She is Young Kim's dream candidate. No name ID. First time candidate. Young Kim has beaten three in a row with that moniker.
So here’s my take. Republicans WANT her to be the nominee! So of course they’re elevating her. It’s strategic. They definitely don’t want YK to face off against Joe again. Much better for them if it’s Esther. Bottom line, if you’re the weakest link, you get the most airtime from your enemies. That’s not fear, it’s bait. And Esther (and Pearlman) took it, hook, line, and sinker.
The political terms is ratf***ing. One supports a weak candidate in the primary they know they can demolish in the general.
The GOP is actually terrified of Kerr. He pulled GOP households in the last election. With no resources. With support and the blue tsunami that is coming. The GOP knows Young Kim is a goner with a firefighter on the ballot. Especially given that CA40 is home to one of the most active fire corridors in the country.
Great analysis. Esther has the "IT" factor, I'm bullish on her candidacy. But you've identified some limited shortcomings that carry risk.
Her unfiltered approach to social media is a double-edged sword. Her presence and output is great, and the style definitely connects with the "Resist Lib" / "Wine Mom" demographic that you want active in a campaign. Points for authenticity!
But that authenticity carries risks. Her and her Jewish American husband obviously carry a Zionist perspective that sympathizes one-sidedly toward Israel, and they have both been critical of pro-Palestine advocacy. I'm concerned that her comments about the war and the conflict will be read as tone-deaf and potentially alienate folks- and not just Gen-Z.
The Democratic Party base is overwhelmingly critical of Netanyahu's prosecution of Israel's war on Hamas, and sympathetic toward the Palestinian people. There is a pathway for her to stand up for human rights and peace on both sides, and to distinguish her support for the Jewish community from uncritical support for Israeli actions, but she needs to learn to speak that language (and understand the narratives of the pro-Palestine side, without feeling that she needs to adopt them herself.)
I think the CA-40 primary will come down to Gagnier and Varet. I think Gangier has broader appeal by virtue of coming off as slightly more centrist, even if they both hold similar policy positions. She also spoke more about economic issues when I saw her, which will be a factor in 2026.
Varet's social media is pretty great, but she has to walk the fine line between edgy, and condescending. She needs to be more Jasmine Crockett and less elitist art dealer. I spoke to her briefly and I advised her that insulting Christians was probably not a winning strategy in CA-40 (she talked about YK being an evangelical with disdain). I am just a random lady who lives here, so what do I know? But it's not a great look, especially in South County. The Gaza war could also be an issue for her with some segments of liberal voters.
Both are young, which I think is a plus. Kim is by no means very old, but she is in her 60's now and people are tiring of older candidates.
Kim, at this point, with her support of federal troops in Southern California and voting for the Big, Ugly Bill has fully hitched her wagon to MAGA. So I hope that helps hoist her by her own petard no matter who the candidate is in CA-40.
Also, the demographics in our purple district require votes from Republicans and No Party Preference. The old, white, ex-Firefighters Union President might appeal to more of those voters than a social media savvy candidate. That will help her get more campaign money from across the country, but youth voter turnout is really low, especially in the midterm elections.
I think she’s getting attacks from the GOP because she has the most money. They’re not attacking Joe Kerr because he has no money and he is appealing to non-MAGA Republicans and no party preference voters. I knocked on hundreds of doors for the last 2 elections and he had the most favorable response with undecided voters I spoke with. He had no money and no support from grassroots groups because they chose to focus on winnable districts. Joe has decades of experience in Sacramento and DC, making lives better for firefighters and protecting OC from wildfires. That’s more important to me than being a successful art dealer and being very wealthy. I think he will stand up to the bullies in Congress. I’m waiting for Esther to explain why she accused me of “spewing lies” and to answer whether or not she will contribute her campaign money to the winner of the primary if she loses. She hasn’t even stood up to me, a potential constituent. That’s not a good sign!
She has "IT." The whole package. Great ad. Personable, straight the heart of Kim critique. I think she can carry the 40th as a 1.5 Korean married to WM with two adorable kids. Yes, voters like that all American look.
Shameful to cite Tupac , a true radical, to soft sell support for this corrupt woman who married into a sociopathic Zionist family and whose husband helped fund the direct inspiration for Anders Behring Breivik’s racist spree killing. Her husband also has called for No Ceasfire and she thinks he is A ok. She is a gentrifier and a bad faith elite running as a “mom” while blocking constituents and ignoring genocide
I’ve been to a meet-and-greet for Varet and also attended the opening of her art gallery in Tustin and found her intelligent and capable financially of waging a solid campaign against Kim. Yes, she’s new to the political arena in OC, which could work against her, but she seems extremely committed to beating Kim. And we all hope somebody rises up and does just that.
I've met Linh but haven't seen her speak yet. Seeing Gagnier, Varet, and Swift at the same event, Varet rubbed the audience the wrong way based on water-cooler chatter. I like Swift. She’s the most personable and down-to-earth candidate I’ve met, but you may be right about the spark. Gagnier appears to be the most qualified and closest to the issues. Kerr doesn't believe there is a primary, and is acting like the presumptive nominee even though he has already proved he's not up to the challenge. Maybe the GOP is only going after Varet because she's on the attack (great ad btw), whereas Gagnier is less provocative in her social media, but still addresses the issues. Something which may end up being more attractive to swing voters?
I wish she would spend her money on a candidate who is more qualified. I hope some one can defeat Young Kim but being represented by a mega-rich art dealer who doesn't live in CA40 wouldn't be my first choice. I heard Christina Gagnier speak last Monday and thought she was very impressive. More candidates are coming...
She is Young Kim's dream candidate. No name ID. First time candidate. Young Kim has beaten three in a row with that moniker.
