No mention of policy or plans (unless you are willing to look it up yourself and I am not), just a silly motivational speech to vote for her. Nah, pass.
OK. According to Esther, we should vote for her because, according to polling, she's the "only viable candidate." Not much in there about her experience, her governing philosophy, her credentials, or how she's going to help the people of the 40th if elected. What I'm getting is that she "believes she has what it takes" because she believes she's the only candidate with enough money to get elected. I'm unmoved.
Jim, totally agree. The message of vote for me otherwise Dems are going to get shutout, may be practical, but it is really leaving a sour taste in my mouth.
Just checking where is the 30% undecided coming from. I was looking at that May 6th Tulchin poll, approximately 32% considering Democrat only, and approximately 23% considering all voters. Not challenging you, just asking.
Agreed. This was her chance to tell us why to vote for her, besides giving us the numbers. She could have done both. I can click the link and research. But she was given this platform and wasted it. Any candidate for public office would welcome this opportunity to speak to the voters, not at them.
If you guys looked at her website you would see her policies and what she stands for. It’s just basic research. Also, these substack articles only have a limited number of content characters.
Would you prefer a Trump supporting MAGA representative or someone who aligns with some or most of your values?
Seems like you would rather just complain then actually do something that would help move things into a better state. CA40 can be flipped and we can get two MAGA republicans out of office with one swipe. No other Democrat has the ability to do that, that’s politics at this moment. Do you want to complain or win?
Thanks for your response. Jeff's article indicated that she was offering an alternative to Ramirez or responding to Ramirez's op-ed. I know that her positions are on her website, but I was responding to what she wrote in this particular article. And of course I would NOT prefer a Trump-supporting MAGA, but begging your pardon, that's a false choice. My comment had to do with the fact that she had an opportunity to present her case in Jeff's post and she chose to use it to talk about her polling. If that is the only thing I read from or about her I'd think it was pretty lacking.
The primary is in a few weeks, we have to focus on viability, it’s a jungle primary… if she doesn’t show her viability then 2 MAGAs face off and we lose the district. I could understand your point if we had a few months, but she’s got to focus on showing people she has the support and resources to win.
I don't disagree. I just think she missed an opportunity to give people a reason to vote for her other than her polling (which, I suspect to many), isn't reason enough. I get the realpolitik of the moment; can't disagree there either. Again, just commenting on her piece. I think the average voter is still looking for something other than "I'm the only one who can win". One man's opinion. Good convo. Thanks.
I think it just comes down to what messaging needs to be put out to get a Dem into the general. So many other candidates have no real shot and it gets frustrating to see people not understand where we are today. We have to play this game to change it.
Stacey, thanks. I've seen her ads and read her materials. I was just commenting on the piece in Jeff's post. She didn't bring up any of her positions, credentials, or experience in that piece. It was just, "I'm the only one that can win." She may be right, but she didn't give anyone another other reason to vote for her in Jeff's post. That's all I'm saying. I have no ax to grind with her. I just think it would have served her better to say, "here's what I stand for, here's what I'll strive to do, and by the way, I'm the only one that can win." One man's point of view.
Yes, perhaps. But I think it just would have made her post waaaay too long if she also included all of those policy stances. But perhaps she could have worded things differently too.
I am a life long democrat who would not vote for any candidate who has such a sense of entitlement, a condescending attitude towards the voters who don't appear to appreciate her talents.
Well, given the fact that Esther Kim Varet took all morning to attack me on Instagram today, it's a HARD NO from me. She is childish and chose to argue with me, a random lady from Mission Viejo, for two hours instead of focusing on the issues that impact us in this district. She was completely fine insulting me and telling me I didn't know anything about this district because "30 years ago it was farmland" (I distinctly remember attending Mission Viejo High School 30 years ago, which had an FFA, but was not surrounded by farmland. But, I digress).
Here are some facts to keep in mind. Her poll only conveniently omits "undecideds" when she presents it. About 30% of the district is undecided at this point. Polling in this era is also notoriously difficult, given that most people no longer answer phones and many will not respond to poll texts or social media posts. Those who do are more likely to live in the district's most affluent areas and be on social media, etc. This was the problem with polling in 2024, which predicted Harris's win in places like Iowa. There is no unified way to reach voters anymore, especially in rural areas. People in the eastern part of the district are simply harder to reach.
She also ignores the demographics of this area, which saw a record turnout of the Latino vote for Prop 50. I certainly don't think the Latino vote is monolithic. We know that male Latinos increased their vote share for Republicans in 2024, but as we have seen in special election after special election in 2025, that 2024 advantage has been crumbling. Lisa certainly has the advantage here, with her work as an immigration attorney and as a champion for all immigrant communities.
Lastly, many of us are sick and tired of being told that the person with the most money should be nominated because...money. Naw. No. NOPE. Screw that noise forever and always. Not when you attack voters whom you say you respect, but have no trouble insulting. We will only get out of this true death spiral when we say, "enough is enough" and vote our consciences.
Now her supporters will attack me and say I am "Jill Steining" my vote. I am not. Lisa is a Democratic Party candidate. She is a lawyer who has lived in OC for more than 20 years. She is an immigration attorney who has stood up to ICE and DHS and won. She has my vote, even if we wake up tomorrow and EKV says she is spending a billion dollars.
In a democracy, voters are sovereign, and they have the final say. EVK is not entitled to anyone's vote. She will not get mine.
But Lisa also doesn’t have the resources or name recognition to beat Kim or Calvert. That’s just facts based on her FEC fillings (also she’s self funded, doesn’t live in the district, and just recently re-registered as a Dem, but I digress).
You are a Jill Steining because this is the reality we live in, if you would pay attention to Esther’s pledge to end Citizens United, we wouldn’t have to deal with money in politics after this, making your point relevant. But this is reality now!
Lisa has zero shot at taking this seat let alone the primary. Plus… isn’t it Lisa’s people who have been attacking Esther for being a mom and running? I think we need more moms in Congress.
I have no idea what you are talking about with the moms thing. Lisa is a mom too, with kids still in school. A primary is not a general. When only two people are in a race, there is obviously more name recognition, and she'll have the backing of Democrats as their nominee. Local Dem groups will be canvassing, calling, and texting for her as the nominee.
