I have no doubt Jeff knew he’d get lots of slings and arrows for this post, and wrote it anyway. That is courage and integrity. I’ve disagreed with lots of things he’s written, and at the same time am grateful to him for putting himself out there. I’ve watched Esther and Lisa in candidate forums. Lisa’s answers are informed, compassionate and based on her experience and knowledge. She would make a fabulous representative. Esther’s answers have many of us in the room looking at each other with our eyebrows raised, astonished at her ignorance of the issues. Happily, we don’t have to be embarrassed for her, since she doesn’t seem to grasp how her inanity lands with those of us who have been in the grassroots trenches for years. She’s also slippery with the truth, and those of us who value character in candidates are appalled. So here’s a sad fact that many of us can nod along with: We’ve canvassed, phone banked and donated to multiple campaigns with fabulous candidates who simply didn’t have the budget to reach the vast majority of (ill-informed) voters, and with very few exceptions, we saw them go down to defeat. I agree that Lisa is the best candidate in this race, hands down. I also don’t see a path to victory for her. Aim of this comment isn’t to tell anyone how to vote, it’s just to thank Jeff for his courage. Anyone who is commenting here without using their name should consider also thanking him for showing that courage even if you disagree with his conclusions.
After going back and forth on who to vote for in this race (because of the reasons you state), I have decided to vote for who I want to, and it is not Ester Kim Veret.
Wow!! Not a morning read I wanted! I usually enjoy your commentary, but this leaves me hollow, sad & furious! And your description of Varet only reinforces my feelings & thoughts about her! She is so trump-like in her approach to running for office that she’d only be an extension of that energy of ego & incompetence if she were to be Dem candidate! Not my choice!
Look I have no issue voting for a gubernatorial candidate that I don’t like (Porter) to keep both toxic GOP candidates out of the governor’s chair but I just can’t support a Congressional candidate that has such unbridled animosity towards constituents that she will have to represent. It’s not normal. No doubt Young Kim has set the bar astonishingly low by ignoring her constituents and failing to hold town halls. Do we need another Congresswoman to do the same just because she is of the same party as us? I have had multiple interactions with EKV online and they unfailingly spiral downwards. EKV is so righteous that she DOESN’T WANT TO HEAR FROM THE VOTERS. She won’t want to hear from her constituents if she is elected. Lisa Ramirez is the right choice!
Yeah it’s not normal at all. I don’t like Young Kim one bit, but she hasn’t blocked me even though I’ve yelled at her many times online. that should be the bare minimum for a politician.
This isn't it, Jeff. You know that the poll adds up to 66%, right?
She's leaving out support for other candidates and the 25% of UNDECIDEDS.
A couple of points on Tulchin and other political polling. It relies on phone and internet surveys. I am researcher and take the samw approach with customer work. Phone and internet polls favor the more affluent these days because most of the sample ends up being internet. Most people do not universally answer their phones anymore. This is why polling was so off in 2024. It's hard to fix.
Even when doing research for businesses, it can be difficult. I did a project for Wal-Mart once, and it is harder to get a representative sample of less affluent, less connected people. You end up having to weight samples to approximate the population, etc. You end up losing accuracy. There are too many undecideds in this race to call it.
I am willing to believe Esther is ahead, but that doesn't mean she is somehow unbeatable. The leading candidate for governor today was polling 3% for weeks ago. Esther's current numbers aren't destiny.
Also, I am just not going to vote for someone who insults me, my friends, and other community members personally. This is a person who I would have to go to for constituent services, who has already called people in our community names, said they are Hamas supporters, etc. Her husband attacks people too.
We don't HAVE to vote for this person. If we all don't vote for her and vote for Lisa instead, we won't have to endure her taunting, mocking and total lack of policy knowledge.
There’s no way I’m voting for someone who has disrespected so many people. Maybe Jeff would feel the same if her campaign manager pushed him or his wife
One thing that really looks weird on her poll is the the likability change between January and May. It indicates to me that the samples might have substantially different demographic breakdowns. I am sure Tulchin is a good firm, but it's a super big change in a short amount of time when her behavior has not changed between the two polls.
But yes, you're right, it's usually a number of polls that gives you a confluence of data to show an average picture. Two, two months apart is not enough to get an accurate picture especially with a quarter of the people undecided and the method favoring affluent voters. It's more a marketing tool than anything.
