And in this world where up is now down, kudos to the OC Register for coverage and the interactive map. I would never have imagined the day that the Register had better local coverage than the formerly great LA Times--but here we are. This new 40th District is a shame. I am almost without hope for the midterms. And there goes the democracy. If we are going to live in a dictatorship, why can't it be competent--building infrastructure as China does? No. We have incompetence and cruelty. Jeff, one exception I would make to your observation that "When there is a decision to make, he always chooses cruelty and gluttony," is that you forgot greed. Greed is a primary driver for the guy. Off to my garden to shake this mood.
Thanks for the update. I’ll still be working hard to flip this seat because we have down ballot awful city council and school boards that need flipping. Let’s keep fighting!! The first timers should pivot down ballot and everyone focus on Joe Kerr’s 2nd attempt. Keep the momentum going! He gained a lot of ground without support last time, so it could happen again. Let’s do this!
Same way he closed the gap to within 5 percentage points last time - with get out the vote volunteers like me! And hopefully he'll get some help since redistricting will make some close races safer and they won't need support from national organizations.
While I hope California’s threat to gerrymander the state gets Texas to abandon their plans, my bigger fear is that they won’t back down and a redistricting war spreads across the country. In that war, blue loses.
Dems still need to get people to vote! Some of these republicans certainly have buyer’s remorse! Let’s flip them! Somehow we must appeal to them for the sake of democracy.
Same. I understand every proposed change. It's hard that the sliver of the City I live in was left to the wolves of the GOP. My Supervisor is a Republican. My State Assemblymember is a Republican. My State Senator (in a lean D district) is a Republican. My member of Congress will ALWAYS be a Republican.
Who can I call to help create open space?
Who is going bring earmarks back for infrastructure, veterans services, First Gen college students who attend community college in the 40th?
I 100% understand why this is happening. I guess it's my fault for convincing my wife that we should buy a house in beautiful part of a GOP District, because I knew that in 5-10 years, Democrats would continue to work and make the district lean D or eventually +D.
Thanks, Trump. Thanks, Texas MAGA.
Btw, I'm Black/Japanese. Gerrymandering has been and always will be a terrible thing. Look up the history of the effects on Gerrymandering to those communities. Or just listen to Jasmine Crockett.
But Gov. Newsom pushed the Doomsday Button. And it's not far enough. And every Democratic majority state needs to do the same to force MAGA to back down or ensure a Democratic sweep in 2026 and 2028 to undo all the damage done and pack the Supreme Court to reset basic freedoms.
I don't believe that then when they go low, we go lower. Because I believe in the moral highground, personal dignity and to paraphrase Rob Roy, Honor, a gift a person can only give themselves.
But the actions of MAGA and Texas have left Gov. Newsom few options. So here we are.
It looks like the realignment of the 40th has moved into territory that Gagnier knows well. She has been fighting in the MAGA Mordor of Chino for a long time. Let’s not cede anything yet. Let’s not cede anything ever!
Democrats and especially democratic candidates are wrapped up too much on red and blue maps. They have to understand that everyone in a red map was screwed by the republicans more than the blue spots. Democrats have to learn how to take the battle to them. Biden has an economy that was the envy of the world (Economist)! But Trump said, every day for 4 years, that it was the worse economy and voters listened. Can Democrats learn? 3 points Dems should repeat every day in all RED districts, Corporations are pocketing voters’ hard earned $ with these tariff FEES, we’ve given up the defense and economic race with Communist China when we slashed our science programs from our universities and we’re the most vulnerable this country has ever been since we’ve fired our National Security team which included Gen Tim Haugh. Trump taught them how to campaign, democrats have to learn.
There are many low propensity voters (voters who are more disengaged and don't follow politics religiously like us) who voted for him becasue they thought he would bring down the price of eggs. January 6th was in the rear-view and many of these people don't really follow what is going on unless it directly impacts them.
I also think that many of these people viewed Biden as weak because he was truly becoming frail. When Kamala entered the race, her brand was attached to his, and she didn't have time nor the inclination to distinguish herself from him. It wasn't a great combo.
In any case, I think a lot of these people can be won over. The ICE raids really are not that popular., Even if voters support border security, they do not support roving bands of former Proud Boys in masks snatching people off the streets. Plus, the tariffs, deportations, and cooking the economic numbers will eventually take a toll and the economy will get bad enough that voters will have to take note.