Thirty percent of voters are undecided. That matters. Six weeks ago, Xavier Becerra was polling at 4% with $1 million in his campaign and about 30% undecided. Today is the democratic front-runner at 18% with $4 million, while Tom Steyer has spent a ridiculous $170 million and still sits at 12-14%.
People don't understand polling. Having the biggest group be "undecided" means those people are up for grabs. If EKV is really the frontrunner, she shouldn't stress as much as she is, since it is unlikely, given the district's demographics and electoral makeup, that two Republicans will get in. It's slightly more likely than the state as a whole, but still unlikely, since 60% of the district is either Democratic or independent. Independents have been breaking hard for Democrats in special elections for the past year. This year, about 60-70% of independents are predicted to go for Dems in California. On top of that, Republican enthusiasm is lower, and turnout for Republicans is generally lower in midterms anyway, because they are low-propensity voters.
We don’t have six weeks, we have 2 1/2. If 30% are undecided that means Lisa is polling at less then 3%? If that’s the case, she would have to pick up almost all of that 30%, that isn’t viable. Let’s just be real with each other.
Lisa’s supporters have attacked Esther a lot, including the attack on her being a mom yesterday. But if we are honest with each other, Esther has the support and resources to win. Can Lisa reach as many people as Esther with her 60k war chest? I doubt it.
Lisa is not polling that low, even according to Esther’s poll. And Esther is the overt bully. The things she says to potential voters are absolutely out of line. She insults and blocks them. I can show you screenshots of her insulting me this morning. If you’re a secure and confident candidate, you don’t insult voters. You realize voters are sovereign, whether you like it or not.
If she makes it to Congress, she can’t block voters or refuse to take their calls. I have been witnessing her character for over a year now. I went from a supporter to a reluctant supporter to soft opposition to hard opposition in that time. After witnessing her shenanigans for an entire year.
Do what you think is necessary, but she does not have the character, temperament, or experience necessary for Congress.
That equals 66%. If you throw in 30% undecided that leaves 4%. That’s the math.
Hard truths are different then insults. I’d want someone who I might disagree with on certain issues, but is willing to push and fight and say the uncomfortable truths. I don’t want another ‘yes man’ Democrat. I want someone who fights hard. Esther fights!
Yes. And one needs other's vote, but slings insults anyway. Apparently that's supposedly a winning strategy.
Y'all are super sure of your candidate, but also super hurt that others don't want to vote for her due to her own behavior. Perhaps inquire about the “mistakes” she says she made. She actually made a video, now deleted, saying, “I don't want your support,” if you didn't agree with her. Cool, cool. I won't.
Being able to out raise Lisa 18x with small doner donations, no PAC or corporate money shows you just how much people trust her. Voters also show support with their money, and if she is such a “bully” to so many people, you’d think that she wouldn’t have so much support in the polls or finances. If she didn’t have good policies you would think people wouldn’t give her money and support.
It’s almost like she has more support then any other DEM in this race, and everyone else can’t stand that she isn’t a typical politician. That she is willing to fight and push back when it means getting things done for CA40.
Well, fighting back AGAINST voters is a losing strategy. She needs voters to win, so perhaps she isn't being very smart about how she is approaching her persuasion campaign. Anwyay, I am done. You've failed to convince me.
I don’t think you were ever willing to be convinced. Supporting a candidate who aligns the most with your beliefs is great early in a primary, but when it gets to the end, you have to choose the one that has the best shot at winning that comes closest to your ideals. That’s politics. There is no perfect politician, to think that is ridiculous.
So if Esther doesn’t win one of the primary spots, are you voting for Kim or Calvert? Because that is the question we all have to ask ourselves.
Do not to let fear tactics impact your voting decision. Let’s be honest about what’s happening in this race.
“Electability” is being used as a pressure tactic, not a fact. Internal polls, selective data points, and constant repetition of “only one person can win” are meant to shape behavior, not just reflect reality.
We’ve seen this playbook before. Candidates get labeled “non-viable” early, voters get spooked into falling in line, and suddenly a narrative becomes “truth” simply because it’s repeated enough.
That’s not strategy. That’s conditioning.
Real elections are decided by voters who think for themselves, not by campaign memos or self-funded polling. Momentum changes when people stop voting out of fear and start voting based on who they actually believe in.
If a candidate is truly as dominant as claimed, they shouldn’t need to spend this much time convincing everyone that no one else has a chance.
Voters create outcomes. Don’t let someone else decide yours for you.
I said what I said and I won’t be responding to any comments.
To all the folks expressing unwillingness to vote for Esther I have a few honest questions for you.
If you wake up on June 3rd to results that put Ken Calvert and Young Kim to the general, with EKV trailing by a few thousand votes, will you celebrate because she failed?
If the house is won by Republicans by 1 seat and the Democratic Party is unable to resist more horrible legislation in the next 2 years, is that an acceptable outcome because you like Ramirez better?
Does anyone think that the other candidates actually have any real shot of winning the primary? How?
Ok and I’d rather we have a more left wing Democrat but that isn’t a choice we have this election. You still haven’t answered a single question I asked.
Here's an answer: Esther spends her time insulting potential voters. If someone kept insulting you and others you knew directly, would YOU vote for them? I doubt it.
I am not going to be bullied into a vote. That's not how this works. She literally took me from supporter to opponent by her own actions. Don't blame voters because she's not a decent person.
Esther stands up for herself more than any other politician and I get that upsets people. Fact of the matter is I think refusing to vote for a viable candidate makes you culpable for what the Republicans do. It’s more revealing about your morals that you will put your own petty feeling above things like national abortion protections and preventing fascism.
Yes! I have been knocking on doors since our district changed and we got Young Kim instead of Katie Porter. Just one term after getting rid of Mimi Walters. Brutal! Anyway, Joe Kerr is our best chance. If every registered democrat had voted in the last election we would be trying to save a blue seat instead of flipping a ruby red one. 🤬
I’m genuinely curious as to why you think Kerr has the best shot? His campaign this cycle has had very few donations and has been rather anemic. Also, in all recent polling Kerr has been lagging far behind.
I’ve also been active since Porter’s first campaign, and I supported Kerr last cycle, but with less than 2 weeks to go the writing is on the wall in my opinion. It’s Esther or a lockout, and all the data supports that.