To paraphrase a friend, commenting on a different race, “a ham sandwich is better than <the MAGA candidate>.” Any Dem will be better than Kim or Calvert. The ham sandwich is on the ballot, and she has a chance.
Is it immoral to make the best of a horrible situation?
The problem is Jeff is asking Dems to reward Varet’s smarmy behavior with what amounts to an endorsement. CA-40 is too red for a Dem to win, so we’re getting Kim or Calvert anyway. He should have just said, “This race is lost; vote for whomever you want.”
How much do we care about our federal government being controled by Democrats, vs. feeling virtuous by voting only for the best, albeit guaranteed to lose, candidate?
I agree that we deserve better candidates than EKV. We have had some good ones in the past - Damikolas, Lisa Ramirez (of course), and Joe Kerr in recent CD40 races. The question is how to help them win. Voting for them is too little, too late.
Please explain: your implication is that either Kim or Calvert is better than EKV - who may be no less awful than the other two but is a Democrat. Is that what you mean to say?
In my opinion, the House will turn Blue regardless of who wins in CA-40. I can’t in good conscience support EKV. I would rather her campaign fail and not make it to the General than inspire her (and empty-suit candidates like her) that they should run for Congress. We deserve better candidates.
This is not sports ball, of which I know little. With sports it's all about who has the best team, coaches, etc.? Do I have that right? Oh yes, and money to buy the best players. And there are famously losing teams with die-hard fans. Fans are, after all, just spectators.
But when it comes to elections it is about "We, the people" who evaluate the candidates and cast their vote for the best candidate. We participate in this sport. So you are pre-emptively suggesting that most voters are stupid and won't do any due diligence in who to vote for. That they will be swayed by the number of print pieces that arrive in their mailbox?
Well come June 3 (or whenever the hell this race will be called) I may get another hard dose of reality but for now, I want to hope that people are waking up to what is happening around the country. I want to hope that more folks are paying attention like never before now that we have a fascist regime. It matters who we send to Congress.
Anyone who pays attention, who even reads the candidate statements, will conclude that Lisa is by far, the most qualified person to vote for in this race. People who have heard both candidates speak conclude without a doubt that Lisa has the knowledge, experience, intelligence & temperament to represent us. It's too bad Esther didn't contribute the one thing she has going for her, her money, and support the best candidate by a mile, Lisa. Why does she think she did so poorly in the pre-endorsement conference & the Dem convention? This run appears to be a vanity project for her. Because she is not reading the room - we see you, we hear you and we are just not into you, Esther.
I’ve seen & heard Esther speak at events several times ~ WHOA!!
She lacked substance, critical thinking , lack of REALISTIC solutions, & seemed to have no idea how government was run & how she was going to help the 40th!!
Obviously, she’s flashy (her face wrapped around a mobile van) & has lots of money but honestly Jeff ~ if she’s the best you want us to support…
I don’t think he wants to be at this reality any more than you do. She appears to be a not great person but at this point it’s her or a MAGA. It’s a hard reality.
There are some races we knew we’d lose after prop 50. The CA-40 is one of them. It’s why Perry Meade dropped out.
I’m fully aware that the GOP is doing all they can to cheat this fall, but the people in Minnesota reminded us all that we aren’t having it. Their courage spurred on others to stand up and say no more. The Trump admin saw and changed the top of that agency. Is the replacement embarrassing? Yes. But it was change.
I say that to say this, you’re forgetting one key element here in your endorsement (if you can call it that): the will of the people.
There is not one single person I’ve met in the party who has had a good interaction with EKV and those people are TALKING. I hope to God that whisper campaign shuts out EKV at the ballot box.
And the second thing is - I think we are in for a blue wave of epic proportions this fall and I cannot wait. Have hope, Jeff.
Now if you’ll excuse me, I’m off to donate to Lisa Ramirez.
Absolutely not. I have knocked on hundreds of doors over several election cycles and people who don’t vote in midterms or primaries don’t follow politics. If they’re not on social media, they’re not donating to Esther. I’ve had Republicans who have never voted for a Democrat say they’ll vote for a firefighter. I don’t trust polls. I don’t think the candidate with the most money wins. We just need voter turnout to flip this seat. If the nationwide trend continues and if we didn’t have spoilers running we would definitely have a chance.
