I'm rooting for the asteroid.
But (grrr) I'm ultimately supporting Esther Kim-Varet in CA-40.
So, a confession.
I had a plan for today’s post, and it was this: I was going to use this space to encourage CA-40 voters to suck it up and vote for Esther Kim-Varet, the only Democrat with even a slight chance of eking out a victory in a plus-nine Republican district. I was going to say that, “Yeah, she’s not my cup o’ tea, and she may well not be your cup o’ tea. She’s brash and combative and prone to weird gaffes and overly sharpened elbows. She has (in my opinion) repeatedly crossed the line in going after fellow Democrats. But after the Supreme Court decision, and what’s going down in Tennessee and Alabama and Louisiana, and with desperate times eating our souls … she’s the only chance we have in a long-shot race—and, even though her campaign commissioned the recent Ben Tulchin poll that showed this …
… Tulchin is actually a very reputable operator, and he wouldn’t cook books or create fiction in the name of a paycheck. Democrats near and far take his work seriously, and I 100-percent believe the numbers. Literally, with less than a month to go, polling shows it’s Esther, it’s Calvert and it’s Young Kim. All the other candidates are just taking up space.
Along those lines, while I very much admire Lisa Ramirez and appreciated her guest post and would likely support her in 2028, I watched this video last night and—audibly—sighed.
Why “sighed”? Because Lisa isn’t winning this election. She’s just not, and I’m honestly sort of exhausted hearing candidates continue to ask for money when (truth be told), they’re the New York Mets, 11 1/2 games out of first. I know conceding sucks. I know admitting this isn’t your year sucks. I know that, when you have supporters, volunteers, (some) coin in the bank, dropping out sucks. But when Lisa says, “Our numbers—even if they decrease by 50 percent—show us landing in the top two,” … I mean, it’s insanity. It makes no sense. I don’t buy it. There’s nothing pointing to that outcome, and the next local independent political veteran who tells you (at this juncture) Lisa has a real shot will be the first. I know this sounds mean, but there’s a difference between mean and honest. I’m being honest to readers. It is what it is.
And, again, I both like and admire Lisa. I did not enjoy writing that last paragraph.
As for … Esther. Look, I don’t know if Esther can win, but she’s 100-percent the most likely Democrat to survive the primary. More to the point, though, I’m just so fucking exhausted. No joke: My plan was to use this space and actually support her candidacy. To suck it up and encourage my readers to back her in the name of battling Trump and saving democracy. I swear on my kids, that was the plan. That is the plan.
But, for reasons I will never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever understand, a few days ago Esther’s husband filled up the comments section of Lisa’s guest post. Comment. Another comment. Another comment. Then Esther jumped in because—We need to defend ourselves! We have to defend ourselves! Always! Just … because!
And, because I know Esther and Joe read this site, I will say this directly: Why? Why do you keep doing this? You have the money. You have the momentum. You have friendly faces and an apparatus and an ice cream truck. Why do you keep making your campaign unlikeable? Why can’t you not always fire back? Why can’t you take the high road? Why can’t you understand that, as part of running for office, you will receive criticism? And a big part of receiving criticism (online or otherwise) is absorbing it. As I told Joe in a (friendly) DM chat the other day, as a journalist I’ve received hundreds … thousands of hate letters, calls, threats, etc. How do I deal with 98 percent of them? DELETE button.
At this point, you guys should be praising Lisa Ramirez and Joe Kerr. You should be saying, “Lisa has run a vigorous campaign, and we admire her work as an immigration attorney, and—once in congress—I would love to work with her on battling ICE.” You should be saying, “Joe Kerr’s bravery as a fire captain is awe-inspiring, and—once in congress—I would love to work with him on fire prevention.” Even if it’s not true. This shit isn’t complicated. At all. The key to being an inevitable candidate is to behave as if you’re an inevitable candidate. Instead, you write stuff like this (“I’m polling at 20% and rapidly advancing bc I’m the only one messaging to the district with mail, ads, signs and phone calls. The other Dems that are “Jill Stein-ing” the race? All below 6% and STILL trending downwards because they didn’t do the work and raise a real grassroots campaign. If you know the other Dems in this CA40 race — please ask them to be patriotic and drop out now!!!) and think it plays well. It doesn’t. So cut the crap.
Also, since I’m venting: Stop blaming people. This site. Your opponents. That person. This person. Those people. We didn’t cause you to go through multiple campaign managers. We didn’t put the term, “apex predator” in your vocabulary. You did those things. You got nasty. You took shots at people. You made it so none of your former CA-40 rivals have stepped forward to endorse you. Look in the mirror. Because, truly, with even, oh, 3 percent more support (peeling off of Joe and Lisa, for example), you’re a legit Top 2.
•••
All this said …
Deep breath.
… I think CA-40 voters would be dumb to not vote Esther Kim-Varet.
Seriously. Vote for her.
We are living in awful times. Awful, awful, awful times. Young Kim has gone all in on MAGA. So has Ken Calvert. And while I do not dig Esther’s campaign stylings, and I’ve increasingly turned off by Esther’s mojo, I don’t have to like the campaign or the mojo to realize she is (without debate) the lone Democrat with any chance.
I want to emphasize the point: She. Is. The. Lone. Democrat. With. Any. Chance.
It’s true. As much as Lisa (rightly) bemoans money in politics, you need money to win. She doesn’t have it. Joe Kerr doesn’t have it. Esther does.
And if, by some miracle, Esther Kim Varet triumphs, it spells the end of Young Kim, the end of Ken Calvert and proof that maybe, just maybe, the CA-40 isn’t as conservative as some thought.
So … in the 40th, vote Esther Kim-Varet.
The asteroid ain’t on the ballot.
This isn't it, Jeff. You know that the poll adds up to 66%, right?
She's leaving out support for other candidates and the 25% of UNDECIDEDS.
A couple of points on Tulchin and other political polling. It relies on phone and internet surveys. I am researcher and take the samw approach with customer work. Phone and internet polls favor the more affluent these days because most of the sample ends up being internet. Most people do not universally answer their phones anymore. This is why polling was so off in 2024. It's hard to fix.
Even when doing research for businesses, it can be difficult. I did a project for Wal-Mart once, and it is harder to get a representative sample of less affluent, less connected people. You end up having to weight samples to approximate the population, etc. You end up losing accuracy. There are too many undecideds in this race to call it.
I am willing to believe Esther is ahead, but that doesn't mean she is somehow unbeatable. The leading candidate for governor today was polling 3% for weeks ago. Esther's current numbers aren't destiny.
Also, I am just not going to vote for someone who insults me, my friends, and other community members personally. This is a person who I would have to go to for constituent services, who has already called people in our community names, said they are Hamas supporters, etc. Her husband attacks people too.
We don't HAVE to vote for this person. If we all don't vote for her and vote for Lisa instead, we won't have to endure her taunting, mocking and total lack of policy knowledge.
After going back and forth on who to vote for in this race (because of the reasons you state), I have decided to vote for who I want to, and it is not Ester Kim Veret.