Also, saying if every Democrat voted we would have won is completely meaningless, that’s true of most races and 100% turnout is impossible.
My opinion is based on my personal experience from GOTV activities for CA40 since we lost Katie Porter and on the fact that Joe won the primary last time. Now he has support from the teacher's union in the primary, as well as the vast majority of other unions. The new district has more union households. He narrowed the margin significantly in the last election despite being outspent 10 to 1. Most people don't want to donate or volunteer for a "safe red" district and the grassroots organizations are focusing on other districts for that very reason. Only a few voters I've spoken with while canvassing had heard of Esther and no one I spoke with was voting for her.
Interesting. As of late my GOTV activities have suggested EKV has the best name recognition, and polling seems to reflect that too. It’ll be interesting to see who’s experiences play out in the primary.
I made the post below on Truth OC months ago and, as I expected, I received some flak for it. Nonetheless, I still stand behind Esther Kim Varet. I believe she has the strongest chance of any Democratic candidate to win CA-40.
At some point in a campaign, candidates need to recognize that “unity isn’t a betrayal of ideals — it’s how ideals become law.”
Some candidates may have a great message or even stronger experience, but if voters never see or hear that message, how can they realistically expect to win? Elections today are as much about visibility and engagement as they are about qualifications.
I’m tired of the current administration’s leadership and what I view as a complicit Johnson-led Congress. What Varet may lack in political experience, she makes up for with pluck, enthusiasm, and the ability to connect with people. She’s smart, driven, and capable of learning on the job.
ORGINAL POST “I’ll probably take some flak for this, but if the goal is truly to turn the House blue, Democrats need to start acting like a coalition — not a casting call. In CA-40, we’re facing a simple reality: too many Democratic candidates are running in this race. By my count, there are at least seven, and this level of fragmentation all but guarantees one outcome—the incumbent wins. This isn’t a question of values or intentions. It’s a question of math and visibility.
I stand corrected if there’s data to the contrary, but among the Democratic field, one candidate clearly stands apart in terms of reach and voter engagement. Esther Kim Varet has built a large, active social-media following that far exceeds the rest of the field—even if the other six candidates’ followings are combined. That visibility matters, because in modern elections, a message that isn’t heard might as well not exist.
While a candidate may have stronger credentials or deeper policy experience, elections aren’t decided by résumés. They’re decided by who voters actually see, hear, and remember. Competence without reach remains theoretical—and theoretical candidates don’t flip House seats.
The Republican incumbent, Young Kim, benefits directly from this division. She already has a strong social-media presence—second highest among all candidates—and every additional Democratic contender further splits attention, resources, and votes. The result is predictable: Democrats dilute their own chances while making it easier for her to advance.
Uniting behind the candidate most capable of winning is not a compromise of principle. Policy depth can—and should—be built through staff, advisors, and committees after victory. This race doesn’t need more good Democrats. It needs one winning Democrat.
Unity isn’t a betrayal of ideals. It’s how ideals become law."
Appreciate your analysis. With respect to media outreach, old-fashioned direct mail also comes into play. Numerous Republican flyers vs. only Esther for the Democrat side.
Esther, you gave us no reason to vote for you other than you have the most money among Dem party candidates…from what I’ve learned about you, it’s your own (husband’s) personal fortune. Maybe use some of your fortune to fund better qualified candidates (hello, Lisa Ramirez) who then just might have a chance. You have no experience for this position and don’t even live in this district.
Nope - 65,000 grassroots donations - 5,000 from our district alone with an average donation of $27. From teachers, retirees, students, grocery clerks all from CA40.
All the other candidates in the race have self-funded almost half their campaign resources. That is not a real grassroots movement. Please stop spreading rumors. All facts based on public FEC reports. Let’s be the party of facts focused on winning. Looking forward to doing it together. Thank you.
Ah, a couple of quick points. Most of the funding for the campaign is from the large donor base. The receipts are on the fec.gov web site. Also, they do live in the district, although not required to do so by law (only must live in the state).
If a political candidate is given a free opportunity to send out their message and speak to their constituents and then uses it to speak at them, it tells you a lot about that candidate. She had a huge chance to earn some votes. In my opinion she wasted it. And yes, I have seen her website, heard her speeches, and seen her social media.
I understand what's at stake. My comment was about a candidate who squandered away a chance at speaking her truth. This type of misstep makes me skeptical of what she will, or won't do in Congress. But I don't squander away my votes either. If the people in Hungary thought that way they wouldn't have overthrown the government. I saw first-hand a grassroots movement that had little chance succeed and two school board candidates recalled by an overwhelming vote. So there's that. And a lot to consider before June 2.
You are right not to let fear tactics impact your decision. Let’s be honest about what’s happening in this race.
“Electability” is being used as a pressure tactic, not a fact. Internal polls, selective data points, and constant repetition of “only one person can win” are meant to shape behavior, not just reflect reality.
We’ve seen this playbook before. Candidates get labeled “non-viable” early, voters get spooked into falling in line, and suddenly a narrative becomes “truth” simply because it’s repeated enough.
That’s not strategy. That’s conditioning.
Real elections are decided by voters who think for themselves, not by campaign memos or self-funded polling. Momentum changes when people stop voting out of fear and start voting based on who they actually believe in.
If a candidate is truly as dominant as claimed, they shouldn’t need to spend this much time convincing everyone that no one else has a chance.
Voters create outcomes. Don’t let someone else decide yours for you.
Your acting like this is a general election. This is a jungle primary, we have no shot at this seat if a Dem doesn’t get into the general election race. You all realize that correct?
And there isn’t plenty of time before June 2nd. That is 2 1/2 weeks away. That’s it!
This isn’t a pressure campaign, it’s laying out the reality of what we have in front of us. This attitude of “well she’s pressuring me for my vote” will lead us to 2 republicans in the general election and then we all lose.
If this primary was going to produce one Rep and one Dem no matter what, then this conversation is totally different and your points are much more valid. That is not our primary races. Top two move on, no matter what. Dems have to coalesce around one candidate to have a shot, and right now that candidate is Esther because she has the best chance to move on to the general election.