Jeff, I appreciate your viewpoint, but I have to live with my vote after the primary. Hopefully, if the DEMs do well enough in the general the 40th CD will be meaningless.
There are 45 comments here from some of the most plugged-in Orange County voters, and most of them reject Jeff's proposition that we should support the leading Dem candidate who also has the most campaign money. And if that, in and of itself, doesn't speak volumes as to how much EKV has rubbed people the wrong way, I don't know what does.
I appreciate the honesty in your piece, and I don’t think anyone would disagree that this is a difficult district for Democrats. But your conclusion rests on a set of assumptions that don’t fully match what’s actually happening on the ground in CA-40.
This isn’t a typical cycle, and it’s not a typical electorate.
The idea that this race is locked based on traditional polling overlooks a few realities. A significant portion of the electorate here, particularly Latino voters, is historically underrepresented in those models. Early data already shows that more than half of Latino ballots have been cast. That alone should give pause to anyone treating conventional polling as definitive.
Not all campaigns are playing the same game. Some are running traditional, high-dollar, consultant-driven operations. Others are building turnout through community-based, relational organizing that doesn’t show up cleanly in polling snapshots. If you’re only measuring one approach, you’re going to miss the other entirely.
That doesn’t mean the path is easy. It does mean it’s not as predetermined as you suggest.
To the supporters of Lisa Ramirez: take this kind of analysis for what it is, one interpretation based on incomplete information. If anything, use it as fuel. Efforts that focus on expanding the electorate are often dismissed right up until they aren’t.
Stay focused. Keep organizing. Keep turning out voters who don’t usually get counted.
We’re not chasing the same metrics, and we’re not trying to win the same way. That may not show up in the numbers until it does.
I have no doubt Jeff knew he’d get lots of slings and arrows for this post, and wrote it anyway. That is courage and integrity. I’ve disagreed with lots of things he’s written, and at the same time am grateful to him for putting himself out there. I’ve watched Esther and Lisa in candidate forums. Lisa’s answers are informed, compassionate and based on her experience and knowledge. She would make a fabulous representative. Esther’s answers have many of us in the room looking at each other with our eyebrows raised, astonished at her ignorance of the issues. Happily, we don’t have to be embarrassed for her, since she doesn’t seem to grasp how her inanity lands with those of us who have been in the grassroots trenches for years. She’s also slippery with the truth, and those of us who value character in candidates are appalled. So here’s a sad fact that many of us can nod along with: We’ve canvassed, phone banked and donated to multiple campaigns with fabulous candidates who simply didn’t have the budget to reach the vast majority of (ill-informed) voters, and with very few exceptions, we saw them go down to defeat. I agree that Lisa is the best candidate in this race, hands down. I also don’t see a path to victory for her. Aim of this comment isn’t to tell anyone how to vote, it’s just to thank Jeff for his courage. Anyone who is commenting here without using their name should consider also thanking him for showing that courage even if you disagree with his conclusions.
After going back and forth on who to vote for in this race (because of the reasons you state), I have decided to vote for who I want to, and it is not Ester Kim Veret.
Well said and good on you!
Excellent strategy. I’m doing the same.
Wow!! Not a morning read I wanted! I usually enjoy your commentary, but this leaves me hollow, sad & furious! And your description of Varet only reinforces my feelings & thoughts about her! She is so trump-like in her approach to running for office that she’d only be an extension of that energy of ego & incompetence if she were to be Dem candidate! Not my choice!
Look I have no issue voting for a gubernatorial candidate that I don’t like (Porter) to keep both toxic GOP candidates out of the governor’s chair but I just can’t support a Congressional candidate that has such unbridled animosity towards constituents that she will have to represent. It’s not normal. No doubt Young Kim has set the bar astonishingly low by ignoring her constituents and failing to hold town halls. Do we need another Congresswoman to do the same just because she is of the same party as us? I have had multiple interactions with EKV online and they unfailingly spiral downwards. EKV is so righteous that she DOESN’T WANT TO HEAR FROM THE VOTERS. She won’t want to hear from her constituents if she is elected. Lisa Ramirez is the right choice!
Waste your vote,bad citizen. Death of democracy due to puritanical zealots.
