice!
Yeah it’s not normal at all. I don’t like Young Kim one bit, but she hasn’t blocked me even though I’ve yelled at her many times online. that should be the bare minimum for a politician.
This is not sports ball, of which I know little. With sports it's all about who has the best team, coaches, etc.? Do I have that right? Oh yes, and money to buy the best players. And there are famously losing teams with die-hard fans. Fans are, after all, just spectators.
But when it comes to elections it is about "We, the people" who evaluate the candidates and cast their vote for the best candidate. We participate in this sport. So you are pre-emptively suggesting that most voters are stupid and won't do any due diligence in who to vote for. That they will be swayed by the number of print pieces that arrive in their mailbox?
Well come June 3 (or whenever the hell this race will be called) I may get another hard dose of reality but for now, I want to hope that people are waking up to what is happening around the country. I want to hope that more folks are paying attention like never before now that we have a fascist regime. It matters who we send to Congress.
Anyone who pays attention, who even reads the candidate statements, will conclude that Lisa is by far, the most qualified person to vote for in this race. People who have heard both candidates speak conclude without a doubt that Lisa has the knowledge, experience, intelligence & temperament to represent us. It's too bad Esther didn't contribute the one thing she has going for her, her money, and support the best candidate by a mile, Lisa. Why does she think she did so poorly in the pre-endorsement conference & the Dem convention? This run appears to be a vanity project for her. Because she is not reading the room - we see you, we hear you and we are just not into you, Esther.
I’m sure there’s no corruption with all that Sears fortune money. Why have you never mentioned Joseph Varets Israel pac first? I thought you were a journalist.
It’s weird how you never once included Joseph Varets family’s connection to the Epstein files and him owning an Israel first pac. Your opinion is trash
That’s a page out of the Epstein files - it’s Nina Rosenwald emailing Jeffrey Epstein about potential donations for her Gatestone institute - which describes itself as a non-partisan council dedicated to promoting democracy, free speech, individual liberty, and energy independence.
Nina Rosenwald is Joseph Varets aunt she was once on the board of directors at AIPAC.
Google says -
The Gatestone Institute is an American right-wing think tank and policy council founded in 2008 by Nina Rosenwald. Headquartered in New York City, the organization focuses on international policy, national security, and human rights, and frequently publishes articles criticizing Muslim immigration, Islamist extremism, and mainstream media narratives
-
John Bolton: Served as the Gatestone Institute's chairman from 2013 to 2018 before becoming National Security Advisor. Critics highlight that under his leadership, the group heavily mainstreamed anti-Muslim narratives and fringe right-wing conspiracy theories.
This isn't it, Jeff. You know that the poll adds up to 66%, right?
She's leaving out support for other candidates and the 25% of UNDECIDEDS.
A couple of points on Tulchin and other political polling. It relies on phone and internet surveys. I am researcher and take the samw approach with customer work. Phone and internet polls favor the more affluent these days because most of the sample ends up being internet. Most people do not universally answer their phones anymore. This is why polling was so off in 2024. It's hard to fix.
Even when doing research for businesses, it can be difficult. I did a project for Wal-Mart once, and it is harder to get a representative sample of less affluent, less connected people. You end up having to weight samples to approximate the population, etc. You end up losing accuracy. There are too many undecideds in this race to call it.
I am willing to believe Esther is ahead, but that doesn't mean she is somehow unbeatable. The leading candidate for governor today was polling 3% for weeks ago. Esther's current numbers aren't destiny.
Also, I am just not going to vote for someone who insults me, my friends, and other community members personally. This is a person who I would have to go to for constituent services, who has already called people in our community names, said they are Hamas supporters, etc. Her husband attacks people too.
We don't HAVE to vote for this person. If we all don't vote for her and vote for Lisa instead, we won't have to endure her taunting, mocking and total lack of policy knowledge.
There’s no way I’m voting for someone who has disrespected so many people. Maybe Jeff would feel the same if her campaign manager pushed him or his wife
After going back and forth on who to vote for in this race (because of the reasons you state), I have decided to vote for who I want to, and it is not Ester Kim Veret.
Wow!! Not a morning read I wanted! I usually enjoy your commentary, but this leaves me hollow, sad & furious! And your description of Varet only reinforces my feelings & thoughts about her! She is so trump-like in her approach to running for office that she’d only be an extension of that energy of ego & incompetence if she were to be Dem candidate! Not my choice!
I’ve seen & heard Esther speak at events several times ~ WHOA!!
She lacked substance, critical thinking , lack of REALISTIC solutions, & seemed to have no idea how government was run & how she was going to help the 40th!!
