Good read, Jeff. Full Transparency: I'm a Vice Chair with the OC Democratic Party Central Committee, as well as a Delegate to the state party. Part of my area as a vice chair is CD-40. The major part of the role of state delegates is to vote for state officers - AND cast votes for endorsement for state and national offices. So I've spent time speaking with almost every Democrat who has cast their hat in the ring for CD-40 (I'm meeting up with one candidate later this week). I'm against carpetbagging, but the issue of residency only becomes a thing for me in Congressional races when: 1. Candidates lie or try to hide where they live; 2. Candidates have no idea about the issues in any part of the District they are trying to serve. CD-40 is huge. I live in Orange. I'm a former reporter and have worked jobs that coincidentally touched almost every part of OC in the district - but I still wouldn't claim to know enough. I'm not going to run down the list, but I have qualms with every candidate I've met so far in a more-than "This Isn't My Person" aspect. Most of the candidates I've spoken with have many likable, respectable qualities. Many of them - I believe - would be better served (as well as the community) if they ran for local office first to gain an understanding of how government works, as well as to give constituents a better look at them to see how they would/could be if elected to Congress. But it's early in this election cycle. I look forward to seeing how these candidates do in terms of reaching out to everyday voters and not the insiders like me. Also, they're going to have to raise a lot of money to get name ID, to get through the primary and have a chance at unseating an incumbent. We're talking about millions of dollars for marketing/advertising/campaigning. Good luck to them all.
Thank you for your input! This race could be the difference between getting a 3rd impeachment and conviction or more chaos, cruelty, and destruction. I have been obsessed with flipping this seat for the past 2 elections. I wish we were all in for supporting Joe Kerr's momentum because I feel he has the best chance to win. Young Kim had 10 times the campaign funds he had and she was unable to do the usual MO of Republicans - flood us with attack ads. She did that with Asif Mahomood. All of the contenders I've seen so far are vulnerable. Christina Gagnier will be attacked for supporting transgender athletes. That issue will lose votes from all parties. Perry Meade will be attacked for being too young and inexperienced. Esther Kim Varet will be attacked for being a wealthy art dealer and inexperienced. It would be great to have a young, diverse, progressive candidate, but the old, white union firefighter is our safest bet. None of these candidates is going to fire people up to turn out to vote, but flipping the seat might give us the advantage we need to get 50% plus 1 ballot!
My wife and I hosted Christina Gagnier last weekend. Our Yorba Linda and Placentia friends all left as enthusiastic supporters. She has been challenging the MAGA beast head-on in Chino for years. She lost to Sonia Shaw by 317 votes in MAGA Mordor. Please do not underestimate the strength, courage, intelligence, and commitment needed to fight MAGA on its home turf. Here's my endorsement of Christina.
Unfortunately, Young Kim has millions of dollars to spend on attack ads for someone who supports transgender athletes. Christina will be advertised as a groomer and pedophile and would lose too many votes. The last school board candidate lost to Joe Kerr in the primary without defending transgender athletes. We need to be strategic about who can win this race.
All right. Hi there Pearlman. Let's start with "We have several Democratic candidates who either don’t live here or moved here out of convenience to run. Joe isn’t that type." Yes, he IS that type. He's lucky now (and last year) that a race opened up that's actually where he lives. (Ironically now that he doesn't have to perjure himself to run, since Congress doesn't have the residency requirement.
But, as you admit, Coto "has been his home for decades." Here's where your friend Vern's longer involvement in OC politics can help you. In 2018 he ran for Supervisor up here in north OC and faked a residence - he couldn't even decide which town he pretended to live in - but when he finally settled on one that means he committed perjury, and if he tried that today Spitzer would be throwing the book at him.
*I* wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt, because, given his rotten opponents that year - mendacious Doug Chaffee, racist Lucille Kring, and extremely rightwing Tim Shaw - I liked what he had to say and wanted to help him against everyone who said he was lying about where he lived. So I called him, and he said "Let's have a beer at my new place." At the last minute he called and said, "You know what, let's have a beer at the Placentia Fire Station instead, I AM a retired firefighter you know!"
I would love to see a column where you compare all the candidates’ community/political accomplishments. You wouldn’t have to do all that much digging. Just ask each of them to give you a list. Run it by a few local activists who have been around the block a few times for fact-checking.
As one of the past Chairs of the Democratic Party of OC, I have seen candidates for Congress come and go. 2017 was a banner year for lots of folks with no plan and few resources to jump in and run for one of the hot seats up in 2018. Where are they now?
At that time Perry Meade was recruiting young candidates to run for city councils in south OC. His political experience and "chops" have skyrocketed since. His campaign kick off is coming up in mid-July. I encourage you to have coffee with Perry to learn his story and to hear about his well organized campaign for the Congressional District in which he grew up.
