Political Science 101: when a sketchy PAC forms four days before the election and starts running ads supporting you, you are either losing or the weakest link. Or, maybe a DINO...
Those are literally the only options.
For those who haven't voted yet, give that a long hard think.
3. We simply can't and won't know until late Tues what we've ended up with
Since Trump hit office again, I have gotten used to the dissolution with what politics used to be. All I can do is fight my fight and hope for the best.
Yes, when I read the Popular Info piece by Judd Legnum, I understood full well what was going on. Upon reflection, however, Esther never had a chance because she gets in her own way, and CA-40 is very red. So the PAC is also wasting money there, just not as much as it might have. Peace to you. Please don't move to Guam. You might not like writing about politics, but you are great at this stuff!
Esther has the strongest statement against such super PAC activity if one goes by statements on the websites of the candidates. This is a Citizens United issue.
Looking at the Democrat candidates' websites, here's what I see with respect to this issue:
Joe:
Increase transparency in campaign finance so billionaires and dark money groups cannot buy influence; and...
Lisa:
Couldn't find anything directly applicable to Citizens United or Super PAC's.
Esther:
Legislation to reverse the harmful SCOTUS “Citizens United” ruling
The candidates may have also addressed this in ads, talks, and so forth. This is just looking at the policies and priorities stated on their web sites.
CA 40 Election math will be interesting. Assume the GOP Gets what it wants, Kim or Calvert against Esther-Kim-Varet. In the 40, registered voters:
Dems — 55,198 (31%)
GOP— 72,704 (41%)
Non-Part — 38,347 (22%)
Others — 11,865 (6%)
I hold that every Congressional seat has to be considered up for grabs by the Dems, and local efforts have to reflect a really good chance of winning. That is, no such thing right now as a “safe” GOP seat. Have to have that mindset.
Here’s how i see a possible Election Day going for each:
Dems — 10% stay home, 5,000 chase one of the “others”, and 45,000 vote for the Dem candidate.
GOP — 10% stay home, 15% vote Dem, and the remaining 56,000 vote for GOP candidate.
Non-Partisan — 10% stay home, and they break for Dem candidate 60/40; 21,000 for the Dem and 14,000 for GOP.
Total these up and the Dem wins 76,000 to 70,000.
Now, I think the Dems will capture more of the Dems, and maybe even more of the GOP based on gas and war, and, really, can see even a greater number of Non-Pars than 60/40 swinging Dem.
So, a 9% gap is not really a gap this mid-term, as we are seeing around the country.
And, the first, the very first thing on a recent Young Kim flyer as to her accomplishments and goals — as a “MAGA Warrior” who “stands with Trump 100% of the time” was “ENFORCE TERM LIMITS”. WTF??? What term limits, whose term limits are you enforcing? Is that all? No, she also supports “No Amnesty for Illegals” (amnesty?) and “Ban Sex Changes for Kids” If that’s her and probably similar to Calvert’s campaign pitch, if i were a Dem, and I’m not, I would be shouting BRING IT ON. Let’s F*ING WIN THIS THING. And, Jesus will be invited….
Nice analysis. Always fun to consider the what-ifs. Step 1 we will find out the results of the Primary. Depending on how close, media may call the result within a day or two. It will definitely be determined by the official certification date which is July 2nd for the counties to certify their results. CA SOS then certifies by July 10th.
And why all the wasteful glossy ads from/about Foley? Who during the year never sends even a cheap postcard to the masses, offering to help? Of course I voted for her.
Please write about how the DNC apparently muzzles the local Dem clubs on the big issues. War. AIPAC. The DNC autopsy report that didn’t address Biden’s age or Gaza.
I live in this district also. The truth is that since the passage of prop 50 the dccc wanted the two republicans to fight each other and spend money and the only one that has a chance to make it out of our jungle primary is Esther and Ken Calvert knows that this. The district is mainly in Riverside county now and past performance by Kerr will not matter. I admire Lisa’s immigration work and Joe’s contribution to the labor movement and I have not endorsed in this race but this is the reality.
Jeez, Pearl…that a bit harsh on Steve Winwood. 🙂
Political Science 101: when a sketchy PAC forms four days before the election and starts running ads supporting you, you are either losing or the weakest link. Or, maybe a DINO...