Esther's experience includes leadership and participation in these worthy causes. I've culled these from Internet searching plus remembering a few statements Esther has said in various socials. Not saying this is a complete list, and if there are errors I'm sure Esther can correct me. One can see how these are consistent with her policy objectives (yes, I realize I didn't correlate them here, just didn't want to make this entry too long).
Mission Statement: Our principal areas of focus are education, health care, assistance to refugees and underprivileged members of the Jewish community living in the former Soviet Union, social justice and local community organizations in the New York metropolitan area, Los Angeles and the northwest corner of Connecticut.
Mission Statement: Sexy Beast is a fundraising initiative, led by a team of individuals in the arts, to raise essential funds for Planned Parenthood Los Angeles (PPLA). This coalition brings together the skills and experience of Los Angeles's creative communities in support of reproductive rights, accessible healthcare, and full bodily autonomy for all people.
No it doesn’t. You are FOS. I would be happy to compare my financial support of public service-minded CA Democrat candidates against yours any day. I just don’t support your candidate and that offends you. Get over yourself.
Then don’t attack first if you can’t take the heat. You called her a conwoman first, mind you. You started with an insult, and when you received backlash, you got offended.
Don’t pretend to take the higher road after you started with the insult.
Now, if you want to discuss policy, plans, etc. happy to do that. But let’s not start with insults… that to me screams MAGA troll. If you aren’t, then let’s talk policies not be a keyboard warrior and insult people with no bases.
Actually, you took the low road first. You don't know me, but accused me of supporting MAGA just because I am not impressed by your candidate. She comes across as self-aggrandizing. And even on this platform, she chose not to address the issues, but instead claimed her singular viability. And you are worse for accusing anyone who dares to disagree of being a MAGA troll. You can't bully folks into voting your way. I think we all have had enough of that for a lifetime. I won't be responding further. Bye,bye.
I was making a point. You called her a conwoman and then got defensive when I called you a name. That’s the issue here, let’s learn the lesson.
You wanted to type your insult (for what ever reason, I personally believe it’s because you wouldn’t care if MAGA kept this district) and just move on to feel good about yourself.
Let’s call things as they are. This is the problem, you wanted to critize without substance. You want to look like you stand for something when you don’t have any policy thoughts.
Drive a conversation, not insults. You think I went low first by calling you a MAGA supporter, but you started with the insults. Recognized that first.
You wanted to talk policy, great! You want to talk viability to win the race, even better. But insults don’t help… they only hurt and devide.
One of the best sages I ever knew once told me that secret ballots were quasi popularity contests.
I doubt a Hancock Park (aka LA and 10 districts away) transplant will be able to overcome that baggage if she is successful in getting to the general election. You can be sure that both Calvert and Kim will make sure it is well known before November.
All the money in the world will not change that.
If money were the only thing that mattered.
CA would have had governors named Checchi, Riordan, Simon, and Whitman. All of those candidates had far more in resources than the candidates that defeated them. Those being Gov. Davis, and Gov. Brown respectively. And beat them handily.
I make no secret of my support for Joe Kerr. He pulled 5% - 10% in his last election against Young Kim in 2024. Without targeting that group. He has worked blue collar jobs and knows how to get things done in both Sacramento and DC. There is no Dem (IMO) that can pull moderate GOP votes. And those will be needed to win in November.
Even Young Kim's own poll showed Kerr in a three way tie with Young Kim and Calvert. I have more faith in a poll from an opponent than one that is funded by the candidate touting its results. Results that coincidentally favor the candidate who paid for it.
I would not put too much credibility into anything from Vern Nelson.
If you knew anything about him you would know why. Suffice to say there are numerous legal entanglements involving five DUI's and numerous credible accusations of domestic abuse.
You would rather vote for someone who has no chance?
I don’t like using this as a source, because I hate that we are betting on politics, but they know something. Kalshi has only 1 DEM in this race. Esther is that DEM.
No mention of policy or plans (unless you are willing to look it up yourself and I am not), just a silly motivational speech to vote for her. Nah, pass.
That’s sad you don’t want to do the research. Ok. Door’s always open - and resources are listed there if you’re curious.
The door was wide open but you chose not to speak to your issues. Disappointing.
This. Don't waste a vote on entitled Esther.
All you have to do is click one simple link (which she provided). It shows all of her policy views.
OK. According to Esther, we should vote for her because, according to polling, she's the "only viable candidate." Not much in there about her experience, her governing philosophy, her credentials, or how she's going to help the people of the 40th if elected. What I'm getting is that she "believes she has what it takes" because she believes she's the only candidate with enough money to get elected. I'm unmoved.
Jim, totally agree. The message of vote for me otherwise Dems are going to get shutout, may be practical, but it is really leaving a sour taste in my mouth.
30% of voters are undecided in this district. You can vote your conscience.
Just checking where is the 30% undecided coming from. I was looking at that May 6th Tulchin poll, approximately 32% considering Democrat only, and approximately 23% considering all voters. Not challenging you, just asking.
Its 23% overall and 32% for dems. I just double checked.
Thanks. We're looking at the same thing then. Appreciated.
Agreed. This was her chance to tell us why to vote for her, besides giving us the numbers. She could have done both. I can click the link and research. But she was given this platform and wasted it. Any candidate for public office would welcome this opportunity to speak to the voters, not at them.
If you guys looked at her website you would see her policies and what she stands for. It’s just basic research. Also, these substack articles only have a limited number of content characters.
Would you prefer a Trump supporting MAGA representative or someone who aligns with some or most of your values?
Seems like you would rather just complain then actually do something that would help move things into a better state. CA40 can be flipped and we can get two MAGA republicans out of office with one swipe. No other Democrat has the ability to do that, that’s politics at this moment. Do you want to complain or win?
Thanks for your response. Jeff's article indicated that she was offering an alternative to Ramirez or responding to Ramirez's op-ed. I know that her positions are on her website, but I was responding to what she wrote in this particular article. And of course I would NOT prefer a Trump-supporting MAGA, but begging your pardon, that's a false choice. My comment had to do with the fact that she had an opportunity to present her case in Jeff's post and she chose to use it to talk about her polling. If that is the only thing I read from or about her I'd think it was pretty lacking.