I was excited for Perry's future when I met him back then. He has a real grasp on issues that impact all of us from baby boomers to our kids and grandkids. I'm very excited to get on board with Perry's campaign to be the future of CD 40 and to be my Congressman!
I completely agree. Perry has the energy, the passion, and the political chops to run a successful campaign in CA-40. He is the kind of candidate who will be able to attract and energize young voters. AND he lives in the district, grew up here in OC, and understands the issues that matter to voters in that district.
Jeff, I suggest you take some time to meet with Perry before you dismiss him as a viable candidate.
I live in 49 but I whole heartedly supported Joe Kerr last election. I’ve been staying back looking at how the candidates present. I have known Perry Meade since we ran together as ADEM representatives in 2017. He has done more for the Democratic Party in OC than any of the other candidates. He’s just the kind of hardworking Democrat that I, as an oldster, am ready to step aside for. His understanding of what is needed by the people is excellent and his political knowledge is unmatched here in this race. Remember NY. Let’s get the young people excited to get involved.
I'm interested to see how Perry Meade campaigns. I met him in 2018 when we were both volunteering for Katie Porter's first election. I am pretty sure he was shaving even then. He has been living & breathing politics probably his whole life, at least since I met him.
Unfortunately, our district cannot elect someone like NYC did. Not yet. We are progressing, but it’s going to take a lot of work to flip this seat with a moderate candidate.
Sorry - but I disagree. We don't know who will capture the voters attention. Joe keeps running & losing. Oh did you know, he was a firefighter? That's not a platform. And I sure didn't appreciate his ridiculous attacks against his opponent. Joe has never been able to raise money, the #1 thing candidates need to do. He loaned his campaign $500K and then said he outraised his opponent. No thank you. I was pretty sure Katie Porter would never win with her talk of healthcare for all but I supported her nonetheless and look what happened.
I invite you to canvass and do voter registration drives in CA40 to get to know voters in our district and to work on the biggest problem for ALL candidates - low voter turnout. It's especially low for our dwindling population of young voters. Katie Porter endorsed Joe and he won the primary against a school board candidate. He spent decades working with lawmakers to make the lives of firefighters better and to protect Orange County from wildfires and the resulting air pollution they cause. (#1 contributor to air pollution). If we know a school board candidate can't win among Democrats, why would we elect one to run against a Republican? Makes no sense to me.
I have! The fact that Joe couldn't raise any money, even locally, means he will never win. Yes, he got endorsements, he's a union guy, but in this case, I totally agree with Jeff Pearlman's assessment. Let's hope we have a candidate we can all get excited about after the primary.
One of the reasons he couldn't raise any money locally was that CA40 was considered a waste of time and money. My group of activists was angry with me for" wasting my time" doing voter drives and canvassing for CA40. I was so optimistic, I wanted to prove everyone wrong and get both Allyson and Joe on the ballot and unseat Young Kim in the primary! When you're outspent 10 to 1, it makes it very tough. I ignored all the naysayers and worked my tail off to get closer to flipping it and now our resources are divided between several candidates. We have people (sounds like you might be one of them) who won't vote blue no matter who. Lots of young people I talked to refuse to vote for either party, which is like a vote for Young Kim. We are our own worst enemy by not focusing on our goal of taking control of this lawless administration with no accountability from the Supreme Court.We the people is our last hope and uniting to elect the candidate who won the primary last time is our best shot in CA40.
When my former representative Eric Swalwell first ran against Pete Stark (D), everybody had voted for Pete for 40 years — based on name recognition and his tenure status — even though he didn’t live in the district, but rather in Maryland. (He owned a house in the district that had renters for years.) He’d stopped showing up for votes and didn’t have town halls. I think what made the difference for Swalwell to win was that he really highlighted how uninvolved Stark had been. Swally had zero support from the Democrats but managed to win because Stark’s ambivalence towards his district and doing his job spoke volumes. Hopefully when the election campaigns start in earnest, we have someone to take on Kim who has the backing of Leaders We Deserve (David Hogg) or the Democratic Party. Hopefully they can show what a waste of space she’s been and how apathetic she is to her constituents (except those who go to her expensive find-raising events). There’s got to be someone on a city council in one of the cities she represents who’s willing to step up. But it may take some research and convincing. Taking on MAGA and their congressional sheep definitely seems like a punishing tack. Whoever runs will need strong, virtual armor, ready for whatever MAGA and Kim throws at them.
I hope all of these candidates support whoever wins the primary with their funds and their supporters. That didn’t happen in the last election. Democrats need to focus on the importance of winning this seat and all pull together to make it happen! 50k registered democrats did not vote in the last election. Unbelievable.
