I think one of the things you could have done is talked to the candidates teams and volunteers, as well as getting out of OC. The big thing you missed (and I hate to say I told you so) is how heavily Lisa's campaign was concentrated inland, and how she was leveraging cross-canvassing with other candidates. In additon, and I cannot stress this enough as someone who does market research for a living, one point in time poll is not destiny. You need multiple polls across multiple points in time to get a somewhat accurate directional picture of the electorate. Even then, political polling nowadays suffers from issues that make it hard to to be as precise as we want it to be.
Lisa ultimately suffered from entering the race late, too many people in the race, and yes, a fundraising deficit, but she really did have a shot.
I witnessed two schools of thought among my Dem CA40 friends in this election: Vote for Young Kim, since she is more moderate than Ken Calvert, or vote for Ken Calvert, since he’s such a MAGA extremist he might be easier to beat in ‘28. Esther Kim Varet is posting like crazy on her FB page that any Dem CA40 hopefuls should not run because she obviously has the biggest war chest, and that trumps her other profound deficits. Aside from her call for others to step aside being alarmingly undemocratic, this election taught us that war chests don’t win elections (just ask Elon Musk). I’m not convinced any Dem can win CA40 at this point, but 2028 might bring new surprises and new possibilities. I look forward to a robust primary with good quality Dem candidates. And then it’s up to all of us to get to know them and make informed choices. BTW, the Democratic Party of OC (DPOC) endorses primary candidates. How does that happen? People like you and me sign up to become delegates. Jeff, I hope you write a column one of these days explaining to people how our county party runs, and the importance of everyone reading this to find out what the DPOC Central Committee does, and why each of us should consider running for the Central Committee in 2028. Serving on Central Committee isn’t a heavy lift re free time — mostly you attend infrequent zoom meetings — but it’s an opportunity to steer our county Dem party in the right direction. Maybe even in a direction that sees us winning CA40.
I agree that we as voters need to understand how DPOC works and how people can get involved. Thanks, Ronna, for that excellent suggestion.
Another really important role that individuals can consider is ADEM delegate. ADEM stands for “Assembly District Election Meeting.” Elections for ADEM delegates are held by the California Democratic Party after each election year - so every two years. The next ADEM election is coming right up, for people to represent their Assembly District as part of the state Democratic Party. ADEM delegate elections are run by the CDP, and registered Democrats as of the last election (i.e Nov 3, 2026) vote for delegates for their Assembly Districts. Watch for it!
That is pretty much all I know about ADEM, but we all should learn more IMO. It is at the local, grassroots level that we created this year’s Blue Tsunami. It is at the local and state level that we can make the biggest positive changes.
Thank you. Yes! If I recall correctly, Lisa Ramirez got more ADEM delegate votes than Esther Kim Varet (these are the grassroots volunteers who really get to know the candidates) but not a clear-enough majority to win party endorsement. I was an ADEM delegate, but not for CA40. I spoke to CA40 ADEM delegates. The ones I spoke to who voted for Esther said her war chest was the compelling factor for them, even though they thought Lisa’s values and ethics were more in line with their own, her message was clearer and more informed, and her experience as an advocate for immigrants clearly important.
I think your handwringing is overwrought. I don’t believe we blew it. The overall effect is what we wanted - a Dem majority in the house - even bigger than thought.
Hindsight is 20/20. There’s no way anyone could have anticipated this blue-dbath for the right. I will gladly take Ken Calvert over Esther Kim Varet…may she rot in hell for sucking votes from Lisa Ramirez who would have been an outstanding representative for this district.
It’s interesting to observe other congressional districts around the country where a number of R+10 or greater districts did flip. That makes it seem that http://perhaps.ca40 could’ve flipped as well. Appreciate Jeff’s reflection on the topic.
You did a terrific job bringing the candidates into focus. It was our responsibility to vote the right one into office. Please continue to keep us informed.
People downplayed Perry because of his youth, but he had the most community and political accomplishments of any candidate in the race. They stopped at his age and didn’t look closer. I look forward to watching his next moves. Time is on his side.