The primary is in a few weeks, we have to focus on viability, it’s a jungle primary… if she doesn’t show her viability then 2 MAGAs face off and we lose the district. I could understand your point if we had a few months, but she’s got to focus on showing people she has the support and resources to win.
I don't disagree. I just think she missed an opportunity to give people a reason to vote for her other than her polling (which, I suspect to many), isn't reason enough. I get the realpolitik of the moment; can't disagree there either. Again, just commenting on her piece. I think the average voter is still looking for something other than "I'm the only one who can win". One man's opinion. Good convo. Thanks.
I think it just comes down to what messaging needs to be put out to get a Dem into the general. So many other candidates have no real shot and it gets frustrating to see people not understand where we are today. We have to play this game to change it.
Couldn't agree more! Sad fact, but you can't win if you don't play.
Jim -- Click the link "here" that she provided. All of your questions about what she stands for are answered there in black and white.
Stacey, thanks. I've seen her ads and read her materials. I was just commenting on the piece in Jeff's post. She didn't bring up any of her positions, credentials, or experience in that piece. It was just, "I'm the only one that can win." She may be right, but she didn't give anyone another other reason to vote for her in Jeff's post. That's all I'm saying. I have no ax to grind with her. I just think it would have served her better to say, "here's what I stand for, here's what I'll strive to do, and by the way, I'm the only one that can win." One man's point of view.
Yes, perhaps. But I think it just would have made her post waaaay too long if she also included all of those policy stances. But perhaps she could have worded things differently too.
I’m voting for Esther. She’s the only dog in this fight that can stack up and beat these awful incumbents.
I am a life long democrat who would not vote for any candidate who has such a sense of entitlement, a condescending attitude towards the voters who don't appear to appreciate her talents.
This.
Well, given the fact that Esther Kim Varet took all morning to attack me on Instagram today, it's a HARD NO from me. She is childish and chose to argue with me, a random lady from Mission Viejo, for two hours instead of focusing on the issues that impact us in this district. She was completely fine insulting me and telling me I didn't know anything about this district because "30 years ago it was farmland" (I distinctly remember attending Mission Viejo High School 30 years ago, which had an FFA, but was not surrounded by farmland. But, I digress).
Here are some facts to keep in mind. Her poll only conveniently omits "undecideds" when she presents it. About 30% of the district is undecided at this point. Polling in this era is also notoriously difficult, given that most people no longer answer phones and many will not respond to poll texts or social media posts. Those who do are more likely to live in the district's most affluent areas and be on social media, etc. This was the problem with polling in 2024, which predicted Harris's win in places like Iowa. There is no unified way to reach voters anymore, especially in rural areas. People in the eastern part of the district are simply harder to reach.
She also ignores the demographics of this area, which saw a record turnout of the Latino vote for Prop 50. I certainly don't think the Latino vote is monolithic. We know that male Latinos increased their vote share for Republicans in 2024, but as we have seen in special election after special election in 2025, that 2024 advantage has been crumbling. Lisa certainly has the advantage here, with her work as an immigration attorney and as a champion for all immigrant communities.
Lastly, many of us are sick and tired of being told that the person with the most money should be nominated because...money. Naw. No. NOPE. Screw that noise forever and always. Not when you attack voters whom you say you respect, but have no trouble insulting. We will only get out of this true death spiral when we say, "enough is enough" and vote our consciences.
Now her supporters will attack me and say I am "Jill Steining" my vote. I am not. Lisa is a Democratic Party candidate. She is a lawyer who has lived in OC for more than 20 years. She is an immigration attorney who has stood up to ICE and DHS and won. She has my vote, even if we wake up tomorrow and EKV says she is spending a billion dollars.
In a democracy, voters are sovereign, and they have the final say. EVK is not entitled to anyone's vote. She will not get mine.
Weird comment for someone to make about not knowing the district when they themselves didn't even live there before last year
But Lisa also doesn’t have the resources or name recognition to beat Kim or Calvert. That’s just facts based on her FEC fillings (also she’s self funded, doesn’t live in the district, and just recently re-registered as a Dem, but I digress).
You are a Jill Steining because this is the reality we live in, if you would pay attention to Esther’s pledge to end Citizens United, we wouldn’t have to deal with money in politics after this, making your point relevant. But this is reality now!
Lisa has zero shot at taking this seat let alone the primary. Plus… isn’t it Lisa’s people who have been attacking Esther for being a mom and running? I think we need more moms in Congress.
I have no idea what you are talking about with the moms thing. Lisa is a mom too, with kids still in school. A primary is not a general. When only two people are in a race, there is obviously more name recognition, and she'll have the backing of Democrats as their nominee. Local Dem groups will be canvassing, calling, and texting for her as the nominee.
Thirty percent of voters are undecided. That matters. Six weeks ago, Xavier Becerra was polling at 4% with $1 million in his campaign and about 30% undecided. Today is the democratic front-runner at 18% with $4 million, while Tom Steyer has spent a ridiculous $170 million and still sits at 12-14%.
People don't understand polling. Having the biggest group be "undecided" means those people are up for grabs. If EKV is really the frontrunner, she shouldn't stress as much as she is, since it is unlikely, given the district's demographics and electoral makeup, that two Republicans will get in. It's slightly more likely than the state as a whole, but still unlikely, since 60% of the district is either Democratic or independent. Independents have been breaking hard for Democrats in special elections for the past year. This year, about 60-70% of independents are predicted to go for Dems in California. On top of that, Republican enthusiasm is lower, and turnout for Republicans is generally lower in midterms anyway, because they are low-propensity voters.
We don’t have six weeks, we have 2 1/2. If 30% are undecided that means Lisa is polling at less then 3%? If that’s the case, she would have to pick up almost all of that 30%, that isn’t viable. Let’s just be real with each other.
Lisa’s supporters have attacked Esther a lot, including the attack on her being a mom yesterday. But if we are honest with each other, Esther has the support and resources to win. Can Lisa reach as many people as Esther with her 60k war chest? I doubt it.
Lisa is not polling that low, even according to Esther’s poll. And Esther is the overt bully. The things she says to potential voters are absolutely out of line. She insults and blocks them. I can show you screenshots of her insulting me this morning. If you’re a secure and confident candidate, you don’t insult voters. You realize voters are sovereign, whether you like it or not.