#3. I had to write a second piece about Kerr during last year's primary, partly because of the lies and crazy claims that his supporters (both of them) made in the comments section of the previous one... but ALSO because he and his campaign were telling so many lies about his fine opponent Allyson Damikolas. https://www.orangejuiceblog.com/2024/03/and-the-lies-keep-on-spewing-from-poseidon-joe-kerr/
Good comment section there too. China is a fierce defender of her husband, but pretty fast and loose with the truth, LOL.
My good friend Sam Myovich has written an endorsement of Christina Gagnier on my blog, you might should check that out too. I'm glad I don't have to choose between Christina and Esther. But we don't want Joe. Not only is he a long shot at beating Young Kim, but even if he won he is not the kind of politician we could trust in Congress.
Christina will be attacked mercilessly with millions of dollars of ads for her support for transgender athletes. The school board candidate did not do well in the last election without being known as the diversity champion for marginalized people. We can’t take that risk for this crucial election.
What? Joe won the 2024 Democratic congressional primary — a certified public election. Winning a congressional primary is literally how you get on the general ballot as the duly elected Democratic candidate. Talk about spreading rumors.
"Third, Kerr didn’t run a bad race against Kim. With little (cough, no) help from the national Democrats, he dropped a 55.3-44.7 decision to an incumbent. As he and his campaign like to note, he closed a statistical gap."
Had the DCCC given even a smattering of support to Kerr that was given to Min, Tran, and Rollins.
#2. Jeff, I have to tell you about Poseidon. This would have been a $1.5 billion desalination plant in Huntington Beach, proposed by a Canadian hedge fund, which we fought for nearly two decades - around 2004 till 2022 when the California Coastal Commission finally killed it.
It's pretty unbelievable how bad it would have been. Starting with taxpayer subsidies, it also would have raised everybody's water rates in the Northern half of OC (Irvine up to La Habra/Seal Beach) substantially while actually NOT getting us a new drop of water, but it woulda been great for developers AND short-sighted construction union leaders who only look at the temporary work they can get. It would have damaged the environment in several ways - slaughtering millions of sea larvae in its intake pipes, creating a dead zone of brine around HB, and pumping out greenhouse gas emissions.
So it was opposed by both environmentalists and good government people - sadly a MINORITY in both major Parties - as well as a huge grassroots network of activists. Meanwhile nearly all Republican politicians AND SADLY, MOST Democrats as well, went to bat for it. Duh, these crooks all got campaign loot from Poseidon over those 18 years. I wrote about it in a piece that pissed a lot of people off: https://www.orangejuiceblog.com/2021/04/the-poseidon-whores/
Gavin Newsom was one Democrat who wanted to foist the boondoggle on OC because he doesn't care about us here, and he appointed Joe Kerr onto an important water board at the last minute, to try to make the conditions of the environmental "mitigation" Poseidon would have to do as minimal as possible. Help their profits, smooth the way, screw the environment. I still had Joe's cell number and wanted to tell him why he should vote against it, but he wouldn't answer my calls any more... and voted to smooth the way.
Then when I posted about this on my blog during last year's campaign, his longtime buddy and political consultant got on and lied about it, tried to claim Joe voted AGAINST Poseidon. Once I proved him wrong, he immediately segued into claiming it was GOOD that Joe supported Poseidon. It was a lot like when Rick James said "I never rubbed my muddy boots on Eddie Murphy's couch, why would I do that?" and minutes later "Of course I rubbed my boots on Eddie's couch, he could afford a new one!" You really GOTTA read the comments section of this piece it's hilarious!
But for two decades, Poseidon was an excellent litmus test for the honesty and intelligence of OC politicians. If they supported it, after everything that was known about it, they were either corrupt & paid-off, or stupid, or (all too frequently) BOTH.
Thanks for writing about our district! Part of our problem I think is OUR problem, meaning we the constituents who did not do enough to unseat Kim and are not as active as other folks in OC. We have some amazing folks who always get out there, including some of your regular readers, but there’s a lot of untapped potential here. I think we need to coalesce around a strong candidate and we need to do it early. I’d love a side by side comparison from you.
Totally agree with you! The earlier the better to work on one campaign. I have not been impressed with the new candidates entering the race. Check out Christina Gagnier’s response when asked who her heroes are in Congress on the video in a previous article in Truth OC. She couldn’t name ONE!! Why is she running for an office where she doesn’t have heroes? My list is VERY long and even includes 2 Republicans- Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger. This race is way too critical to risk electing someone who doesn’t recognize all the heroes fighting against the MAGA bullies.
I've kind sorta maybe been at it here in the 0C 49th (south county oc) since 2016.
Meade was a democrative activist at saddleback college at that time. he was in leadership (i believe) in saddleback democratice club (if there is such a thing.....my memory).
