An unpopular take on CA-40
If Proposition 50 passes (and it likely will), Democrats need not waste their time. Or dough.
So I’ve devoted a ton of time on this website to the CA-40 congressional race, what with a fleet of Democrats aiming to knock off Republican Young Kim next November. And, I have to say, I’ve genuinely enjoyed getting to know the myriad candidates. They’re a quirky crew; an oddball collection of folks from myriad walks of life trying to land a new gig. They deserve grand respect for entering a largely thankless fight.
Sincerely, props to them all.
That being said, I always want this site to preach truth. And the hard truth is, should Proposition 50 pass and California experience the Gavin Newson-established redistricting plan, the CA-40 will be a lock for Republicans.
Not a potential lock. Not sort of a lock. A 100-percent lock.
I know … I know—how can you say that? I know … I know—miracles happen. What about Truman-Dewey? What about the ‘69 Jets? What about Vanilla Ice topping the charts? What about the Menudo reunion tour? What about …
No.
No, no, no.
Should redistricting happen, a CA-40 that leans, oh, one point Republican will, suddenly, lean nine points Republican. That mean Esther Kim Varet won’t win, Perry Meade won’t win, the ghost of John F. Kennedy wouldn’t win. It’s far too steep a hill to overcome, and the national Democratic Party won’t put a penny into the race. They already know the reality of the situation—and we need to, too.
And, truth be told, it’s politically important to grasp realities. Far too often, we Democrats make the mistake of funding hopeless campaigns, thereby throwing away invaluable time and resources. I think back to 2020, when Amy McGrath raised oodles of dough in her run against Mitch McConnell—only to fall by nearly 20 points.I think back to 2022, when a cowboy hat-wearing Democrat named Marcus Flowers swore he had the game to topple Marjorie Taylor Green—then lost by 31 points. All that money spent on two guaranteed losers was money that could have been used for tight margins. It was stupid and wasteful and disorganized chaos.
So … let’s be smart here. If Prop 50 fails, we will fight our asses off in the 40th. We will take it to Young Kim.
But, if it passes (as I hope), let’s all be wise enough to redirect our energies elsewhere.
Because hope, without reality, isn’t merely stupid.
It’s profoundly stupid.
Sadly, you are correct. And we live in her district and have to put up with her bullshit emails. No doubt her ancestors came to this country because they were hoping that someday, one of their kin, would support a Fascist.
Or one of them could do what I did last election for AD71: be the token Dem on the ballot, just to give voters a choice. Don't spend money or time on it.