Obviously, she’s flashy (her face wrapped around a mobile van) & has lots of money but honestly Jeff ~ if she’s the best you want us to support…
WOW!!
IMHO Jeff’s analysis makes sense.
To paraphrase a friend, commenting on a different race, “a ham sandwich is better than <the MAGA candidate>.” Any Dem will be better than Kim or Calvert. The ham sandwich is on the ballot, and she has a chance.
Is it immoral to make the best of a horrible situation?
Absolutely not. I have knocked on hundreds of doors over several election cycles and people who don’t vote in midterms or primaries don’t follow politics. If they’re not on social media, they’re not donating to Esther. I’ve had Republicans who have never voted for a Democrat say they’ll vote for a firefighter. I don’t trust polls. I don’t think the candidate with the most money wins. We just need voter turnout to flip this seat. If the nationwide trend continues and if we didn’t have spoilers running we would definitely have a chance.
So agree!
Look I have no issue voting for a gubernatorial candidate that I don’t like (Porter) to keep both toxic GOP candidates out of the governor’s chair but I just can’t support a Congressional candidate that has such unbridled animosity towards constituents that she will have to represent. It’s not normal. No doubt Young Kim has set the bar astonishingly low by ignoring her constituents and failing to hold town halls. Do we need another Congresswoman to do the same just because she is of the same party as us? I have had multiple interactions with EKV online and they unfailingly spiral downwards. EKV is so righteous that she DOESN’T WANT TO HEAR FROM THE VOTERS. She won’t want to hear from her constituents if she is elected. Lisa Ramirez is the right choice!
Yeah it’s not normal at all. I don’t like Young Kim one bit, but she hasn’t blocked me even though I’ve yelled at her many times online. that should be the bare minimum for a politician.
Oh, Jeff. I am such a big fan but why?
This is not sports ball, of which I know little. With sports it's all about who has the best team, coaches, etc.? Do I have that right? Oh yes, and money to buy the best players. And there are famously losing teams with die-hard fans. Fans are, after all, just spectators.
But when it comes to elections it is about "We, the people" who evaluate the candidates and cast their vote for the best candidate. We participate in this sport. So you are pre-emptively suggesting that most voters are stupid and won't do any due diligence in who to vote for. That they will be swayed by the number of print pieces that arrive in their mailbox?
Well come June 3 (or whenever the hell this race will be called) I may get another hard dose of reality but for now, I want to hope that people are waking up to what is happening around the country. I want to hope that more folks are paying attention like never before now that we have a fascist regime. It matters who we send to Congress.
Anyone who pays attention, who even reads the candidate statements, will conclude that Lisa is by far, the most qualified person to vote for in this race. People who have heard both candidates speak conclude without a doubt that Lisa has the knowledge, experience, intelligence & temperament to represent us. It's too bad Esther didn't contribute the one thing she has going for her, her money, and support the best candidate by a mile, Lisa. Why does she think she did so poorly in the pre-endorsement conference & the Dem convention? This run appears to be a vanity project for her. Because she is not reading the room - we see you, we hear you and we are just not into you, Esther.
As the kiDz would say, "Nah, fam"
Ugh.
I laughed at the Mets analogy.
I’m sure there’s no corruption with all that Sears fortune money. Why have you never mentioned Joseph Varets Israel pac first? I thought you were a journalist.
What kind of man knows a woman has harassed her constituents block themed and even pushed them and still votes for them? Sounds like a Trump fan.
It’s weird how you never once included Joseph Varets family’s connection to the Epstein files and him owning an Israel first pac. Your opinion is trash
WHAT❓❓
https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%209/EFTA00933102.pdf
That’s a page out of the Epstein files - it’s Nina Rosenwald emailing Jeffrey Epstein about potential donations for her Gatestone institute - which describes itself as a non-partisan council dedicated to promoting democracy, free speech, individual liberty, and energy independence.
Nina Rosenwald is Joseph Varets aunt she was once on the board of directors at AIPAC.
Google says -
The Gatestone Institute is an American right-wing think tank and policy council founded in 2008 by Nina Rosenwald. Headquartered in New York City, the organization focuses on international policy, national security, and human rights, and frequently publishes articles criticizing Muslim immigration, Islamist extremism, and mainstream media narratives
-
John Bolton: Served as the Gatestone Institute's chairman from 2013 to 2018 before becoming National Security Advisor. Critics highlight that under his leadership, the group heavily mainstreamed anti-Muslim narratives and fringe right-wing conspiracy theories.
https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs/C00889279/summary/2024
Here is Esther Kim Varet’s husband, Joseph Varets, pro Israel PAC
Stick to sports
Sorry, Jeff Esther’s not gonna win. Have fun with another four years of young Kim.