As far as I'm concerned (not worth much...but...) he is part of the "yute (read youth)" upcoming order, ala ACO, etc. This coming from a 65yr old (wanna be 25) Geezer (or should that be "geyser").
Hi! Appreciate the conversation here— just adding a perspective grounded in the data.
There’s been a lot of discussion in the comments here about “starting from scratch,” but if we step back and look at the numbers, this wasn’t a candidate problem.
Joe earned 171,637 votes, including nearly 38,000 from Republicans and NPPs. This shows his message resonated across party lines.
His extensive background in public safety and his proven track record of getting bipartisan legislative results in both Sacramento and Washington appealed to a broad cross-section of voters, including many conservatives. Respectfully, that’s not something any of the other candidates in this race can claim.
Switching candidates risks losing that hard-won crossover support — and we’re going to need those votes to win. And, given the chaos coming out of Washington right now, that crossover support is likely to grow. A lot of center-right voters are fed up with performative politics and reckless policy. As a more moderate candidate, Joe offers those voters a grounded, commonsense alternative — and based on the conversations he’s having every day, it’s already resonating.
In 2024, Joe cut the GOP advantage in CA-40 down to about 2 points, shifted the district three points to the left (the fifth-largest Democratic swing in the country) and outperformed the 2022 Democratic nominee by 49,000 votes. And he did it without any institutional support.
Joe didn’t just narrow the gap — he put CA-40 on the map. Now it’s the #1 congressional seat to flip in CA, and that’s because of the groundwork his campaign laid in 2024.
Again, not a candidate problem. A missed opportunity by the Party.
So what went wrong? Turnout.
In November 2024, nearly 49,000 registered Democrats in CA-40 didn’t vote. Neither did 59,000 NPPs.
That’s a huge untapped voter pool. But guess what: we only needed 20,181 more votes to flip this seat. That’s it.
We could have won on Democratic turnout alone. We didn’t even need every Democrat to show up — just 41% of those who stayed home. Two out of five. If they had voted, Joe would be in Congress and Young Kim would be out of a job.
So instead of rebooting the whole race, we should build on the momentum of the candidate who already brought us to the edge of a win — and also focus on mobilizing the voters we already know are with us.
This loss was on us. But it’s fixable if we organize and show up in 2026. We can do this if we work together.
Working together is key! Everyone should be doing something - registering voters with Field Team 6 doing voter registration drives and/or writing postcards, protesting, canvassing, making phone calls…all hands on deck!
As someone who spent hundreds of hours knocking on doors for both Asif Mahmood and Joe Kerr and has lived in CA 40 for decades, I believe Joe Kerr has the best chance of winning and he is the candidate I want to represent me in Congress. He is a champion of progressive causes, gun safety legislation, reproductive rights, the environment, etc. He has experience working in government to make lives better for working people. Yes, he’s a dude, yes, he’s old. Having the first union firefighter elected to Congress is a better shot than someone from a school board, a 25 yr old, or a wealthy art dealer. It seems like such a no brainer to me. He was well received by Republicans and NPP people I spoke with while campaigning. Now is not a good time for people with school board experience to run. He has momentum and I firmly believe he could’ve won with support from national groups. Once the primary is over, I hope EVERYONE can come together to work their tails off to make sure we get out the vote! About 50K registered Democrats did not vote for him in the last election. If that doesn’t change, we won’t win. Voting is not a Valentine! And this seat HAS to be flipped so we can get impeachment #3 with a conviction.
First off. Which CA40 candidate did all of those currently running for CA40 vote for in the last election?
We know how Joe Kerr voted.
If Kerr wins the primary. It will be the first time Young Kim has faced the same candidate twice in a row. She handily defeated (13%) Dr. Asif Mahmood. Despite his spending millions of his personal resources.
If the Dems continue to run a fresh face against YK. Particularly one with zero name ID. The odds of defeating Young Kim get more difficult. Even for the candidates who have significant personal resources like Esther Kim.
Good read, Jeff. Full Transparency: I'm a Vice Chair with the OC Democratic Party Central Committee, as well as a Delegate to the state party. Part of my area as a vice chair is CD-40. The major part of the role of state delegates is to vote for state officers - AND cast votes for endorsement for state and national offices. So I've spent time speaking with almost every Democrat who has cast their hat in the ring for CD-40 (I'm meeting up with one candidate later this week). I'm against carpetbagging, but the issue of residency only becomes a thing for me in Congressional races when: 1. Candidates lie or try to hide where they live; 2. Candidates have no idea about the issues in any part of the District they are trying to serve. CD-40 is huge. I live in Orange. I'm a former reporter and have worked jobs that coincidentally touched almost every part of OC in the district - but I still wouldn't claim to know enough. I'm not going to run down the list, but I have qualms with every candidate I've met so far in a more-than "This Isn't My Person" aspect. Most of the candidates I've spoken with have many likable, respectable qualities. Many of them - I believe - would be better served (as well as the community) if they ran for local office first to gain an understanding of how government works, as well as to give constituents a better look at them to see how they would/could be if elected to Congress. But it's early in this election cycle. I look forward to seeing how these candidates do in terms of reaching out to everyday voters and not the insiders like me. Also, they're going to have to raise a lot of money to get name ID, to get through the primary and have a chance at unseating an incumbent. We're talking about millions of dollars for marketing/advertising/campaigning. Good luck to them all.