If she makes it to Congress, she can’t block voters or refuse to take their calls. I have been witnessing her character for over a year now. I went from a supporter to a reluctant supporter to soft opposition to hard opposition in that time. After witnessing her shenanigans for an entire year.
Do what you think is necessary, but she does not have the character, temperament, or experience necessary for Congress.
24% Calvert
22% Kim
20% Esther
That equals 66%. If you throw in 30% undecided that leaves 4%. That’s the math.
Hard truths are different then insults. I’d want someone who I might disagree with on certain issues, but is willing to push and fight and say the uncomfortable truths. I don’t want another ‘yes man’ Democrat. I want someone who fights hard. Esther fights!
All right. I remain unconvinced that a combative person who insults voters is the best choice. Good luck.
Exactly! Voting for Joe Kerr.
It takes two to tango.
Yes. And one needs other's vote, but slings insults anyway. Apparently that's supposedly a winning strategy.
Y'all are super sure of your candidate, but also super hurt that others don't want to vote for her due to her own behavior. Perhaps inquire about the “mistakes” she says she made. She actually made a video, now deleted, saying, “I don't want your support,” if you didn't agree with her. Cool, cool. I won't.
Or maybe it shows she is engaged and not afraid to speak directly to constituents without some sort of “political barrier” to protect her.
Esther is real, honest, and a fighter. We need more direct people in Congress. People trying to appease everyone is why we are in this position.
Or maybe it shows she's a bully with utter contempt for the people she needs to elect her.
Being able to out raise Lisa 18x with small doner donations, no PAC or corporate money shows you just how much people trust her. Voters also show support with their money, and if she is such a “bully” to so many people, you’d think that she wouldn’t have so much support in the polls or finances. If she didn’t have good policies you would think people wouldn’t give her money and support.
It’s almost like she has more support then any other DEM in this race, and everyone else can’t stand that she isn’t a typical politician. That she is willing to fight and push back when it means getting things done for CA40.
Well, fighting back AGAINST voters is a losing strategy. She needs voters to win, so perhaps she isn't being very smart about how she is approaching her persuasion campaign. Anwyay, I am done. You've failed to convince me.
I don’t think you were ever willing to be convinced. Supporting a candidate who aligns the most with your beliefs is great early in a primary, but when it gets to the end, you have to choose the one that has the best shot at winning that comes closest to your ideals. That’s politics. There is no perfect politician, to think that is ridiculous.
So if Esther doesn’t win one of the primary spots, are you voting for Kim or Calvert? Because that is the question we all have to ask ourselves.
Do not to let fear tactics impact your voting decision. Let’s be honest about what’s happening in this race.
“Electability” is being used as a pressure tactic, not a fact. Internal polls, selective data points, and constant repetition of “only one person can win” are meant to shape behavior, not just reflect reality.
We’ve seen this playbook before. Candidates get labeled “non-viable” early, voters get spooked into falling in line, and suddenly a narrative becomes “truth” simply because it’s repeated enough.
That’s not strategy. That’s conditioning.
Real elections are decided by voters who think for themselves, not by campaign memos or self-funded polling. Momentum changes when people stop voting out of fear and start voting based on who they actually believe in.
If a candidate is truly as dominant as claimed, they shouldn’t need to spend this much time convincing everyone that no one else has a chance.
Voters create outcomes. Don’t let someone else decide yours for you.
I said what I said and I won’t be responding to any comments.
👏 👏 👏 👏
What a crock! Vote for the moderate who isn't a short tempered moaner.. Joe Kerr.
Showing a willingness to not be an establishment Democrat isn't exactly the slam that you think it is
I can see why that wouldn't bother you, given that you are the establishment
That was due to the anti-Israel voters who stayed home in swing states like Michigan and Biden's foolish stance on illegal immigration. Try again.
Accusing Lisa of opportunism, unironically, is kind of adorable.
To all the folks expressing unwillingness to vote for Esther I have a few honest questions for you.
If you wake up on June 3rd to results that put Ken Calvert and Young Kim to the general, with EKV trailing by a few thousand votes, will you celebrate because she failed?
If the house is won by Republicans by 1 seat and the Democratic Party is unable to resist more horrible legislation in the next 2 years, is that an acceptable outcome because you like Ramirez better?
Does anyone think that the other candidates actually have any real shot of winning the primary? How?
Well, EVK is quite awful and combative to potential voters, so instead of blaming them, how about take that up with your candidate?
That does not answer any of my questions. If that is enough to make it so that you would rather have a republican than EKV just say that.
I would rather not have anyone who had such utter contempt for voters, which all three of them have. 🙄
Ok and I’d rather we have a more left wing Democrat but that isn’t a choice we have this election. You still haven’t answered a single question I asked.
Here's an answer: Esther spends her time insulting potential voters. If someone kept insulting you and others you knew directly, would YOU vote for them? I doubt it.
I am not going to be bullied into a vote. That's not how this works. She literally took me from supporter to opponent by her own actions. Don't blame voters because she's not a decent person.
Esther stands up for herself more than any other politician and I get that upsets people. Fact of the matter is I think refusing to vote for a viable candidate makes you culpable for what the Republicans do. It’s more revealing about your morals that you will put your own petty feeling above things like national abortion protections and preventing fascism.
Combative? It takes two to tango....
I won’t be celebrating, but I hope the lesson behind EKV’s candidacy will be remembered far into the future and never to be repeated. That’s worth it.
Yes! I have been knocking on doors since our district changed and we got Young Kim instead of Katie Porter. Just one term after getting rid of Mimi Walters. Brutal! Anyway, Joe Kerr is our best chance. If every registered democrat had voted in the last election we would be trying to save a blue seat instead of flipping a ruby red one. 🤬
I’m genuinely curious as to why you think Kerr has the best shot? His campaign this cycle has had very few donations and has been rather anemic. Also, in all recent polling Kerr has been lagging far behind.
I’ve also been active since Porter’s first campaign, and I supported Kerr last cycle, but with less than 2 weeks to go the writing is on the wall in my opinion. It’s Esther or a lockout, and all the data supports that.
Also, saying if every Democrat voted we would have won is completely meaningless, that’s true of most races and 100% turnout is impossible.