So here’s my take. Republicans WANT her to be the nominee! So of course they’re elevating her. It’s strategic. They definitely don’t want YK to face off against Joe again. Much better for them if it’s Esther. Bottom line, if you’re the weakest link, you get the most airtime from your enemies. That’s not fear, it’s bait. And Esther (and Pearlman) took it, hook, line, and sinker.
The political terms is ratf***ing. One supports a weak candidate in the primary they know they can demolish in the general.
The GOP is actually terrified of Kerr. He pulled GOP households in the last election. With no resources. With support and the blue tsunami that is coming. The GOP knows Young Kim is a goner with a firefighter on the ballot. Especially given that CA40 is home to one of the most active fire corridors in the country.
Great analysis. Esther has the "IT" factor, I'm bullish on her candidacy. But you've identified some limited shortcomings that carry risk.
Her unfiltered approach to social media is a double-edged sword. Her presence and output is great, and the style definitely connects with the "Resist Lib" / "Wine Mom" demographic that you want active in a campaign. Points for authenticity!
But that authenticity carries risks. Her and her Jewish American husband obviously carry a Zionist perspective that sympathizes one-sidedly toward Israel, and they have both been critical of pro-Palestine advocacy. I'm concerned that her comments about the war and the conflict will be read as tone-deaf and potentially alienate folks- and not just Gen-Z.
The Democratic Party base is overwhelmingly critical of Netanyahu's prosecution of Israel's war on Hamas, and sympathetic toward the Palestinian people. There is a pathway for her to stand up for human rights and peace on both sides, and to distinguish her support for the Jewish community from uncritical support for Israeli actions, but she needs to learn to speak that language (and understand the narratives of the pro-Palestine side, without feeling that she needs to adopt them herself.)
I think the CA-40 primary will come down to Gagnier and Varet. I think Gangier has broader appeal by virtue of coming off as slightly more centrist, even if they both hold similar policy positions. She also spoke more about economic issues when I saw her, which will be a factor in 2026.
Varet's social media is pretty great, but she has to walk the fine line between edgy, and condescending. She needs to be more Jasmine Crockett and less elitist art dealer. I spoke to her briefly and I advised her that insulting Christians was probably not a winning strategy in CA-40 (she talked about YK being an evangelical with disdain). I am just a random lady who lives here, so what do I know? But it's not a great look, especially in South County. The Gaza war could also be an issue for her with some segments of liberal voters.
Both are young, which I think is a plus. Kim is by no means very old, but she is in her 60's now and people are tiring of older candidates.
Kim, at this point, with her support of federal troops in Southern California and voting for the Big, Ugly Bill has fully hitched her wagon to MAGA. So I hope that helps hoist her by her own petard no matter who the candidate is in CA-40.
Also, the demographics in our purple district require votes from Republicans and No Party Preference. The old, white, ex-Firefighters Union President might appeal to more of those voters than a social media savvy candidate. That will help her get more campaign money from across the country, but youth voter turnout is really low, especially in the midterm elections.
I think she’s getting attacks from the GOP because she has the most money. They’re not attacking Joe Kerr because he has no money and he is appealing to non-MAGA Republicans and no party preference voters. I knocked on hundreds of doors for the last 2 elections and he had the most favorable response with undecided voters I spoke with. He had no money and no support from grassroots groups because they chose to focus on winnable districts. Joe has decades of experience in Sacramento and DC, making lives better for firefighters and protecting OC from wildfires. That’s more important to me than being a successful art dealer and being very wealthy. I think he will stand up to the bullies in Congress. I’m waiting for Esther to explain why she accused me of “spewing lies” and to answer whether or not she will contribute her campaign money to the winner of the primary if she loses. She hasn’t even stood up to me, a potential constituent. That’s not a good sign!
She has "IT." The whole package. Great ad. Personable, straight the heart of Kim critique. I think she can carry the 40th as a 1.5 Korean married to WM with two adorable kids. Yes, voters like that all American look.
Shameful to cite Tupac , a true radical, to soft sell support for this corrupt woman who married into a sociopathic Zionist family and whose husband helped fund the direct inspiration for Anders Behring Breivik’s racist spree killing. Her husband also has called for No Ceasfire and she thinks he is A ok. She is a gentrifier and a bad faith elite running as a “mom” while blocking constituents and ignoring genocide
I’ve been to a meet-and-greet for Varet and also attended the opening of her art gallery in Tustin and found her intelligent and capable financially of waging a solid campaign against Kim. Yes, she’s new to the political arena in OC, which could work against her, but she seems extremely committed to beating Kim. And we all hope somebody rises up and does just that.
I've met Linh but haven't seen her speak yet. Seeing Gagnier, Varet, and Swift at the same event, Varet rubbed the audience the wrong way based on water-cooler chatter. I like Swift. She’s the most personable and down-to-earth candidate I’ve met, but you may be right about the spark. Gagnier appears to be the most qualified and closest to the issues. Kerr doesn't believe there is a primary, and is acting like the presumptive nominee even though he has already proved he's not up to the challenge. Maybe the GOP is only going after Varet because she's on the attack (great ad btw), whereas Gagnier is less provocative in her social media, but still addresses the issues. Something which may end up being more attractive to swing voters?
She isn’t from here our county
I wish she would spend her money on a candidate who is more qualified. I hope some one can defeat Young Kim but being represented by a mega-rich art dealer who doesn't live in CA40 wouldn't be my first choice. I heard Christina Gagnier speak last Monday and thought she was very impressive. More candidates are coming...
Thank you for your work, Jeff Pearlman! Is Esther Kim Varet working with the local Dem Clubs and the DPOC to get party support and the endorsement?
Chris is not running anymore, great guy though
I agree she’s doing everything right.