Yeah it’s not normal at all. I don’t like Young Kim one bit, but she hasn’t blocked me even though I’ve yelled at her many times online. that should be the bare minimum for a politician.
This isn't it, Jeff. You know that the poll adds up to 66%, right?
She's leaving out support for other candidates and the 25% of UNDECIDEDS.
A couple of points on Tulchin and other political polling. It relies on phone and internet surveys. I am researcher and take the samw approach with customer work. Phone and internet polls favor the more affluent these days because most of the sample ends up being internet. Most people do not universally answer their phones anymore. This is why polling was so off in 2024. It's hard to fix.
Even when doing research for businesses, it can be difficult. I did a project for Wal-Mart once, and it is harder to get a representative sample of less affluent, less connected people. You end up having to weight samples to approximate the population, etc. You end up losing accuracy. There are too many undecideds in this race to call it.
I am willing to believe Esther is ahead, but that doesn't mean she is somehow unbeatable. The leading candidate for governor today was polling 3% for weeks ago. Esther's current numbers aren't destiny.
Also, I am just not going to vote for someone who insults me, my friends, and other community members personally. This is a person who I would have to go to for constituent services, who has already called people in our community names, said they are Hamas supporters, etc. Her husband attacks people too.
We don't HAVE to vote for this person. If we all don't vote for her and vote for Lisa instead, we won't have to endure her taunting, mocking and total lack of policy knowledge.
There’s no way I’m voting for someone who has disrespected so many people. Maybe Jeff would feel the same if her campaign manager pushed him or his wife
Or accused him of”spewing lies” but wouldn’t explain what was not true.
And one poll with 500 people isn’t proof that she’s ahead. If there were dozens of polls that all had the same results I would still be skeptical.
One thing that really looks weird on her poll is the the likability change between January and May. It indicates to me that the samples might have substantially different demographic breakdowns. I am sure Tulchin is a good firm, but it's a super big change in a short amount of time when her behavior has not changed between the two polls.
But yes, you're right, it's usually a number of polls that gives you a confluence of data to show an average picture. Two, two months apart is not enough to get an accurate picture especially with a quarter of the people undecided and the method favoring affluent voters. It's more a marketing tool than anything.
IMHO Jeff’s analysis makes sense.
To paraphrase a friend, commenting on a different race, “a ham sandwich is better than <the MAGA candidate>.” Any Dem will be better than Kim or Calvert. The ham sandwich is on the ballot, and she has a chance.
Is it immoral to make the best of a horrible situation?
The problem is Jeff is asking Dems to reward Varet’s smarmy behavior with what amounts to an endorsement. CA-40 is too red for a Dem to win, so we’re getting Kim or Calvert anyway. He should have just said, “This race is lost; vote for whomever you want.”
How much do we care about our federal government being controled by Democrats, vs. feeling virtuous by voting only for the best, albeit guaranteed to lose, candidate?
I hope you are right about flipping Congress.
I agree that we deserve better candidates than EKV. We have had some good ones in the past - Damikolas, Lisa Ramirez (of course), and Joe Kerr in recent CD40 races. The question is how to help them win. Voting for them is too little, too late.
There’s such a thing as a bridge too far, and Esther Kim Varet is it.
Please explain: your implication is that either Kim or Calvert is better than EKV - who may be no less awful than the other two but is a Democrat. Is that what you mean to say?
In my opinion, the House will turn Blue regardless of who wins in CA-40. I can’t in good conscience support EKV. I would rather her campaign fail and not make it to the General than inspire her (and empty-suit candidates like her) that they should run for Congress. We deserve better candidates.
Oh, Jeff. I am such a big fan but why?
This is not sports ball, of which I know little. With sports it's all about who has the best team, coaches, etc.? Do I have that right? Oh yes, and money to buy the best players. And there are famously losing teams with die-hard fans. Fans are, after all, just spectators.
But when it comes to elections it is about "We, the people" who evaluate the candidates and cast their vote for the best candidate. We participate in this sport. So you are pre-emptively suggesting that most voters are stupid and won't do any due diligence in who to vote for. That they will be swayed by the number of print pieces that arrive in their mailbox?
Well come June 3 (or whenever the hell this race will be called) I may get another hard dose of reality but for now, I want to hope that people are waking up to what is happening around the country. I want to hope that more folks are paying attention like never before now that we have a fascist regime. It matters who we send to Congress.