Thank you for your input! This race could be the difference between getting a 3rd impeachment and conviction or more chaos, cruelty, and destruction. I have been obsessed with flipping this seat for the past 2 elections. I wish we were all in for supporting Joe Kerr's momentum because I feel he has the best chance to win. Young Kim had 10 times the campaign funds he had and she was unable to do the usual MO of Republicans - flood us with attack ads. She did that with Asif Mahomood. All of the contenders I've seen so far are vulnerable. Christina Gagnier will be attacked for supporting transgender athletes. That issue will lose votes from all parties. Perry Meade will be attacked for being too young and inexperienced. Esther Kim Varet will be attacked for being a wealthy art dealer and inexperienced. It would be great to have a young, diverse, progressive candidate, but the old, white union firefighter is our safest bet. None of these candidates is going to fire people up to turn out to vote, but flipping the seat might give us the advantage we need to get 50% plus 1 ballot!
"It would be great to have a young, diverse, progressive candidate"..
They would lose big time unless the seat was just Santa Ana. Find a charismatic moderate or Kim gets re-elected.
What you mean supporting transgender athletes? She also has a business background. And is a union member
Thanks for weighing in here!
My wife and I hosted Christina Gagnier last weekend. Our Yorba Linda and Placentia friends all left as enthusiastic supporters. She has been challenging the MAGA beast head-on in Chino for years. She lost to Sonia Shaw by 317 votes in MAGA Mordor. Please do not underestimate the strength, courage, intelligence, and commitment needed to fight MAGA on its home turf. Here's my endorsement of Christina.
https://www.orangejuiceblog.com/2025/06/why-i-support-christina-gagnier-for-ca-40/
Unfortunately, Young Kim has millions of dollars to spend on attack ads for someone who supports transgender athletes. Christina will be advertised as a groomer and pedophile and would lose too many votes. The last school board candidate lost to Joe Kerr in the primary without defending transgender athletes. We need to be strategic about who can win this race.
are you a Republican?
All right. Hi there Pearlman. Let's start with "We have several Democratic candidates who either don’t live here or moved here out of convenience to run. Joe isn’t that type." Yes, he IS that type. He's lucky now (and last year) that a race opened up that's actually where he lives. (Ironically now that he doesn't have to perjure himself to run, since Congress doesn't have the residency requirement.
But, as you admit, Coto "has been his home for decades." Here's where your friend Vern's longer involvement in OC politics can help you. In 2018 he ran for Supervisor up here in north OC and faked a residence - he couldn't even decide which town he pretended to live in - but when he finally settled on one that means he committed perjury, and if he tried that today Spitzer would be throwing the book at him.
*I* wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt, because, given his rotten opponents that year - mendacious Doug Chaffee, racist Lucille Kring, and extremely rightwing Tim Shaw - I liked what he had to say and wanted to help him against everyone who said he was lying about where he lived. So I called him, and he said "Let's have a beer at my new place." At the last minute he called and said, "You know what, let's have a beer at the Placentia Fire Station instead, I AM a retired firefighter you know!"
I wrote about this and more, not only on my blog but also in the Register: https://www.ocregister.com/2024/02/22/in-the-40th-congressional-district-voters-cant-trust-joe-kerr-to-represent-their-interests/ Check it out. More comments coming..........
I would love to see a column where you compare all the candidates’ community/political accomplishments. You wouldn’t have to do all that much digging. Just ask each of them to give you a list. Run it by a few local activists who have been around the block a few times for fact-checking.
As one of the past Chairs of the Democratic Party of OC, I have seen candidates for Congress come and go. 2017 was a banner year for lots of folks with no plan and few resources to jump in and run for one of the hot seats up in 2018. Where are they now?
At that time Perry Meade was recruiting young candidates to run for city councils in south OC. His political experience and "chops" have skyrocketed since. His campaign kick off is coming up in mid-July. I encourage you to have coffee with Perry to learn his story and to hear about his well organized campaign for the Congressional District in which he grew up.
I was excited for Perry's future when I met him back then. He has a real grasp on issues that impact all of us from baby boomers to our kids and grandkids. I'm very excited to get on board with Perry's campaign to be the future of CD 40 and to be my Congressman!