Those are literally the only options.
For those who haven't voted yet, give that a long hard think.
1. You deserve a break for sure
2. I'm hoping for a Hail Mary
3. We simply can't and won't know until late Tues what we've ended up with
Since Trump hit office again, I have gotten used to the dissolution with what politics used to be. All I can do is fight my fight and hope for the best.
Yes, when I read the Popular Info piece by Judd Legnum, I understood full well what was going on. Upon reflection, however, Esther never had a chance because she gets in her own way, and CA-40 is very red. So the PAC is also wasting money there, just not as much as it might have. Peace to you. Please don't move to Guam. You might not like writing about politics, but you are great at this stuff!
Esther is being propped up by Republicans. Cool, cool.
She is a Graham Platner-level trainwreck.
Esther has the strongest statement against such super PAC activity if one goes by statements on the websites of the candidates. This is a Citizens United issue.
Looking at the Democrat candidates' websites, here's what I see with respect to this issue:
Joe:
Increase transparency in campaign finance so billionaires and dark money groups cannot buy influence; and...
Lisa:
Couldn't find anything directly applicable to Citizens United or Super PAC's.
Esther:
Legislation to reverse the harmful SCOTUS “Citizens United” ruling
The candidates may have also addressed this in ads, talks, and so forth. This is just looking at the policies and priorities stated on their web sites.
CA 40 Election math will be interesting. Assume the GOP Gets what it wants, Kim or Calvert against Esther-Kim-Varet. In the 40, registered voters:
Dems — 55,198 (31%)
GOP— 72,704 (41%)
Non-Part — 38,347 (22%)
Others — 11,865 (6%)
I hold that every Congressional seat has to be considered up for grabs by the Dems, and local efforts have to reflect a really good chance of winning. That is, no such thing right now as a “safe” GOP seat. Have to have that mindset.
Here’s how i see a possible Election Day going for each:
Dems — 10% stay home, 5,000 chase one of the “others”, and 45,000 vote for the Dem candidate.
GOP — 10% stay home, 15% vote Dem, and the remaining 56,000 vote for GOP candidate.
Non-Partisan — 10% stay home, and they break for Dem candidate 60/40; 21,000 for the Dem and 14,000 for GOP.
Total these up and the Dem wins 76,000 to 70,000.
Now, I think the Dems will capture more of the Dems, and maybe even more of the GOP based on gas and war, and, really, can see even a greater number of Non-Pars than 60/40 swinging Dem.
So, a 9% gap is not really a gap this mid-term, as we are seeing around the country.
And, the first, the very first thing on a recent Young Kim flyer as to her accomplishments and goals — as a “MAGA Warrior” who “stands with Trump 100% of the time” was “ENFORCE TERM LIMITS”. WTF??? What term limits, whose term limits are you enforcing? Is that all? No, she also supports “No Amnesty for Illegals” (amnesty?) and “Ban Sex Changes for Kids” If that’s her and probably similar to Calvert’s campaign pitch, if i were a Dem, and I’m not, I would be shouting BRING IT ON. Let’s F*ING WIN THIS THING. And, Jesus will be invited….
Nice analysis. Always fun to consider the what-ifs. Step 1 we will find out the results of the Primary. Depending on how close, media may call the result within a day or two. It will definitely be determined by the official certification date which is July 2nd for the counties to certify their results. CA SOS then certifies by July 10th.
https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/upcoming-elections/primary-election-june-2-2026/key-dates-and-deadlines
And why all the wasteful glossy ads from/about Foley? Who during the year never sends even a cheap postcard to the masses, offering to help? Of course I voted for her.
Please write about how the DNC apparently muzzles the local Dem clubs on the big issues. War. AIPAC. The DNC autopsy report that didn’t address Biden’s age or Gaza.
Please write about the biggest donations. Thank you for covering all this!
I live in this district also. The truth is that since the passage of prop 50 the dccc wanted the two republicans to fight each other and spend money and the only one that has a chance to make it out of our jungle primary is Esther and Ken Calvert knows that this. The district is mainly in Riverside county now and past performance by Kerr will not matter. I admire Lisa’s immigration work and Joe’s contribution to the labor movement and I have not endorsed in this race but this is the reality.