Lisa Ramirez has people power. Instead of giving in and giving up to monied interests, and electing someone who is unqualified for the position, talk to all of your friends, neighbors, family members who live in CA-40 and urge them to vote for Lisa Ramirez, someone who is supremely qualified and has the temperament to represent us for the long haul. Then donate whatever you can to Lisa's campaign.
The safer thing to do is to back the candidate who has union support and name recognition this time around. Lisa can run in 2 years AFTER we flip the seat!
You know how I feel. I'm holding on that the District change puts more power into this than some want to believe exists. I just keep seeing the dems win in areas they either never have or haven't in a very long time, that went to Trump in '24, and keep making the GOP more nervous.
I just voted for Lisa today. Esther took the time off from counting her money to insult my support for Lisa yesterday. We need to get out of this death spiral and VOTE FOR THE BEST CANDIDATE. That is Lisa Ramirez.
A ‘clear and sober look’ that conveniently leaves Joe Kerr out of the analysis?
You called him ‘solid, steady, confident’… and then ignored him.
Clearly he’s never been your personal choice but in your own words Lisa can’t win, and Esther’s campaign is a weird, chaotic tsunami of slop.
That’s not analysis. That’s vibes.
In a top-two race, splitting the Dem vote is how we guarantee two MAGA incumbents in November.
There’s a real path here. Kerr has the broad coalition, momentum, name ID, and support to flip this seat. He also has the legislative experience and personal connections to hit the ground running in Congress.
This whole piece was basically a 2,000 word shrug. You’re doing CA-40 a disservice telling people to give up. That’s how we lose this seat.
There are already IE's hitting the district supporting Kerr.
Support comes in many forms during election season.
Keep in mind. Even Young Kim's poll showed Kerr in a three way tie with YK and Calvert.
Yet will all the resources from EVK and Martinez. They did not break double digits in that poll.
If money were the only factor.
CA would have governors named Checchi, Riordan, Simon, and Whitman. All of them had far more in financial resources. And were defeated by the less funded candidate.
The following is my personal opinion. I do not speak for any of the many organizations I’m affiliated with.
Wholeheartedly agree with this post, especially the last seven lines. It’s the second time this district has had a very qualified Latina candidate who would bring about tremendous change by simply being in the room where decisions are made. The conventional political “wisdom” is that an investment in this race would mean taking money & energy from other, more “winnable” and important races around the county and country. Which isn’t entirely wrong.
Unless we can significantly expand the pie of available $$ or campaign volunteers (a la Mamdani) for grassroots candidates like Lisa, or reform campaign finance, this zero-sum situation will mean some districts, like CD-40, get sacrificed for the “greater good”. I hope the political “wisdom” is wrong on this one, because Lisa really is the best candidate for the district.
PS - From a grassroots perspective, more individual donor money flows to Democrats than Republicans. So maybe there is something (like dark money IEs, media capture, racism) more at play than the total money donated to candidates. https://www.opensecrets.org/elections-overview
Joe Kerr was outspent 10 to 1 and only needed 17k more votes to win in the last election. I was a hard pass on Esther Kim Varet as soon as I read that she keeps her designer jeans in a glass case. As referenced by the lack of attendance, support by a Democratic club does not indicate big voter turnout. There were almost 50k registered democrats who didn't vote in the last election in CA40. Even though this is safe red district now, elections around the country have had huge upsets for Republicans. I think with No Party Preference and non-Maga voters the candidate who is solid, steady, confident, and well-spoken with union support and name recognition is who can win.
Your analysis is right on. I listened to the debate hosted by the Central OC Dems and was utterly stunned by how weak and non-substantive Esther Kim Varet was. No wonder she didn't show up for this recent debate. Ramirez in contrast was sharp, on point, knowledgeable. Kerr was ok. Ramirez 2028??
Financing is always the biggest problem for newcomers and challengers. I've seen lots of promising candidates come and go. What usually happens is they get discouraged after trying to run with not enough money and not enough support and they go away, never to be seen again, which sucks, because many of them were promising.
The money they need is far more than any one of them can raise their first time out. For a congressional race, $500,000 may get you taken seriously, but in Southern California a real shot usually means seven figures, and in a targeted district, several million.