I think one of the things you could have done is talked to the candidates teams and volunteers, as well as getting out of OC. The big thing you missed (and I hate to say I told you so) is how heavily Lisa's campaign was concentrated inland, and how she was leveraging cross-canvassing with other candidates. In additon, and I cannot stress this enough as someone who does market research for a living, one point in time poll is not destiny. You need multiple polls across multiple points in time to get a somewhat accurate directional picture of the electorate. Even then, political polling nowadays suffers from issues that make it hard to to be as precise as we want it to be.
Lisa ultimately suffered from entering the race late, too many people in the race, and yes, a fundraising deficit, but she really did have a shot.
I witnessed two schools of thought among my Dem CA40 friends in this election: Vote for Young Kim, since she is more moderate than Ken Calvert, or vote for Ken Calvert, since he’s such a MAGA extremist he might be easier to beat in ‘28. Esther Kim Varet is posting like crazy on her FB page that any Dem CA40 hopefuls should not run because she obviously has the biggest war chest, and that trumps her other profound deficits. Aside from her call for others to step aside being alarmingly undemocratic, this election taught us that war chests don’t win elections (just ask Elon Musk). I’m not convinced any Dem can win CA40 at this point, but 2028 might bring new surprises and new possibilities. I look forward to a robust primary with good quality Dem candidates. And then it’s up to all of us to get to know them and make informed choices. BTW, the Democratic Party of OC (DPOC) endorses primary candidates. How does that happen? People like you and me sign up to become delegates. Jeff, I hope you write a column one of these days explaining to people how our county party runs, and the importance of everyone reading this to find out what the DPOC Central Committee does, and why each of us should consider running for the Central Committee in 2028. Serving on Central Committee isn’t a heavy lift re free time — mostly you attend infrequent zoom meetings — but it’s an opportunity to steer our county Dem party in the right direction. Maybe even in a direction that sees us winning CA40.
I agree that we as voters need to understand how DPOC works and how people can get involved. Thanks, Ronna, for that excellent suggestion.
Another really important role that individuals can consider is ADEM delegate. ADEM stands for “Assembly District Election Meeting.” Elections for ADEM delegates are held by the California Democratic Party after each election year - so every two years. The next ADEM election is coming right up, for people to represent their Assembly District as part of the state Democratic Party. ADEM delegate elections are run by the CDP, and registered Democrats as of the last election (i.e Nov 3, 2026) vote for delegates for their Assembly Districts. Watch for it!
That is pretty much all I know about ADEM, but we all should learn more IMO. It is at the local, grassroots level that we created this year’s Blue Tsunami. It is at the local and state level that we can make the biggest positive changes.
Thank you. Yes! If I recall correctly, Lisa Ramirez got more ADEM delegate votes than Esther Kim Varet (these are the grassroots volunteers who really get to know the candidates) but not a clear-enough majority to win party endorsement. I was an ADEM delegate, but not for CA40. I spoke to CA40 ADEM delegates. The ones I spoke to who voted for Esther said her war chest was the compelling factor for them, even though they thought Lisa’s values and ethics were more in line with their own, her message was clearer and more informed, and her experience as an advocate for immigrants clearly important.
I do think Lisa Ramirez could have won in the general. Hopefully we see her back in two years or in another solid role!
We like Ramirez down here in Riverside County.
I think your handwringing is overwrought. I don’t believe we blew it. The overall effect is what we wanted - a Dem majority in the house - even bigger than thought.
Remember that we did run Democrats in the primary in those races.
Hindsight is 20/20. There’s no way anyone could have anticipated this blue-dbath for the right. I will gladly take Ken Calvert over Esther Kim Varet…may she rot in hell for sucking votes from Lisa Ramirez who would have been an outstanding representative for this district.
Don’t beat yourself up. None of us are clairvoyant.
It’s interesting to observe other congressional districts around the country where a number of R+10 or greater districts did flip. That makes it seem that http://perhaps.ca40 could’ve flipped as well. Appreciate Jeff’s reflection on the topic.
You did a terrific job bringing the candidates into focus. It was our responsibility to vote the right one into office. Please continue to keep us informed.
You realize that just putting this out there is opening you up to the inane EKV "I TOLD YOU SO," so get ready :)
Meade was in a new district when Prop 50 passed. Either that or he moved into another one. He couldn't run in Dist 70 at that point.
People downplayed Perry because of his youth, but he had the most community and political accomplishments of any candidate in the race. They stopped at his age and didn’t look closer. I look forward to watching his next moves. Time is on his side.