Can we start a “flip “ movement? The message to our neighbors who want a government that works and won’t just give away money and power recklessly, but be a part of the patriotic revolution behind the new democratic system and new, younger leaders?
Can we wait till the new maps are finalized? Let's wait for the SOS Report of Registration before we claim the 40th is a lost cause.
There have been numerous special elections since Nov., 2024.
Dems have outperformed that election by an average of 16%. Knocking off numerous MAGA GOP candidates. In some districts that were considered unwinnable for Dem candidates.
YK is vulnerable. And is running scared.
That much is obvious by her SoMe feeds. She is out meeting with the leadership of every special interest group imaginable. Without holding a townhall.
Agreed. Whoever stays in still needs to vigorously contest. There are so many red areas of the country where democrats have not even tried in the last 20 years. That is truly a huge problem. They may lose for however long, but you can't cede ground completely and just say "this is forever lost."
Republicans NEVER do that and that is won reason why they have won both the culture wars and elections in the last 10 years. They had a long-term strategy to chip away at the edges and to push the bounds of legality until the found a mob boss to lead them that made no pretenses about legality or boundaries.
Chip away at every level. Offer an alternative everywhere. Offer a message that resonates locally (some places will be more progressive, some more centrist--don't do purity tests). That is the only way to win long term.
Let's work on the redistricting effort first and then worry about the 40th. In the special elections in Florida back in April, Republicans districts where Trump won by 40 appoints only won by 15. Every seat needs to be vigorously contested no matter what. The DCCC might choose to pull back money or whatever. Fine. Still vigorously contest the seat with whoever turns out to the the candidate. Stop ceding ground without a fight, even if the candidate is the underdog. The only way to win or eventually win is to offer an alternative.
And in this world where up is now down, kudos to the OC Register for coverage and the interactive map. I would never have imagined the day that the Register had better local coverage than the formerly great LA Times--but here we are. This new 40th District is a shame. I am almost without hope for the midterms. And there goes the democracy. If we are going to live in a dictatorship, why can't it be competent--building infrastructure as China does? No. We have incompetence and cruelty. Jeff, one exception I would make to your observation that "When there is a decision to make, he always chooses cruelty and gluttony," is that you forgot greed. Greed is a primary driver for the guy. Off to my garden to shake this mood.
Thanks for this devastating analysis. It looks like a sports writer can do justice to the political game.
The good news is that it puts Kim in the same district with the awful Ken Calvert. One of them has to lose!
Thanks for the update. I’ll still be working hard to flip this seat because we have down ballot awful city council and school boards that need flipping. Let’s keep fighting!! The first timers should pivot down ballot and everyone focus on Joe Kerr’s 2nd attempt. Keep the momentum going! He gained a lot of ground without support last time, so it could happen again. Let’s do this!
He’s broke, how is he going to keep going?
Same way he closed the gap to within 5 percentage points last time - with get out the vote volunteers like me! And hopefully he'll get some help since redistricting will make some close races safer and they won't need support from national organizations.
While I hope California’s threat to gerrymander the state gets Texas to abandon their plans, my bigger fear is that they won’t back down and a redistricting war spreads across the country. In that war, blue loses.
Dems still need to get people to vote! Some of these republicans certainly have buyer’s remorse! Let’s flip them! Somehow we must appeal to them for the sake of democracy.
Same. I understand every proposed change. It's hard that the sliver of the City I live in was left to the wolves of the GOP. My Supervisor is a Republican. My State Assemblymember is a Republican. My State Senator (in a lean D district) is a Republican. My member of Congress will ALWAYS be a Republican.
Who can I call to help create open space?
Who is going bring earmarks back for infrastructure, veterans services, First Gen college students who attend community college in the 40th?
I 100% understand why this is happening. I guess it's my fault for convincing my wife that we should buy a house in beautiful part of a GOP District, because I knew that in 5-10 years, Democrats would continue to work and make the district lean D or eventually +D.
Thanks, Trump. Thanks, Texas MAGA.
Btw, I'm Black/Japanese. Gerrymandering has been and always will be a terrible thing. Look up the history of the effects on Gerrymandering to those communities. Or just listen to Jasmine Crockett.