Congressional candidates need DCCC money and union support (unions usually don't give candidates money; they usually campaign independently on the candidate's behalf) and the candidates usually don't find this out until too late. It's almost like you need to get the connections with everyone even before you decide to run. Only *after* you get that can you decide to run.
On the support side, it's very hard to get a set of volunteers for a campaign. You can get some from local Dem clubs and personal friends, but you seriously need 100+. It's worse in a 2 county race. There’s probably some rough ratio where each active volunteer is worth something like $1,000 in campaign contributions, because they provide the personal touch with voters that money has a hard time buying.
The problem with self-funding is that you never end up knowing who really supports you, except yourself. How much support you have from others is a real signal on your chances of winning.
You think voting for Esther is a good idea, and playing for the Indians in 1998 was awful??
Cleveland went to the World Series in 1997 and led their division the entire 1998 season. Yeah, that sounds terrible:
“The Indians hoped to improve upon their American League pennant-winning season of 1997, but succumbed to the New York Yankees in the ALCS in six games. The Indians would lead the American League Central division wire-to-wire in 1998, becoming the first team in franchise history (and as of 2026, the only team in franchise history) to do so.”
“Families are feeling squeezed from every direction,” said Esther Kim Varet. “In this crappy economy, with soaring living costs and an inevitable spike in health care costs on the horizon, people are fed up with political brinksmanship. They want leaders who will focus on solutions, not stunts — and that’s exactly what our campaign represents.”
Please give what you can : LFG !!!!! Esther Esther Kim Varet for Congress
Perhaps she should stop harassing Democrats, the people that she needs to win this race. She is bizarre and paranoid, constantly blocking people she needs to win. I've seen her speak three times and each time she becomes more angry and unhinged.
Because of this post, I just volunteered to canvass for Lisa Ramirez in my neighborhood. Go Lisa!!!!
Lisa Ramirez has people power. Instead of giving in and giving up to monied interests, and electing someone who is unqualified for the position, talk to all of your friends, neighbors, family members who live in CA-40 and urge them to vote for Lisa Ramirez, someone who is supremely qualified and has the temperament to represent us for the long haul. Then donate whatever you can to Lisa's campaign.
The safer thing to do is to back the candidate who has union support and name recognition this time around. Lisa can run in 2 years AFTER we flip the seat!
Your article is 100% on target.
You know how I feel. I'm holding on that the District change puts more power into this than some want to believe exists. I just keep seeing the dems win in areas they either never have or haven't in a very long time, that went to Trump in '24, and keep making the GOP more nervous.
I just voted for Lisa today. Esther took the time off from counting her money to insult my support for Lisa yesterday. We need to get out of this death spiral and VOTE FOR THE BEST CANDIDATE. That is Lisa Ramirez.
A ‘clear and sober look’ that conveniently leaves Joe Kerr out of the analysis?
You called him ‘solid, steady, confident’… and then ignored him.
Clearly he’s never been your personal choice but in your own words Lisa can’t win, and Esther’s campaign is a weird, chaotic tsunami of slop.
That’s not analysis. That’s vibes.
In a top-two race, splitting the Dem vote is how we guarantee two MAGA incumbents in November.
There’s a real path here. Kerr has the broad coalition, momentum, name ID, and support to flip this seat. He also has the legislative experience and personal connections to hit the ground running in Congress.
This whole piece was basically a 2,000 word shrug. You’re doing CA-40 a disservice telling people to give up. That’s how we lose this seat.
Watch Kerr’s recent campaign ad:
https://www.joekerrforcongress.com/
less money than Lisa. By a lot.
There are already IE's hitting the district supporting Kerr.
Support comes in many forms during election season.
Keep in mind. Even Young Kim's poll showed Kerr in a three way tie with YK and Calvert.
Yet will all the resources from EVK and Martinez. They did not break double digits in that poll.
If money were the only factor.
CA would have governors named Checchi, Riordan, Simon, and Whitman. All of them had far more in financial resources. And were defeated by the less funded candidate.
The voice of reason. Thank you for your comment!
$6M for a seat in the House is pretty wild. No wonder Congress is (mostly) so compromised
The following is my personal opinion. I do not speak for any of the many organizations I’m affiliated with.
