Here is why. Most of the time voters elect someone that is a reflection of them.
Kerr is a working class individual that has proven he can get moderate R's to vote for him. His labor creds are all anyone needs to read to see that point.
This is very important in a district that has both a working class base. And is significantly more Hispanic than the previous district.
Last Tuesday's election has shown there are cracks in the base of support for the president's policies as it relates to immigration. And the primary focus on one group being targeted. A group that makes up a significant portion of the electorate in that district.
Any GOP representing a district with less than a 10% advantage is vulnerable in my opinion.
A Dem that is working class and has shown a willingness to fight for the rights of others has a chance.
Kim has money. So what? The annals of well heeled candidates is littered with losers.
If money was all that mattered. CA would have had governors named Cecchi, Simon, Riordan, and Whitman.
What matters is who can connect with voters in a working class district.
That candidate is Kerr.
He has name ID in most of the district. Having been established in the 2024 election cycle.
He is not paying for the same real estate twice. Which the other candidates will have to do.
Jeff, one thing to note about Kerr’s last effort, the Dem National Committee put no effort (or money) into CA-40. I believe there should not be a seat in the country where a GOP candidate goes uncontested in 2026 because of lack of attention (money). No matter who the Dem candidate is, it will take money. My hope is that Kim and Calvert eat each other alive during the primary (i.e., who can kiss Trump’s ass best), making whoever wins that even a better target. If both Kim and Calvert each gets 33%, then in the open primary all the Dem would need is 34%. Then, with some momentum, maybe the money would come. Do I mention money often enough???
Jeff, I think Joe Kerr would appeal to many in the old CD40.
And other commenters have given astute reasons why Joe might win against Calvert and Kim. Perhaps Ramirez has a chance, but I would not dismiss Kerr. He is definitely a contender.
As someone who knocked on hundreds of doors (900 for prop 50) for both Asif Mahmood and Joe Kerr, I believe Joe would’ve won if his 2024 race wasn’t written off as a lost cause. He won the primary and narrowed the gap significantly against YK without grassroots and Democratic Party support(other than endorsements) He got Republican and No Party Preference votes. Firefighters appeal to all parties and wildfire prevention and insurance is a big concern in our district with the old maps and the new ones. He has name recognition and momentum. If the safe districts share their resources with this so-called “sacrificial” district we can be rid of 2 MAGA Congressmembers. I can’t see an immigration attorney getting any Republican votes and we will be bombarded with ads against “illegals” She’s a great candidate, but I think Joe is the best chance and the best fit to meet the needs of CA40.
You may already know this Jeff, but Christina Gagnier has suspended her campaign. She was by far my top pick. I agree with you that Lisa Ramirez could be an up-and-comer. Lots of time for crazy times ahead.
Here is why. Most of the time voters elect someone that is a reflection of them.
Kerr is a working class individual that has proven he can get moderate R's to vote for him. His labor creds are all anyone needs to read to see that point.
This is very important in a district that has both a working class base. And is significantly more Hispanic than the previous district.
Last Tuesday's election has shown there are cracks in the base of support for the president's policies as it relates to immigration. And the primary focus on one group being targeted. A group that makes up a significant portion of the electorate in that district.
Any GOP representing a district with less than a 10% advantage is vulnerable in my opinion.
A Dem that is working class and has shown a willingness to fight for the rights of others has a chance.
Kim has money. So what? The annals of well heeled candidates is littered with losers.
If money was all that mattered. CA would have had governors named Cecchi, Simon, Riordan, and Whitman.
What matters is who can connect with voters in a working class district.
That candidate is Kerr.
He has name ID in most of the district. Having been established in the 2024 election cycle.
He is not paying for the same real estate twice. Which the other candidates will have to do.
Totally agree. I wish we could focus our resources on one candidate - this one!
Focus resources on Joe. Yes.
Jeff, one thing to note about Kerr’s last effort, the Dem National Committee put no effort (or money) into CA-40. I believe there should not be a seat in the country where a GOP candidate goes uncontested in 2026 because of lack of attention (money). No matter who the Dem candidate is, it will take money. My hope is that Kim and Calvert eat each other alive during the primary (i.e., who can kiss Trump’s ass best), making whoever wins that even a better target. If both Kim and Calvert each gets 33%, then in the open primary all the Dem would need is 34%. Then, with some momentum, maybe the money would come. Do I mention money often enough???
Jeff, I think Joe Kerr would appeal to many in the old CD40.
And other commenters have given astute reasons why Joe might win against Calvert and Kim. Perhaps Ramirez has a chance, but I would not dismiss Kerr. He is definitely a contender.
As someone who knocked on hundreds of doors (900 for prop 50) for both Asif Mahmood and Joe Kerr, I believe Joe would’ve won if his 2024 race wasn’t written off as a lost cause. He won the primary and narrowed the gap significantly against YK without grassroots and Democratic Party support(other than endorsements) He got Republican and No Party Preference votes. Firefighters appeal to all parties and wildfire prevention and insurance is a big concern in our district with the old maps and the new ones. He has name recognition and momentum. If the safe districts share their resources with this so-called “sacrificial” district we can be rid of 2 MAGA Congressmembers. I can’t see an immigration attorney getting any Republican votes and we will be bombarded with ads against “illegals” She’s a great candidate, but I think Joe is the best chance and the best fit to meet the needs of CA40.
You may already know this Jeff, but Christina Gagnier has suspended her campaign. She was by far my top pick. I agree with you that Lisa Ramirez could be an up-and-comer. Lots of time for crazy times ahead.
It really seems like consultants are encouraging candidates to stay in races because they can raise enough money to get paid, but not enough to win.
Varet won't win. Heck, most Dems in that district don't even like her.
The leading Democrat, Esther Kim Varet, has millions of dollars at her disposal.
Who cares. A rich, empty suit of a carpetbagger.
Another leading Democrat, Lisa Ramirez, is at the forefront of the illegal immigration movement.
Which turns off independents and moderates. Got Trump elected twice.
I'm with Joe.