But Gov. Newsom pushed the Doomsday Button. And it's not far enough. And every Democratic majority state needs to do the same to force MAGA to back down or ensure a Democratic sweep in 2026 and 2028 to undo all the damage done and pack the Supreme Court to reset basic freedoms.
I don't believe that then when they go low, we go lower. Because I believe in the moral highground, personal dignity and to paraphrase Rob Roy, Honor, a gift a person can only give themselves.
But the actions of MAGA and Texas have left Gov. Newsom few options. So here we are.
It looks like the realignment of the 40th has moved into territory that Gagnier knows well. She has been fighting in the MAGA Mordor of Chino for a long time. Let’s not cede anything yet. Let’s not cede anything ever!
Democrats and especially democratic candidates are wrapped up too much on red and blue maps. They have to understand that everyone in a red map was screwed by the republicans more than the blue spots. Democrats have to learn how to take the battle to them. Biden has an economy that was the envy of the world (Economist)! But Trump said, every day for 4 years, that it was the worse economy and voters listened. Can Democrats learn? 3 points Dems should repeat every day in all RED districts, Corporations are pocketing voters’ hard earned $ with these tariff FEES, we’ve given up the defense and economic race with Communist China when we slashed our science programs from our universities and we’re the most vulnerable this country has ever been since we’ve fired our National Security team which included Gen Tim Haugh. Trump taught them how to campaign, democrats have to learn.
I'd like to know more about the voting habits and demographics of the 27% Other/NPP. That's the group we need to focus on.
Exactly!!! And understanding there are a lot of folks that are falling off team Trump.
There are many low propensity voters (voters who are more disengaged and don't follow politics religiously like us) who voted for him becasue they thought he would bring down the price of eggs. January 6th was in the rear-view and many of these people don't really follow what is going on unless it directly impacts them.
I also think that many of these people viewed Biden as weak because he was truly becoming frail. When Kamala entered the race, her brand was attached to his, and she didn't have time nor the inclination to distinguish herself from him. It wasn't a great combo.
In any case, I think a lot of these people can be won over. The ICE raids really are not that popular., Even if voters support border security, they do not support roving bands of former Proud Boys in masks snatching people off the streets. Plus, the tariffs, deportations, and cooking the economic numbers will eventually take a toll and the economy will get bad enough that voters will have to take note.
Can we start a “flip “ movement? The message to our neighbors who want a government that works and won’t just give away money and power recklessly, but be a part of the patriotic revolution behind the new democratic system and new, younger leaders?
Can we wait till the new maps are finalized? Let's wait for the SOS Report of Registration before we claim the 40th is a lost cause.
There have been numerous special elections since Nov., 2024.
Dems have outperformed that election by an average of 16%. Knocking off numerous MAGA GOP candidates. In some districts that were considered unwinnable for Dem candidates.
YK is vulnerable. And is running scared.
That much is obvious by her SoMe feeds. She is out meeting with the leadership of every special interest group imaginable. Without holding a townhall.
Agreed. Whoever stays in still needs to vigorously contest. There are so many red areas of the country where democrats have not even tried in the last 20 years. That is truly a huge problem. They may lose for however long, but you can't cede ground completely and just say "this is forever lost."
Republicans NEVER do that and that is won reason why they have won both the culture wars and elections in the last 10 years. They had a long-term strategy to chip away at the edges and to push the bounds of legality until the found a mob boss to lead them that made no pretenses about legality or boundaries.
Chip away at every level. Offer an alternative everywhere. Offer a message that resonates locally (some places will be more progressive, some more centrist--don't do purity tests). That is the only way to win long term.
I moved here from TX 😳 15 years ago- Blessing !!!💯I love California🌴🌊
Let's work on the redistricting effort first and then worry about the 40th. In the special elections in Florida back in April, Republicans districts where Trump won by 40 appoints only won by 15. Every seat needs to be vigorously contested no matter what. The DCCC might choose to pull back money or whatever. Fine. Still vigorously contest the seat with whoever turns out to the the candidate. Stop ceding ground without a fight, even if the candidate is the underdog. The only way to win or eventually win is to offer an alternative.
It still has to pass. And it’s not polling that it will.
You seem to be able to read my mind...