Wholeheartedly agree with this post, especially the last seven lines. It’s the second time this district has had a very qualified Latina candidate who would bring about tremendous change by simply being in the room where decisions are made. The conventional political “wisdom” is that an investment in this race would mean taking money & energy from other, more “winnable” and important races around the county and country. Which isn’t entirely wrong.
Unless we can significantly expand the pie of available $$ or campaign volunteers (a la Mamdani) for grassroots candidates like Lisa, or reform campaign finance, this zero-sum situation will mean some districts, like CD-40, get sacrificed for the “greater good”. I hope the political “wisdom” is wrong on this one, because Lisa really is the best candidate for the district.
PS - From a grassroots perspective, more individual donor money flows to Democrats than Republicans. So maybe there is something (like dark money IEs, media capture, racism) more at play than the total money donated to candidates. https://www.opensecrets.org/elections-overview
Joe Kerr was outspent 10 to 1 and only needed 17k more votes to win in the last election. I was a hard pass on Esther Kim Varet as soon as I read that she keeps her designer jeans in a glass case. As referenced by the lack of attendance, support by a Democratic club does not indicate big voter turnout. There were almost 50k registered democrats who didn't vote in the last election in CA40. Even though this is safe red district now, elections around the country have had huge upsets for Republicans. I think with No Party Preference and non-Maga voters the candidate who is solid, steady, confident, and well-spoken with union support and name recognition is who can win.
I agree Lisa is the best candidate. Just hoping for a miracle.
No to Kim and yes to Kerr.
Your analysis is right on. I listened to the debate hosted by the Central OC Dems and was utterly stunned by how weak and non-substantive Esther Kim Varet was. No wonder she didn't show up for this recent debate. Ramirez in contrast was sharp, on point, knowledgeable. Kerr was ok. Ramirez 2028??
Financing is always the biggest problem for newcomers and challengers. I've seen lots of promising candidates come and go. What usually happens is they get discouraged after trying to run with not enough money and not enough support and they go away, never to be seen again, which sucks, because many of them were promising.
The money they need is far more than any one of them can raise their first time out. For a congressional race, $500,000 may get you taken seriously, but in Southern California a real shot usually means seven figures, and in a targeted district, several million.
Congressional candidates need DCCC money and union support (unions usually don't give candidates money; they usually campaign independently on the candidate's behalf) and the candidates usually don't find this out until too late. It's almost like you need to get the connections with everyone even before you decide to run. Only *after* you get that can you decide to run.
On the support side, it's very hard to get a set of volunteers for a campaign. You can get some from local Dem clubs and personal friends, but you seriously need 100+. It's worse in a 2 county race. There’s probably some rough ratio where each active volunteer is worth something like $1,000 in campaign contributions, because they provide the personal touch with voters that money has a hard time buying.
The problem with self-funding is that you never end up knowing who really supports you, except yourself. How much support you have from others is a real signal on your chances of winning.
You think voting for Esther is a good idea, and playing for the Indians in 1998 was awful??
Cleveland went to the World Series in 1997 and led their division the entire 1998 season. Yeah, that sounds terrible:
“The Indians hoped to improve upon their American League pennant-winning season of 1997, but succumbed to the New York Yankees in the ALCS in six games. The Indians would lead the American League Central division wire-to-wire in 1998, becoming the first team in franchise history (and as of 2026, the only team in franchise history) to do so.”
Thanks for the analysis. Glad I reside in CA-49!
LFG !!! We have a D that can WIN !!!
“Families are feeling squeezed from every direction,” said Esther Kim Varet. “In this crappy economy, with soaring living costs and an inevitable spike in health care costs on the horizon, people are fed up with political brinksmanship. They want leaders who will focus on solutions, not stunts — and that’s exactly what our campaign represents.”
Please give what you can : LFG !!!!! Esther Esther Kim Varet for Congress
VOTE FOR ESTHER KIM VARET !!! ✅
Easy Peasy
https://www.estherkimvaret.com/
Nope!
Perhaps she should stop harassing Democrats, the people that she needs to win this race. She is bizarre and paranoid, constantly blocking people she needs to win. I've seen her speak three times and each time she becomes more angry and unhinged.
Hell no. I rather NOT vote than vote for Esther