I completely agree. Perry has the energy, the passion, and the political chops to run a successful campaign in CA-40. He is the kind of candidate who will be able to attract and energize young voters. AND he lives in the district, grew up here in OC, and understands the issues that matter to voters in that district.
Jeff, I suggest you take some time to meet with Perry before you dismiss him as a viable candidate.
I live in 49 but I whole heartedly supported Joe Kerr last election. I’ve been staying back looking at how the candidates present. I have known Perry Meade since we ran together as ADEM representatives in 2017. He has done more for the Democratic Party in OC than any of the other candidates. He’s just the kind of hardworking Democrat that I, as an oldster, am ready to step aside for. His understanding of what is needed by the people is excellent and his political knowledge is unmatched here in this race. Remember NY. Let’s get the young people excited to get involved.
I'm interested to see how Perry Meade campaigns. I met him in 2018 when we were both volunteering for Katie Porter's first election. I am pretty sure he was shaving even then. He has been living & breathing politics probably his whole life, at least since I met him.
Maybe he will be our very own Zohran Mamdani.
Unfortunately, our district cannot elect someone like NYC did. Not yet. We are progressing, but it’s going to take a lot of work to flip this seat with a moderate candidate.
Sorry - but I disagree. We don't know who will capture the voters attention. Joe keeps running & losing. Oh did you know, he was a firefighter? That's not a platform. And I sure didn't appreciate his ridiculous attacks against his opponent. Joe has never been able to raise money, the #1 thing candidates need to do. He loaned his campaign $500K and then said he outraised his opponent. No thank you. I was pretty sure Katie Porter would never win with her talk of healthcare for all but I supported her nonetheless and look what happened.
I invite you to canvass and do voter registration drives in CA40 to get to know voters in our district and to work on the biggest problem for ALL candidates - low voter turnout. It's especially low for our dwindling population of young voters. Katie Porter endorsed Joe and he won the primary against a school board candidate. He spent decades working with lawmakers to make the lives of firefighters better and to protect Orange County from wildfires and the resulting air pollution they cause. (#1 contributor to air pollution). If we know a school board candidate can't win among Democrats, why would we elect one to run against a Republican? Makes no sense to me.
I have! The fact that Joe couldn't raise any money, even locally, means he will never win. Yes, he got endorsements, he's a union guy, but in this case, I totally agree with Jeff Pearlman's assessment. Let's hope we have a candidate we can all get excited about after the primary.
And how can you say he couldn't raise any money, therefore he will never win when he won the primary? How was that possible?
One of the reasons he couldn't raise any money locally was that CA40 was considered a waste of time and money. My group of activists was angry with me for" wasting my time" doing voter drives and canvassing for CA40. I was so optimistic, I wanted to prove everyone wrong and get both Allyson and Joe on the ballot and unseat Young Kim in the primary! When you're outspent 10 to 1, it makes it very tough. I ignored all the naysayers and worked my tail off to get closer to flipping it and now our resources are divided between several candidates. We have people (sounds like you might be one of them) who won't vote blue no matter who. Lots of young people I talked to refuse to vote for either party, which is like a vote for Young Kim. We are our own worst enemy by not focusing on our goal of taking control of this lawless administration with no accountability from the Supreme Court.We the people is our last hope and uniting to elect the candidate who won the primary last time is our best shot in CA40.
When my former representative Eric Swalwell first ran against Pete Stark (D), everybody had voted for Pete for 40 years — based on name recognition and his tenure status — even though he didn’t live in the district, but rather in Maryland. (He owned a house in the district that had renters for years.) He’d stopped showing up for votes and didn’t have town halls. I think what made the difference for Swalwell to win was that he really highlighted how uninvolved Stark had been. Swally had zero support from the Democrats but managed to win because Stark’s ambivalence towards his district and doing his job spoke volumes. Hopefully when the election campaigns start in earnest, we have someone to take on Kim who has the backing of Leaders We Deserve (David Hogg) or the Democratic Party. Hopefully they can show what a waste of space she’s been and how apathetic she is to her constituents (except those who go to her expensive find-raising events). There’s got to be someone on a city council in one of the cities she represents who’s willing to step up. But it may take some research and convincing. Taking on MAGA and their congressional sheep definitely seems like a punishing tack. Whoever runs will need strong, virtual armor, ready for whatever MAGA and Kim throws at them.
Wow, that's how Swalwell came to pass? And look - now we have the great Swalwell! Figures he started without the Party's support, I did not know that.
I hope all of these candidates support whoever wins the primary with their funds and their supporters. That didn’t happen in the last election. Democrats need to focus on the importance of winning this seat and all pull together to make it happen! 50k registered democrats did not vote in the last election. Unbelievable.
