Coffee with Joe Kerr
My thoughts on the CA-40 race. Warning: They're not particularly joyful.
I had coffee with Joe Kerr two weeks ago.
We hung at L’Orange Cafe near the Circle in Orange. We both has drinks. It was lovely.
The meeting took place at the behest of Joe’s wife, China. She sorta felt as if this site has been a bit hard on her man (understandable), who two years ago ran a spirited-yet-unsuccessful campaign against Republican Young Kim for the CA-40 congressional seat. Twice, China has pulled me aside at political gatherings to talk to me about Joe. How great he is. How the national party didn’t properly back him. How he’s a guy who defies the odds. So, because I dig coffee and I dig politics and I believe in being decent, I agreed to a sit-down.
Here’s what I can tell you …
First, Joe Kerr is a dude. What I mean is, were Brad Pitt looking to play a veteran firefighter, he’d have worse choices than portraying this guy. Joe walks with confidence, with gusto, with composure. He has a ton of experience—as a firefighter (He served as a captain with the Orange County Fire Authority for 34 years), as a union rep, as a leader of men and women. Seriously, were I to be attacked by a rabid 75-foot bear, and I could choose one person to help me survive, I may well pick Joe.
Second, Joe Kerr knows CA-40. Like, every nook and cranny of it. We have several Democratic candidates who either don’t live here or moved here out of convenience to run. Joe isn’t that type. This is his home. Has been his home for decades.
Third, Kerr didn’t run a bad race against Kim. With little (cough, no) help from the national Democrats, he dropped a 55.3-44.7 decision to an incumbent. As he and his campaign like to note, he closed a statistical gap.
Fourth, well … um … eh … argh …
This is no indictment of Joe Kerr. Truly, it isn’t. Again, he’s a dude. But if the best candidate we have is a (extremely well-intentioned) 65-year-old retired firefighter who has A. Lost every election he’s participated in and B. Lost this very election two years ago—well, we’ve got some serious problems.
If I’m the GOP, I’m thrilled with another Young Kim-Joe Kerr rematch. And, again, that’s nothing against Joe. He’s a lifelong public servant and a standup guy, and maybe I’m wrong and he can win this thing.
But if I’m being honest, I don’t see it. As much as this sucks (and, indeed, it does suck), it’s hard to get people stirred and motivated at 65. Fuck, it’s hard to be stirred and motivated at 65. I know this is ageist. I know it’s not cool. Seriously, I get it, and your (expected) criticisms are fair. But we’re talking about an election against a stubbornly difficult and painfully likable opponent (we have to be real here: I wish Kim behaved like a MTG or Nancy Mace. But she doesn’t. At all), and to win I think we need someone with a unique level of spark, spunk, passion, oomph, newness.
Has that person entered the race? Well … eh … I’m not sure. I know I wrote somewhat glowingly of Esther Kim Varet a few weeks back, but with exposure comes discomfort. Less than two years ago she was the subject of this W Magazine profile—with the now inconvenient headline, HOME IS WHERE THE ART IS. And where was that home? Hancock Park. The more I read about her, the more it seems like this is a case of, “I wanna be a congresswoman. Where is there a race I can win? Oh, the CA-40! Where is that? More than an hour away? Oh, well, we’re rich AF. Let’s buy a place and run.” Which, eh, feels icky.
Meanwhile, the new kid on the block (who wasn’t alive for the heyday of New Kids on the Block) is Perry Meade, a bruh who literally graduated from college three years ago and just started shaving last week. According to his LinkedIn page, Meade has done everything within his power to present properly for a local election …
But … I dunno, man. I just dunno. What have you done in life at 25? What experiences do you have that suggest you’re ready for a congressional gig? I know super young is the new thing, and New York City may well elect a 33-year-old mayor. But … again. I. Just. Don’t. Know. It feels weird. And Meade’s Instagram feed reads like a cut and paste from some HOW TO MAKE IT IN POLITICS IN 13 EASY STEPS demo.
I know I sound like a Debbie Downer today. But … this feels like an increasingly winnable election. Especially after Young Kim greenlights more and more Trump policies and says nothing about ICE raids and fails to show her face.
But do we have the person to do it?
At this point, I’m not sure.
Good read, Jeff. Full Transparency: I'm a Vice Chair with the OC Democratic Party Central Committee, as well as a Delegate to the state party. Part of my area as a vice chair is CD-40. The major part of the role of state delegates is to vote for state officers - AND cast votes for endorsement for state and national offices. So I've spent time speaking with almost every Democrat who has cast their hat in the ring for CD-40 (I'm meeting up with one candidate later this week). I'm against carpetbagging, but the issue of residency only becomes a thing for me in Congressional races when: 1. Candidates lie or try to hide where they live; 2. Candidates have no idea about the issues in any part of the District they are trying to serve. CD-40 is huge. I live in Orange. I'm a former reporter and have worked jobs that coincidentally touched almost every part of OC in the district - but I still wouldn't claim to know enough. I'm not going to run down the list, but I have qualms with every candidate I've met so far in a more-than "This Isn't My Person" aspect. Most of the candidates I've spoken with have many likable, respectable qualities. Many of them - I believe - would be better served (as well as the community) if they ran for local office first to gain an understanding of how government works, as well as to give constituents a better look at them to see how they would/could be if elected to Congress. But it's early in this election cycle. I look forward to seeing how these candidates do in terms of reaching out to everyday voters and not the insiders like me. Also, they're going to have to raise a lot of money to get name ID, to get through the primary and have a chance at unseating an incumbent. We're talking about millions of dollars for marketing/advertising/campaigning. Good luck to them all.
My wife and I hosted Christina Gagnier last weekend. Our Yorba Linda and Placentia friends all left as enthusiastic supporters. She has been challenging the MAGA beast head-on in Chino for years. She lost to Sonia Shaw by 317 votes in MAGA Mordor. Please do not underestimate the strength, courage, intelligence, and commitment needed to fight MAGA on its home turf. Here's my endorsement of Christina.
https://www.orangejuiceblog.com/2025/06/why-i-support-christina-gagnier-for-ca-40/