My opinion is based on my personal experience from GOTV activities for CA40 since we lost Katie Porter and on the fact that Joe won the primary last time. Now he has support from the teacher's union in the primary, as well as the vast majority of other unions. The new district has more union households. He narrowed the margin significantly in the last election despite being outspent 10 to 1. Most people don't want to donate or volunteer for a "safe red" district and the grassroots organizations are focusing on other districts for that very reason. Only a few voters I've spoken with while canvassing had heard of Esther and no one I spoke with was voting for her.
Interesting. As of late my GOTV activities have suggested EKV has the best name recognition, and polling seems to reflect that too. It’ll be interesting to see who’s experiences play out in the primary.
I made the post below on Truth OC months ago and, as I expected, I received some flak for it. Nonetheless, I still stand behind Esther Kim Varet. I believe she has the strongest chance of any Democratic candidate to win CA-40.
At some point in a campaign, candidates need to recognize that “unity isn’t a betrayal of ideals — it’s how ideals become law.”
Some candidates may have a great message or even stronger experience, but if voters never see or hear that message, how can they realistically expect to win? Elections today are as much about visibility and engagement as they are about qualifications.
I’m tired of the current administration’s leadership and what I view as a complicit Johnson-led Congress. What Varet may lack in political experience, she makes up for with pluck, enthusiasm, and the ability to connect with people. She’s smart, driven, and capable of learning on the job.
ORGINAL POST “I’ll probably take some flak for this, but if the goal is truly to turn the House blue, Democrats need to start acting like a coalition — not a casting call. In CA-40, we’re facing a simple reality: too many Democratic candidates are running in this race. By my count, there are at least seven, and this level of fragmentation all but guarantees one outcome—the incumbent wins. This isn’t a question of values or intentions. It’s a question of math and visibility.
I stand corrected if there’s data to the contrary, but among the Democratic field, one candidate clearly stands apart in terms of reach and voter engagement. Esther Kim Varet has built a large, active social-media following that far exceeds the rest of the field—even if the other six candidates’ followings are combined. That visibility matters, because in modern elections, a message that isn’t heard might as well not exist.
While a candidate may have stronger credentials or deeper policy experience, elections aren’t decided by résumés. They’re decided by who voters actually see, hear, and remember. Competence without reach remains theoretical—and theoretical candidates don’t flip House seats.
The Republican incumbent, Young Kim, benefits directly from this division. She already has a strong social-media presence—second highest among all candidates—and every additional Democratic contender further splits attention, resources, and votes. The result is predictable: Democrats dilute their own chances while making it easier for her to advance.
Uniting behind the candidate most capable of winning is not a compromise of principle. Policy depth can—and should—be built through staff, advisors, and committees after victory. This race doesn’t need more good Democrats. It needs one winning Democrat.
Unity isn’t a betrayal of ideals. It’s how ideals become law."
Appreciate your analysis. With respect to media outreach, old-fashioned direct mail also comes into play. Numerous Republican flyers vs. only Esther for the Democrat side.
And to clarify, I meant what I have actually received. Could be direct mail sent out by the other candidates, too, just nothing I've received.
Esther, you gave us no reason to vote for you other than you have the most money among Dem party candidates…from what I’ve learned about you, it’s your own (husband’s) personal fortune. Maybe use some of your fortune to fund better qualified candidates (hello, Lisa Ramirez) who then just might have a chance. You have no experience for this position and don’t even live in this district.
Nope - 65,000 grassroots donations - 5,000 from our district alone with an average donation of $27. From teachers, retirees, students, grocery clerks all from CA40.
All the other candidates in the race have self-funded almost half their campaign resources. That is not a real grassroots movement. Please stop spreading rumors. All facts based on public FEC reports. Let’s be the party of facts focused on winning. Looking forward to doing it together. Thank you.
Ah, a couple of quick points. Most of the funding for the campaign is from the large donor base. The receipts are on the fec.gov web site. Also, they do live in the district, although not required to do so by law (only must live in the state).
https://lisaramirez.com
She's right - don't screw ourselves by not having some sort of unified strategy. Any candidate besides the republicans is a great candidate.
Let's not screw ourselves by voting for an unqualified candidate.
Yeah. She makes Katie Porter seem like Mrs. Claus.
Jeff, did you offer Kerr a chance to weigh in?
Yes. He's writing something, I believe.
If a political candidate is given a free opportunity to send out their message and speak to their constituents and then uses it to speak at them, it tells you a lot about that candidate. She had a huge chance to earn some votes. In my opinion she wasted it. And yes, I have seen her website, heard her speeches, and seen her social media.
So I’ll ask you, if she doesn’t advance in the primary are you gonna vote for Kim or Calvert?
Those are the stakes here. This seat could make a huge difference in Congress.
This was the type of discussion we could have 10 years ago. Not anymore. We need to fight.
I understand what's at stake. My comment was about a candidate who squandered away a chance at speaking her truth. This type of misstep makes me skeptical of what she will, or won't do in Congress. But I don't squander away my votes either. If the people in Hungary thought that way they wouldn't have overthrown the government. I saw first-hand a grassroots movement that had little chance succeed and two school board candidates recalled by an overwhelming vote. So there's that. And a lot to consider before June 2.
You are right not to let fear tactics impact your decision. Let’s be honest about what’s happening in this race.
“Electability” is being used as a pressure tactic, not a fact. Internal polls, selective data points, and constant repetition of “only one person can win” are meant to shape behavior, not just reflect reality.
We’ve seen this playbook before. Candidates get labeled “non-viable” early, voters get spooked into falling in line, and suddenly a narrative becomes “truth” simply because it’s repeated enough.
That’s not strategy. That’s conditioning.
Real elections are decided by voters who think for themselves, not by campaign memos or self-funded polling. Momentum changes when people stop voting out of fear and start voting based on who they actually believe in.
If a candidate is truly as dominant as claimed, they shouldn’t need to spend this much time convincing everyone that no one else has a chance.
Voters create outcomes. Don’t let someone else decide yours for you.
Your acting like this is a general election. This is a jungle primary, we have no shot at this seat if a Dem doesn’t get into the general election race. You all realize that correct?
