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Laura L's avatar

I gleaned a couple things about Istvan from this interview. I have nothing complimentary to say about any of those things. I will leave it at that and wish him the best.

William Fisher's avatar

As someone who's involved in the robot business and is working on robot AI, among other things, I take issue with his apocalyptic concerns for the near term. He says "robots are going to be tied in with these AI systems, those robots are going to be able to do plumbing jobs, going to be able to do construction jobs, not just white collar jobs."

I am confident that robots will not, in any meaningful way, start fixing pipes or hanging drywall any time in the next 5-10 years. The state-of-the-art robot we built just a couple of years ago would snap in two if it tried to loosen a rusted pipe or install a water heater. The arms and hands simply aren't strong enough to do that sort of work. We broke our hands picking up water bottles the wrong way. Trying to apply 100 pounds of pressure to a pipe wrench while lying upside down under a sink would not be practical, and I see no current technology with that level of power. All of the glamorous dancing robots couldn't pick up a toilet if they tried.

Furthermore, I do not see how AI will displace all software developers. There's a facile illusion of efficiency and effectiveness that's created by "vibe coding," which leads people to think that AI code is just as good, effective, secure, and maintainable as code written by experienced humans, but it's not, and we're quite a ways away from AI just taking over and doing my entire job as a senior software developer. It helps me, but the tech we have today cannot possibly replace me. Maybe in 5-10 years, but certainly not today.

Just my two cents....

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