A (praise Jesus) final look at the CA-40

Please, make this end.

We are two days away from the end of voting for the CA-40 primary.

I am so fucking relieved.

Just being blunt and honest, I hate this race in the way I hate oral herpes, three-legged cats, moldy olives, the mid-1980s music of Steve Winwood, my mom’s homemade pizza, the kid who punched me in seventh grade, potholes, nose pimples, barbed wire tattoos, “Rocky V” and J.D. Vance’s beard.

I hate it.

And over the past couple of days, that hatred has only inflamed itself, like a pyromaniac hosting a fireworks display. I have been in contact with the campaigns and/or representatives and/or boosters of all three Democrats (Lisa Ramirez, Joe Kerr, Esther Kim Varet), each squad looking to up their odds of somehow placing Top 2 in a race that includes a pair of incumbent Republicans (Young Kim and Ken Calvert) who are overflowing with dough and name recognition in a plus-9 GOP district (rejiggered via Prop 50).

So—for the final time—let’s discuss …

First, I need to say this: Don’t hate me. Seriously, don’t hate me. I’ve received plenty of scorn these past bunch o’ days, and, well, literally any of y’all could have started your own free political substacks and wallowed in this hellscape. I began The Truth OC because I was horrified by the lack of local political coverage. If you don’t like my takes—fine. But I’m trying my absolute best, and the ol’ “If you really love democracy, you’ll support [Blank]” and “If you’re genuine, you’ll admit you were wrong about [Blank]” is bullshit. We exist in a medium of emotions. Don’t let yours go off the tracks by solely blaming the messenger.

Also, post-results, do NOT damn me for your preferred candidate not winning. Orange County is enormous. The 40th is enormous. The odds X candidate triumphs or Y candidate fails because the sentiments of a hack sportswriter—fairly low.

Second, many people (affiliated with rival-Esther campaigns and unaffiliated with rival-Esther campaigns) recently directed me toward POPULAR INFORMATION, a substack operated by the terrific Judd Legum. And in his newest post, headlined, TWO ‘“PROGRESSIVE” SUPER PACS LINKED TO HOUSE GOP, Judd delves into a super PAC, “California Blue,” that passes itself off as liberal and pro-Democrat, but—beneath the underbelly—appears to try and muck up our side of the aisle.

Writes Judd:

Here is the pro-Esther California Blue advertisement …

And it gets even stranger …

Inevitably, this release—sent to me via Jerica Acero, Joe Kerr’s campaign manager, followed …

And …

And …

And …

Glub.

Here is what I believe, based upon my time writing about these races and insights from folks I trust:

• 1. The last thing the Republican Party wants is a general election campaign between Young Kim and Ken Calvert. Why? Because it’ll pit two comparable candidates unloading gobs and gobs and gobs of money on savaging one another. Millions upon millions upon millions of dollars will be spent—money that, with a singular Republican running, could be directed toward other campaigns/races. Truly, Kim v. Calvert is a GOP nightmare. Yeah, a Republican would win. But the financial drainage (especially in a rough year for the party) would be nothing short of crippling.

• 2. Ken Calvert may well be the most sad and pathetic sack of lard I’ve ever seen. And I’ve seen many sad and pathetic sacks of lard …

• 3. Republican operatives have been playing the Esther Kim Varet campaign for a good while now. They’ve issued releases to boost her status; they’ve discussed how afraid they are of her; they’ve literally donated money. Why? Well, first, (again) the GOP doesn’t want two Republicans in the general. Second, Esther is (it seems) the only Democrat who can crack the Top 2. Third, she’s not a real win-the-general-election threat. I know that’s a bummer, but it’s true. She’s way too undisciplined and haphazard to upset seasoned pols in a district that already favors their success.

• 4. The DCCC isn’t putting money into this race. No chance. This has been chalked up as a lost cause, mainly because it’s plus-nine Republican turf. And while the national headwinds are certainly against the GOP, they’re not that against the GOP. Not here—in a crafted-for-the-Republicans district.

• 5. I’ve written this repeatedly, and if I’m wrong I’ll move to Guam and change my name to Steffi Graf. But while both Lisa Ramirez and Joe Kerr are good people, they don’t have the financial resources to compete. Even if they somehow place in the Top 2 (which I don’t see as a realistic possibility), both Kim and Calvert would stomp them like grapes. It sucks, but this shit takes LOTS of money. Millions of dollars. They don’t have it.

• 6. Esther Kim Varet has the best odds of (a Dem) reaching the general election. Whether that’s because she’s been boosted by duplicitous Republicans or not—it’s true. Hell, I’d argue she’s the only Democrat who can even possibly reach the general. And this leads to a legitimately intriguing/skull-splitting question: Do you support the Democrat you don’t like, who’s being propped by Republicans, who probably is the only member of the party who even has a puncher’s chance—or do you not? I’ve met many Democrats who simply can’t stomach Esther, and would rather vote Lisa or Joe and wind up (in all probability) with Calvert or Young Kim. Which I completely understand. I haven’t been shy in expressing my feelings about Esther as a political candidate (I’m not a big fan). She’s run the … strangest campaign I’ve ever seen. No close second.

• 7. Throughout this race, I’ve oftentimes found myself regretting ever trying to cover it. Politics suck. They’re ugly and gross and sorta sad. They cost so much money—and for what? A two-year position that results in the winner immediately fundraising for the next campaign.

Also, there’s a ton of ego. I’m a Lisa Ramirez admirer—but why not run for city council, or water board, or school board? Also, why was her campaign still holding fundraisers within a week of Election Day? Literally, she had one on May 31. Why? What for? Now is the time for door knocking, phone banking. New dough is—at this juncture—completely useless. There’s no time left to spend it. And asking people to give (past a point when it can be utilized) is kinda odd.

The same general befuddlement goes for Joe Kerr. Lovely dude. Firefighter cred. Best handshake you’ll ever experience. But there are so many smaller gigs that need Democrats.

And Esther—who literally moved from Los Angeles to run for congress. What has this all been for? I know you hate Trump. We all do. But … I dunno. I’ve never fully understood this whole circus.

• 8. Ultimately, you—dear reader—should vote your conscience. If I made one big mistake on this site, it came in a recent post when I urged voting for Esther. Honestly, do you. If you think Esther is the best choice, support her. If you can’t stomach her, don’t. If you’re hoping for a Lisa or Joe miracle, roll with it. Hell, if you’re a Trump-loving conservative, pick Calvert or Young Kim.

There are m-a-n-y Orange County Democrats (quietly) hoping for Calvert and Young Kim to top the primary, have at it and spend like Dennis Rodman at a mid-90s strip club.

Are those impulses wrong? Right? I honestly don’t know.

You’ll hear from me when we know the CA-40 results. But until then—peace.

I need a long-ass nap.