That’s because Joe Kerr was nasty in the primary. And he’s lazy
#3. I had to write a second piece about Kerr during last year's primary, partly because of the lies and crazy claims that his supporters (both of them) made in the comments section of the previous one... but ALSO because he and his campaign were telling so many lies about his fine opponent Allyson Damikolas. https://www.orangejuiceblog.com/2024/03/and-the-lies-keep-on-spewing-from-poseidon-joe-kerr/
Good comment section there too. China is a fierce defender of her husband, but pretty fast and loose with the truth, LOL.
My good friend Sam Myovich has written an endorsement of Christina Gagnier on my blog, you might should check that out too. I'm glad I don't have to choose between Christina and Esther. But we don't want Joe. Not only is he a long shot at beating Young Kim, but even if he won he is not the kind of politician we could trust in Congress.
Myovich on Gagnier: https://www.orangejuiceblog.com/2025/06/why-i-support-christina-gagnier-for-ca-40/
Christina will be attacked mercilessly with millions of dollars of ads for her support for transgender athletes. The school board candidate did not do well in the last election without being known as the diversity champion for marginalized people. We can’t take that risk for this crucial election.
You keep spreading this rumor! Joe Kerr has never won a race.
What? Joe won the 2024 Democratic congressional primary — a certified public election. Winning a congressional primary is literally how you get on the general ballot as the duly elected Democratic candidate. Talk about spreading rumors.
One more point.
"Third, Kerr didn’t run a bad race against Kim. With little (cough, no) help from the national Democrats, he dropped a 55.3-44.7 decision to an incumbent. As he and his campaign like to note, he closed a statistical gap."
Had the DCCC given even a smattering of support to Kerr that was given to Min, Tran, and Rollins.
This seat would have flipped in 2024.
#2. Jeff, I have to tell you about Poseidon. This would have been a $1.5 billion desalination plant in Huntington Beach, proposed by a Canadian hedge fund, which we fought for nearly two decades - around 2004 till 2022 when the California Coastal Commission finally killed it.
It's pretty unbelievable how bad it would have been. Starting with taxpayer subsidies, it also would have raised everybody's water rates in the Northern half of OC (Irvine up to La Habra/Seal Beach) substantially while actually NOT getting us a new drop of water, but it woulda been great for developers AND short-sighted construction union leaders who only look at the temporary work they can get. It would have damaged the environment in several ways - slaughtering millions of sea larvae in its intake pipes, creating a dead zone of brine around HB, and pumping out greenhouse gas emissions.
So it was opposed by both environmentalists and good government people - sadly a MINORITY in both major Parties - as well as a huge grassroots network of activists. Meanwhile nearly all Republican politicians AND SADLY, MOST Democrats as well, went to bat for it. Duh, these crooks all got campaign loot from Poseidon over those 18 years. I wrote about it in a piece that pissed a lot of people off: https://www.orangejuiceblog.com/2021/04/the-poseidon-whores/
Gavin Newsom was one Democrat who wanted to foist the boondoggle on OC because he doesn't care about us here, and he appointed Joe Kerr onto an important water board at the last minute, to try to make the conditions of the environmental "mitigation" Poseidon would have to do as minimal as possible. Help their profits, smooth the way, screw the environment. I still had Joe's cell number and wanted to tell him why he should vote against it, but he wouldn't answer my calls any more... and voted to smooth the way.
Then when I posted about this on my blog during last year's campaign, his longtime buddy and political consultant got on and lied about it, tried to claim Joe voted AGAINST Poseidon. Once I proved him wrong, he immediately segued into claiming it was GOOD that Joe supported Poseidon. It was a lot like when Rick James said "I never rubbed my muddy boots on Eddie Murphy's couch, why would I do that?" and minutes later "Of course I rubbed my boots on Eddie's couch, he could afford a new one!" You really GOTTA read the comments section of this piece it's hilarious!
https://www.orangejuiceblog.com/2024/02/ca-40-you-cant-trust-joe-kerr-vote-allyson/
But for two decades, Poseidon was an excellent litmus test for the honesty and intelligence of OC politicians. If they supported it, after everything that was known about it, they were either corrupt & paid-off, or stupid, or (all too frequently) BOTH.
You blast the Poseidon Desal Plant.
And take great joy in its demise.
What do you propose be done to address the looming water crisis that is headed towards SoCal?
Can you show us an example of where your ideas have worked?
Thanks for writing about our district! Part of our problem I think is OUR problem, meaning we the constituents who did not do enough to unseat Kim and are not as active as other folks in OC. We have some amazing folks who always get out there, including some of your regular readers, but there’s a lot of untapped potential here. I think we need to coalesce around a strong candidate and we need to do it early. I’d love a side by side comparison from you.