And there isn’t plenty of time before June 2nd. That is 2 1/2 weeks away. That’s it!
This isn’t a pressure campaign, it’s laying out the reality of what we have in front of us. This attitude of “well she’s pressuring me for my vote” will lead us to 2 republicans in the general election and then we all lose.
If this primary was going to produce one Rep and one Dem no matter what, then this conversation is totally different and your points are much more valid. That is not our primary races. Top two move on, no matter what. Dems have to coalesce around one candidate to have a shot, and right now that candidate is Esther because she has the best chance to move on to the general election.
Come on people, wake up to the situation.
Esther's experience includes leadership and participation in these worthy causes. I've culled these from Internet searching plus remembering a few statements Esther has said in various socials. Not saying this is a complete list, and if there are errors I'm sure Esther can correct me. One can see how these are consistent with her policy objectives (yes, I realize I didn't correlate them here, just didn't want to make this entry too long).
Food Access Los Angeles
https://foodaccessla.org/
Role: Board Member
Mission statement: Feed Los Angeles. Support Farmers.
Building a more equitable food system for our communities.
Middle Road Foundation
middleroadfoundation.org
Role: Family foundation
Mission Statement: Our principal areas of focus are education, health care, assistance to refugees and underprivileged members of the Jewish community living in the former Soviet Union, social justice and local community organizations in the New York metropolitan area, Los Angeles and the northwest corner of Connecticut.
Natural Resources Defense Council
https://www.nrdc.org/
Role: National Committee Member
Mission Statement: NRDC works to safeguard the earth—its people, its plants and animals, and the natural systems on which all life depends.
https://sexybeast.org/
Role: founding steering member
Mission Statement: Sexy Beast is a fundraising initiative, led by a team of individuals in the arts, to raise essential funds for Planned Parenthood Los Angeles (PPLA). This coalition brings together the skills and experience of Los Angeles's creative communities in support of reproductive rights, accessible healthcare, and full bodily autonomy for all people.
Nobody cares.
Per the caption, she doesn't. A lot of confidence as in conwoman. Not buying her hype.
Sharon would rather see a MAGA republican in this seat… that speaks volumes.
No it doesn’t. You are FOS. I would be happy to compare my financial support of public service-minded CA Democrat candidates against yours any day. I just don’t support your candidate and that offends you. Get over yourself.
Then don’t attack first if you can’t take the heat. You called her a conwoman first, mind you. You started with an insult, and when you received backlash, you got offended.
Don’t pretend to take the higher road after you started with the insult.
Now, if you want to discuss policy, plans, etc. happy to do that. But let’s not start with insults… that to me screams MAGA troll. If you aren’t, then let’s talk policies not be a keyboard warrior and insult people with no bases.
Actually, you took the low road first. You don't know me, but accused me of supporting MAGA just because I am not impressed by your candidate. She comes across as self-aggrandizing. And even on this platform, she chose not to address the issues, but instead claimed her singular viability. And you are worse for accusing anyone who dares to disagree of being a MAGA troll. You can't bully folks into voting your way. I think we all have had enough of that for a lifetime. I won't be responding further. Bye,bye.
I was making a point. You called her a conwoman and then got defensive when I called you a name. That’s the issue here, let’s learn the lesson.
You wanted to type your insult (for what ever reason, I personally believe it’s because you wouldn’t care if MAGA kept this district) and just move on to feel good about yourself.
Let’s call things as they are. This is the problem, you wanted to critize without substance. You want to look like you stand for something when you don’t have any policy thoughts.
Drive a conversation, not insults. You think I went low first by calling you a MAGA supporter, but you started with the insults. Recognized that first.
You wanted to talk policy, great! You want to talk viability to win the race, even better. But insults don’t help… they only hurt and devide.
I have read her policies and strongly support her as a candidate.
Have stated this numerous times.
There is more to winning than money.
One of the best sages I ever knew once told me that secret ballots were quasi popularity contests.
I doubt a Hancock Park (aka LA and 10 districts away) transplant will be able to overcome that baggage if she is successful in getting to the general election. You can be sure that both Calvert and Kim will make sure it is well known before November.
All the money in the world will not change that.
If money were the only thing that mattered.
CA would have had governors named Checchi, Riordan, Simon, and Whitman. All of those candidates had far more in resources than the candidates that defeated them. Those being Gov. Davis, and Gov. Brown respectively. And beat them handily.
I make no secret of my support for Joe Kerr. He pulled 5% - 10% in his last election against Young Kim in 2024. Without targeting that group. He has worked blue collar jobs and knows how to get things done in both Sacramento and DC. There is no Dem (IMO) that can pull moderate GOP votes. And those will be needed to win in November.
Even Young Kim's own poll showed Kerr in a three way tie with Young Kim and Calvert. I have more faith in a poll from an opponent than one that is funded by the candidate touting its results. Results that coincidentally favor the candidate who paid for it.
https://www.joekerrforcongress.com/
Hear hear. Thank you! Voting for Kerr.
I would not put too much credibility into anything from Vern Nelson.
If you knew anything about him you would know why. Suffice to say there are numerous legal entanglements involving five DUI's and numerous credible accusations of domestic abuse.
https://theliberaloc.com/2018/02/01/lies-damn-lies-and-vern-nelson/
More to the point.
It does not change the fact that Young Kim's poll shows a three way tie with Kim, Calvert, and Kerr.
Yes. Please keep using Nelson as a credible source.
“Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.”
- Napoleon Bonaparte
You would rather vote for someone who has no chance?
I don’t like using this as a source, because I hate that we are betting on politics, but they know something. Kalshi has only 1 DEM in this race. Esther is that DEM.
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxca40primaryadvance/who-will-advance-from-the-ca40-primary/kxca40primaryadvance-26
Once again.
Money is not the only issue that determines winning or losing a campaign.
EVK has a ton of baggage that will be used against her in the general.
Money will not matter in a district that still holds a GOP advantage in registration.
You wrote;
" but it's common sense...."
A term so vague as to be meaningless.
There are other ways a campaign is supported outside of personal resources.
You really show you are a dilletante when it comes to politics.
Have a good evening.
The only poll that matters is June 2.
OC Register wants to disparage the only candidate who has a chance of beating one of their MAGA candidates.