Anyone who pays attention, who even reads the candidate statements, will conclude that Lisa is by far, the most qualified person to vote for in this race. People who have heard both candidates speak conclude without a doubt that Lisa has the knowledge, experience, intelligence & temperament to represent us. It's too bad Esther didn't contribute the one thing she has going for her, her money, and support the best candidate by a mile, Lisa. Why does she think she did so poorly in the pre-endorsement conference & the Dem convention? This run appears to be a vanity project for her. Because she is not reading the room - we see you, we hear you and we are just not into you, Esther.
Well said!
I’ve seen & heard Esther speak at events several times ~ WHOA!!
She lacked substance, critical thinking , lack of REALISTIC solutions, & seemed to have no idea how government was run & how she was going to help the 40th!!
Obviously, she’s flashy (her face wrapped around a mobile van) & has lots of money but honestly Jeff ~ if she’s the best you want us to support…
WOW!!
I don’t think he wants to be at this reality any more than you do. She appears to be a not great person but at this point it’s her or a MAGA. It’s a hard reality.
There are some races we knew we’d lose after prop 50. The CA-40 is one of them. It’s why Perry Meade dropped out.
I’m fully aware that the GOP is doing all they can to cheat this fall, but the people in Minnesota reminded us all that we aren’t having it. Their courage spurred on others to stand up and say no more. The Trump admin saw and changed the top of that agency. Is the replacement embarrassing? Yes. But it was change.
I say that to say this, you’re forgetting one key element here in your endorsement (if you can call it that): the will of the people.
There is not one single person I’ve met in the party who has had a good interaction with EKV and those people are TALKING. I hope to God that whisper campaign shuts out EKV at the ballot box.
And the second thing is - I think we are in for a blue wave of epic proportions this fall and I cannot wait. Have hope, Jeff.
Now if you’ll excuse me, I’m off to donate to Lisa Ramirez.
Absolutely not. I have knocked on hundreds of doors over several election cycles and people who don’t vote in midterms or primaries don’t follow politics. If they’re not on social media, they’re not donating to Esther. I’ve had Republicans who have never voted for a Democrat say they’ll vote for a firefighter. I don’t trust polls. I don’t think the candidate with the most money wins. We just need voter turnout to flip this seat. If the nationwide trend continues and if we didn’t have spoilers running we would definitely have a chance.
So agree!
Jeff, I appreciate your viewpoint, but I have to live with my vote after the primary. Hopefully, if the DEMs do well enough in the general the 40th CD will be meaningless.
I'm still with Lisa.
There are 45 comments here from some of the most plugged-in Orange County voters, and most of them reject Jeff's proposition that we should support the leading Dem candidate who also has the most campaign money. And if that, in and of itself, doesn't speak volumes as to how much EKV has rubbed people the wrong way, I don't know what does.
I appreciate the honesty in your piece, and I don’t think anyone would disagree that this is a difficult district for Democrats. But your conclusion rests on a set of assumptions that don’t fully match what’s actually happening on the ground in CA-40.
This isn’t a typical cycle, and it’s not a typical electorate.
The idea that this race is locked based on traditional polling overlooks a few realities. A significant portion of the electorate here, particularly Latino voters, is historically underrepresented in those models. Early data already shows that more than half of Latino ballots have been cast. That alone should give pause to anyone treating conventional polling as definitive.
Not all campaigns are playing the same game. Some are running traditional, high-dollar, consultant-driven operations. Others are building turnout through community-based, relational organizing that doesn’t show up cleanly in polling snapshots. If you’re only measuring one approach, you’re going to miss the other entirely.
That doesn’t mean the path is easy. It does mean it’s not as predetermined as you suggest.
To the supporters of Lisa Ramirez: take this kind of analysis for what it is, one interpretation based on incomplete information. If anything, use it as fuel. Efforts that focus on expanding the electorate are often dismissed right up until they aren’t.
Stay focused. Keep organizing. Keep turning out voters who don’t usually get counted.
We’re not chasing the same metrics, and we’re not trying to win the same way. That may not show up in the numbers until it does.
As the kiDz would say, "Nah, fam"
Ugh.
I laughed at the Mets analogy.