Totally agree with you! The earlier the better to work on one campaign. I have not been impressed with the new candidates entering the race. Check out Christina Gagnier’s response when asked who her heroes are in Congress on the video in a previous article in Truth OC. She couldn’t name ONE!! Why is she running for an office where she doesn’t have heroes? My list is VERY long and even includes 2 Republicans- Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger. This race is way too critical to risk electing someone who doesn’t recognize all the heroes fighting against the MAGA bullies.
I’d shorten that list now because, respectfully, Cheney and Kinzinger are a very poor fit for 40 specifically. Our constituents want their neighbors.
Wow you really don’t like her be used she’s a woman. She doesn’t need a favorite member of Congress.
I've kind sorta maybe been at it here in the 0C 49th (south county oc) since 2016.
Meade was a democrative activist at saddleback college at that time. he was in leadership (i believe) in saddleback democratice club (if there is such a thing.....my memory).
As far as I'm concerned (not worth much...but...) he is part of the "yute (read youth)" upcoming order, ala ACO, etc. This coming from a 65yr old (wanna be 25) Geezer (or should that be "geyser").
I would be watching him.....
Hi! Appreciate the conversation here— just adding a perspective grounded in the data.
There’s been a lot of discussion in the comments here about “starting from scratch,” but if we step back and look at the numbers, this wasn’t a candidate problem.
Joe earned 171,637 votes, including nearly 38,000 from Republicans and NPPs. This shows his message resonated across party lines.
His extensive background in public safety and his proven track record of getting bipartisan legislative results in both Sacramento and Washington appealed to a broad cross-section of voters, including many conservatives. Respectfully, that’s not something any of the other candidates in this race can claim.
Switching candidates risks losing that hard-won crossover support — and we’re going to need those votes to win. And, given the chaos coming out of Washington right now, that crossover support is likely to grow. A lot of center-right voters are fed up with performative politics and reckless policy. As a more moderate candidate, Joe offers those voters a grounded, commonsense alternative — and based on the conversations he’s having every day, it’s already resonating.
In 2024, Joe cut the GOP advantage in CA-40 down to about 2 points, shifted the district three points to the left (the fifth-largest Democratic swing in the country) and outperformed the 2022 Democratic nominee by 49,000 votes. And he did it without any institutional support.
Joe didn’t just narrow the gap — he put CA-40 on the map. Now it’s the #1 congressional seat to flip in CA, and that’s because of the groundwork his campaign laid in 2024.
Again, not a candidate problem. A missed opportunity by the Party.
So what went wrong? Turnout.
In November 2024, nearly 49,000 registered Democrats in CA-40 didn’t vote. Neither did 59,000 NPPs.
That’s a huge untapped voter pool. But guess what: we only needed 20,181 more votes to flip this seat. That’s it.
We could have won on Democratic turnout alone. We didn’t even need every Democrat to show up — just 41% of those who stayed home. Two out of five. If they had voted, Joe would be in Congress and Young Kim would be out of a job.
So instead of rebooting the whole race, we should build on the momentum of the candidate who already brought us to the edge of a win — and also focus on mobilizing the voters we already know are with us.
This loss was on us. But it’s fixable if we organize and show up in 2026. We can do this if we work together.
Working together is key! Everyone should be doing something - registering voters with Field Team 6 doing voter registration drives and/or writing postcards, protesting, canvassing, making phone calls…all hands on deck!
As someone who spent hundreds of hours knocking on doors for both Asif Mahmood and Joe Kerr and has lived in CA 40 for decades, I believe Joe Kerr has the best chance of winning and he is the candidate I want to represent me in Congress. He is a champion of progressive causes, gun safety legislation, reproductive rights, the environment, etc. He has experience working in government to make lives better for working people. Yes, he’s a dude, yes, he’s old. Having the first union firefighter elected to Congress is a better shot than someone from a school board, a 25 yr old, or a wealthy art dealer. It seems like such a no brainer to me. He was well received by Republicans and NPP people I spoke with while campaigning. Now is not a good time for people with school board experience to run. He has momentum and I firmly believe he could’ve won with support from national groups. Once the primary is over, I hope EVERYONE can come together to work their tails off to make sure we get out the vote! About 50K registered Democrats did not vote for him in the last election. If that doesn’t change, we won’t win. Voting is not a Valentine! And this seat HAS to be flipped so we can get impeachment #3 with a conviction.
He funded anti choice candidates for years.
First off. Which CA40 candidate did all of those currently running for CA40 vote for in the last election?
We know how Joe Kerr voted.
If Kerr wins the primary. It will be the first time Young Kim has faced the same candidate twice in a row. She handily defeated (13%) Dr. Asif Mahmood. Despite his spending millions of his personal resources.
If the Dems continue to run a fresh face against YK. Particularly one with zero name ID. The odds of defeating Young Kim get more difficult. Even for the candidates who have significant personal resources like Esther Kim.