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Elel's avatar

I gleaned a couple things about Istvan from this interview. I have nothing complimentary to say about any of those things. I will leave it at that and wish him the best.

Werner Glinka's avatar

Istvan is right that nobody wants to talk about AI displacement, and I respect him for putting himself out there on it. But I part ways with him on UBI as the answer.

He actually says it himself in this interview: with a basic income "you'll have food and security and hopefully housing, but the American dream is lost." That's not a solution — that's managed decline. And managed decline is exactly what I watched happen in the industrial region where I grew up.

I was born in Gelsenkirchen, in Germany's Ruhr Valley — the steel and coal heartland that lost its economic base starting in the 1960s. Germany threw everything at it: retraining programs, public investment, new industries, subsidies. Sixty years later, Gelsenkirchen still has the highest poverty rate in Germany. The jobs that replaced steel and coal paid less, arrived late, and never reached the scale needed. The region survived, but it never recovered.

UBI has the same structural problem. Istvan himself asks: "Can we create an environment where we have enough funding and enough income based on those multi-trillion dollar companies? Will they pay us enough money? Is there enough money out there? Can we make abundance for everyone?" Those aren't rhetorical questions. He doesn't have the answers, and neither does anyone else — because the companies capturing the gains from automation have every incentive, and increasingly the political power, to resist the taxation levels required.

The displacement AI is bringing is real and I agree the timeline is short. But a monthly check doesn't solve a power problem. It just makes the dependency official.

I wrote about this in more detail here: https://open.substack.com/pub/wernerglinka/p/ive-seen-this-before

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